Test Time for Israel's Moderates

...In addition, Rabin has the avowed support of the mainly Arab Communist Party (3 seats) and the Arab Democratic Party (2 seats), but he has made it clear that he won't stay in office if the fate of his government depends on these five votes...

...Settlements in the periphery of Jerusalem and in the Jordan Valley, however, will be strengthened...

...Nevertheless, the elections revealed a weakening of extremes in the body politic...

...For Likud, the corresponding numbers were roughly 25 per cent and merely 18-19 per cent...

...The stage was set for a bloody clash, but after 48 hours of negotiations mediated by West Bank notables, bloodshed was averted: Six wanted terrorists agreed to go into voluntary three-year exile in Jordan, and not to engage in any hostile activities in that period...

...So even among the voters of the Right, apparently, a large number of Israelis are ready to trade land for peace...

...Although 40 per cent consider themselves "Rightists," Likud and the parties to the Right garnered only 35 per cent of the vote...

...They have threatened "public action" and warned Rabin "not to push the hotheads into a corner...

...There will be no new ideologically motivated settlements in the territories, nor will existing ones be expanded...

...True, Labor owes its victory largely to the simple fact that Yitzchak Rabin, who replaced the more sophisticated Shimon Peres as party chairman, proved a popular vote-getter...

...Despite the widespread anger and frustration caused by intifada knifings in Jewish neigh borhoods, Moledet, a party that advocates the "transfer" of West Bank Arabs to Arab countries, picked up only one additional seat...

...With the impending retirement of Shamir and the withdrawal from politics by former Defense Minister Moshe Arens?who said, practically in so many words, that he disagreed with the party's "not an inch" policy vis-a-vis the Arabs—a free-for-all fight for the top post is anticipated...

...This would mean a contest pitting the "princes" (sons of old Revisionist Party leaders), Benjamin Begin, Dan Meridor, Uzi Landau, and Benjamin Netanyahu, against the up-from-the-ranks younger Sephardis, Moshe Katzav, Meir Sheetrit and Ovadia Eli...

...But participation in Arab areas was considerably below that in Jewish areas, and an estimated 60 per cent of the Arab votes went to non-Arab parties...

...Likud, the main Rightist party, lost about 20 per cent of its seats...

...Again, this demonstrates that many of the center votes went to Labor...

...Perhaps more important, polls have found that only 25 per cent of the voters for Likud and other Rightist parties claim to support the "whole Land of Israel" movement, and 63 per cent say they are ready for territorial compromise with the Palestinians...

...the PLO urged them to unite their lists of candidates...

...A group of PLO terrorists, some of whom were on Israel's most-wanted list, took refuge in An Najah University...

...There appears to be a significant difference between the voting pattern and the ideological self-image of the electorate...

...They felt that Likud had failed to create employment opportunities for the masses of university educated newcomers...

...Few in Israel would write an insurance policy on the group's long-term cohesion...

...They want to get the Israelis off their backs as much as possible, rather than score points in a prestige contest," a top Israeli official remarked to journalists...

...Several segments of the electorate shifted their support enough for Rabin and the Labor Party to send Prime Minister Yitzchak Shamir and his Likud bloc into opposition after 15 years of rule...

...It is estimated that the new Russian immigrants gave Labor three Knesset seats and Likud one...

...Eltahu Salpeter, a regular NL con tributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...One of the major surprises was provided by the Israeli Arabs, who make up more than 10 per cent of the electorate...

...What the Knesset balloting produced was a landslide, not an earthquake...

...Still, few doubt that one immediate effect of the Labor victory has been to improve the climate for the peace process—or, as Rabin calls it, "peacemaking...

...On the eve of Secretary of State James A. Baker Ill's July 19 visit to Jerusalem, and of Rabin's scheduled meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak two days later in Cairo, a potentially ugly confrontation flared in the West Bank...

...Exit polls found that Labor, with about 37 per cent of the total vote, received 47 per cent of the Russian immigrants' ballots...

...But more levelheaded Likud leaders, such as outgoing Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliahu Ben Elisar, have cautioned that the public is not willing to spend money on settlements...

...Gaier's conclusion: Labor won in 1992 by attracting the middle-aged, better-educated Israelis of European origin, a reversal of the situation in 1977 when Likud won by gaining the support of the less educated, lower income and mostly younger Sephardic community...

...Interestingly, neither of two Russian parties elected a single Knesset member...

...These steps earned Rabin praise from Baker in Jerusalem, and an invitation to visit President George Bush at his summer home in Kennebunkport, Maine...

...This was the first time, too, that the indigenous Palestinian leaders assented to the expulsion of troublemakers fom the disputed territories...

...On the other hand, while only 24 per cent consider themselves as "belonging to the Left," Labor, Meretz and parties to the Left received 49 per cent of the vote...

...Excessive expectations could, in fact, quickly dissolve the present optimistic mood here...

...For the Palestinians, it was very important that Israel had recognized there were some cases where the exercise of overwhelming power was not the best course...

...Shortly after taking office, he announced a temporary freeze on new housing and road construction in the West Bank and Gaza...

...Consequently, the dominant party has always been obliged to form a coalition, and has been the hostage of its partners' ideological or mercenary blackmail...

...All that can be said for certain at the moment is that Rabin, like all Israeli Prime Ministers, will have to make concessions to the Orthodox community that could go beyond matters of religious observance...

...A similar response greeted Secretary Baker's statement in Amman that, in his view, there was no difference between "political" and "security" settlements...

...There followed a review of the entire program by Housing Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer (a retired general and former military governor of the West Bank), which included distinguishing between "security" and "political" settlements...

...Most observers, though, felt the deal represented a substantial achievement...

...Although each side asserted that the An Najah compromise was not a precedent, for Israel it was important that the Palestinian students ultimately agreed to the extradition of terrorists hiding in their midst...

...Communist and Arab lists sent only five representatives to the Knesset...

...A long private meeting between the two men ended with Peres accepting a division of authority: Matters pertaining to Palestinian autonomy will be under the Prime Minister's control and implemented jointly...

...The same trend emerged in what Shamir fondly calls "the national [read nationalistic] camp...

...Most of them went to Tsomet, headed by former Chief of Staff Rafael Eitan, who managed to cultivate a more rational nationalist image...

...Besides its main partner, the newly formed Meretz (12 seats), it had to strike a bargain with the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party (6 seats) to gain a narrow majority...

...Actually, there are no serious differences between Rabin and Peres on basic policy issues...

...Of the older generation, Ariel Sharon and David Levy have remained in the race...

...But Arens' departure, instead of improving their chances, has strengthened calls to revitalize the party by handing it over to the "young"?0 to 50?leadership...

...His position is noteworthy for two reasons: First, Meretz is a grouping of three small parties—the Leftist Mapam, the greenish Citizens' Rights Party and the liberal-bourgeois Shinui...

...Representatives of the settlers and Right-wing politicians have reacted vehemently to these declarations, and to the freeze on building in the territories...

...Whether the ploy will succeed is anybody's guess...

...He appeared somewhat more flexible on the issue of West Bank settlements, and much more liberal on social and religious questions...

...Moslem fundamentalist preachers, in a departure from the past, called on them to go to the polls...

...Rabin would have preferred to name Peres the Finance Minister and keep him away from political affairs, but he wanted the foreign ministry...

...David Levy has advised that the Labor-led government will soon face an unpleasant choice: either accede to Arab demands and give much more than intended, or be accused of putting obstacles in the way of the peace process...

...Further, it was significant that Israel accepted at face value a Palestinian declaration about the number of terrorists at the university and the weapons they possessed...

...A close look at Israel' s general election last June 23, while encouraging optimism, underscores the point...

...The realization of a mutual interest in finding a peaceful resolution to the An Najah crisis appears to bode well for the autonomy talks, now set to resume August 24...

...It would indeed be a mistake for the Arabs and for Washington to expect Rabin to go beyond certain "red lines...

...Likud's rigid policy problems were compounded by the noisy (and televised) infighting that marked the drawing up of its Knesset candidates list...

...Second, Shas is under heavy pressure from the other two religious parties to reverse its stand and quit the Rabin team...

...they were mostly of European origin and belong to the generation (now 40 to 50 years old) that did its military service when Rabin was Chief of Staff...

...Naturally, all Rightist spokesmen reacted with a gleeful "I told you so" when President Mubarak declared that the freeze on construction contracts in the disputed territories was "a good beginning, but we expected Prime Minister Rabin to do more...

...Rightly or wrongly, they complained that their standard of living was worsening, while the sons of the old Likud leaders were getting plush patronage jobs and the new Russian immigrants were getting many material goodies...

...This reverses a "separatist" trend observed since the late '70s, and suggests that PLO and fundamentalist influences among Israel's Arab citizens may be weaker than generally believed...

...To protect them, 2,000 Palestinian students started a sit-down strike...

...all other areas of foreign policy will be in Peres' domain as Foreign Minister...

...Kalman Gaier, whose daily polls contributed much to Labor's campaign tactics, has prepared an illuminating analysis of the changes reflected in the election results: Fifteen per cent of former Likud voters switched to Labor...

...They also said that "there must remain an Israeli presence on the Golan Heights," but that some room exists for accommodating Syrians...

...Negotiations with the Palestinians will be accelerated, the goal being to complete the autonomy talks within 9-12 months...

...Both Rabin and Peres have pointedly said that in entering the Madrid talks, the Shamir government has already re-endorsed UN Resolution 242, which implies the principle of territorial concession...

...Among the Arab candidates, support for the Communists and ultranationalists declined, and support for those affiliated with Labor increased...

...But there was more to their anger than just ethnic pique at being denied any of the upper slots on the party's list...

...The Secretary hinted that the U. S. would discuss releasing at least part of the $10 billion in immigrant absorption loan guarantees held up because of Israel's past settlement policies...

...Predictably, former Housing Minister Ariel Sharon and other Rightist leaders accused Rabin of "capitulating to Arab terror...

...The battle culminated in the disaffection of Foreign Minister David Levy and his constituency, consisting of the Sephardi (mainly North African) lower-middle and working classes, whose shift to Menachem Begin brought Likud to power 15 years ago...

...Both campaigned for a "reordering of national priorities": From now on, investment in jobs and housing for new immigrants and for the unemployed in development towns will take precedence over expenditures in the West Bank, Gaza and the Golan Heights...

...His performance as Army Chief of Staff during the Six Day War, and as Defense Minister in the national unity government at the height of the intifada, made him "safe" enough for many mid-hawkish Likud voters to switch their tickets...

...Laboritself took only 44 seats...

...Israeli border police quickly surrounded the campus...

...Previously, both they and Washington had denounced all such actions...

...Moreover, in contrast to the '70s, when the people coming from the USSR equated Labor's socialism with hated Communism, those arriving in the late '80s and early '90s have been well aware of the difference between Western-type democratic socialism and Soviet-style Communist dictatorship...

...Four and one half per cent of the Likud voters went all the way to the Leftist Meretz, but Likud also lost another 8 per cent, mostly in the under-30 age group, to Tsomet...

...Tenia, the biggest of the extreme-Right parties in the outgoing Knesset, was wiped out completely...

...But the "turnaround" was not sufficiently deep to overcome the fundamental weakness of the country's politics: Under its proportional representation system, no party has ever obtained a majority in the 120-seat Parliament...

...It showed that there could be negotiation with the Palestinians even in a most sensitive situation, if everyone wished to avoid escalation...

...four other Arabs and Druzes were elected on non-Arab lists...

...virtually all other building plans for the territories were scrapped...

...Among the religious parties, the more tolerant gained and the more bigoted lost ground...

...Most recent immigrants from Russia, though, backed Labor...

...Since the solution was proposed by the established local leadership and initially rejected by the terrorists and the students, its acceptance also indicated the influence and inclinations of responsible Palestinians...

...It is difficult to say what impact such revelations will have on Likud's reorganization, let alone the peace process...

...In terms of foreign relations, the sequence of events seemed to be a textbook example of how a moderate policy shift could produce major positive results...

...To cement Shas' allegiance, Labor has sought to attract the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Party to the coalition with various inducements...

...There will be no return to the 1967 frontiers, no independent Palestinian state on the West Bank, and no decision on the final fate of the territories within the four-year tenure of the present Knesset...

...Finally, it was decided that only units already under way would be completed...

...Yet political realities in both camps suggest that too much should not be expected too soon...

...On the Labor side, after some initial frictions between Rabin and his old opponent Shimon Peres, things are working out better than expected...

...Had they all voted for any of the Arab national parties (or the Communists), they could have elected at least 12 Knesset members...

...Though Rabin's government has a respectable67 to53 edge in the Knesset, those numbers don't tell the whole story...