Italy's Germany Problem
SENIGALLIA, SIVIO F.
A MATTER OF CLOUT Italy's German Problem BY SILVIO F. SENIGLLIA Rome New York Governor Mario M. Cuomo's announcement that he would stay out of the 1992 Presidential race was a keen...
...Nor did Russia's takeover of the permanent UN Security Council seat that had been occupied by the Soviet Union bother Italy the way it did Germany and Japan, whose aspirations to it were no secret...
...Rutskoi, whose statement cracked the unity of the presidential team formed last June, further decried the lack of democracy and actual powerlessness of the new government in the Russian Republic, and the consequent prevalence of chaos and anarchy...
...Few here bought the line that New York State's budget difficulties were the real reason the Governor opted out of the national race...
...That is, they will wait until they are forced to act by the course of domestic events and/or the heavy pressure of the international community...
...ly worried about how they will ultimately be affected by the chaotic transformation of the Soviet Union, since they tend to think the Commonwealth of Independent States has little chance of survival...
...The same day Rome's Messaggero condemned Bonn's raising the interest rates to the highest level in 60 years and its recognizing Slovenia and Croatia without waiting for the entire EC to do so on January 15...
...Written by Vittorio Zucconi, one of the paper's U.S...
...The other is a reduction of the cost of labor, but that is especially difficult in an election year...
...Unhappy about having to join the parade, particularly after the Italian Banking Association had ruled out any change in interest rates, the Rome government lamely explained that "conditions in the Italian economy did not permit divergence from the rates of other EC countries...
...The transportation and distribution of perishable foodstuffs must be carefully planned if they are to reach their intended destination...
...To be competitive again in Europe's markets?as the American Express Bank publication, AMEX, has suggested—Italy has to choose between two bitter prescriptions...
...Foreign Minister Gianni De Michelis took care to note, though, that Italy's economic commitments were directed not only to Russia but also to the other republics in the Commonwealth, as will soon be "better clarified.' With regard to food shipments, the first priority during the Yeltsin talks, clarification—a conveniently vague, frequently recurring term in the Italian political discourse—is indeed needed...
...To defend its currency against the German mark, the Bank of France was forced to raise interest rates on December 21 for the second time in five weeks, and thereby added to the pressure that has been weakening the U.S...
...A corresponding increase by Spain indicates the extent of the chain reaction set into motion by Germany's unexpected move...
...The lead paragraph of a news analysis in the Rome daily Repubblica last December 21 concluded, "Thus Mario has betrayed once again and betrayed three times, like Peter in the Gospel, before the cock of the primaries started to crow...
...A MATTER OF CLOUT Italy's German Problem BY SILVIO F. SENIGLLIA Rome New York Governor Mario M. Cuomo's announcement that he would stay out of the 1992 Presidential race was a keen disappointment to many Italians...
...They fear that the Bundesbank's challenge will hurt economic growth everywhere in Europe, reducing the chances of recovery in 1992...
...Italians had come to like and trust Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, and would have felt reassured even if he had remained on the job as merely the titular head of a powerless central government...
...Although Italians may no longer be awed by superpower America's global supremacy and military might, they still look upon it as the protector of Western Europe...
...One is a substantial devaluation, but that could harm its financial credibility...
...correspondents, the piece went on to charge that Cuomo had betrayed the Italians, who were beginning to savor the idea of seeing a "paisano" elected to the Oval Office in Columbus' quincentenary year and having the Godfather stigma erased...
...For Italy, all this has contributed to quite gloomy short-range prospects, since the lira is not strong in the European Monetary System and the economy is far from dynamic at present...
...Italian financial circles are angry about Germany arrogantly disregarding the agreement reached by the EC leaders in Maastricht on December 11, and thus breaking the promise everyone made not to take unilateral currency actions without prior consultation...
...economy, the plummeting of President Bush's popularity and the apparent weakness of the Democrats actively pursuing their party's nomination had gradually raised expectations here...
...Pointing to hints dropped by the American media concerning an alleged "Mafia connection,' they saw a slur on his ethnicity and seethed with rage and humiliation...
...the second is the impact of German policy on this country's economic problems...
...Picking up the sharply critical tone of America's major newspapers, the Italian press also chastised the Governor for his inability to make decisions, lack of guts and intellectual conceit...
...The official communique referred to the seriousness of the country's inflation, but refrained from commenting on the negative effect a higher cost of credit will inevitably have on the growth of the Italian economy...
...By now the hand-wringing over Cuomo has run its course...
...On two other issues the Italian government has similarly found itself taking the German rather than American view...
...An advantage enjoyed by a second-rate power like Italy is that it does not have to worry about setting global strategy...
...This state of affairs, coupled with Italian inefficiency, suggests that despite bright smiles, firm handshakes and well-meant promises, Italian assistance will be late in materializing...
...To them nato equals United States...
...More important, in the wake of the Bundesbank's mid-December interest hike it has just raised the discount rate charged on loans to banks from 11.5 to 12 per cent...
...What at first looked like a long shot had slowly turned into an attractive bet, encouraging the Italian man in the street to maximize Cuomo's chances...
...The January 2 announcement that Chancellor Helmut Kohl had asked the European Community to give the German language equal weight with English and French was seen as additional evidence that Bonn is exercising growing boldness...
...The criticism of Yeltsin's economic approach made by Russian Vice President Aleksandr Rutskoi on the very eve of the Rome visit does not inspire confidence...
...Behind that question lurks a concern about the control of the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons and the command of its 3.7 million-member Armed Forces...
...In fact, Italy has been inclined to agree with Germany that aid to the CIS from EC members should be organized within the framework of the Community, and initially saw no need for the January 23-24 international conference on the subject held in Washington...
...Rome's recognition of the CIS occurred almost automatically, under the aegis of the European Community (EC...
...dollar...
...Italians have shifted their attention to two other issues that are likely to be in the headlines for many months...
...In addition, said Zucconi, Cuomo betrayed the Democrats, leaving them without a strong candidate, as well as all those looking forward to a high-level campaign between two eminently qualified contestants...
...On December 20, Repubblica ran a banner headline that read, "Europe Under the German Ax...
...The gloomy prospects for the U.S...
...This unhappiness has been reflected in the finance pages of Italy's major dailies...
...Unlike their government, Italian businessmen are more worried about the moderately severe recession than the rate of inflation, which is high yet fairly stable at 6.4 per cent...
...Disappointment breeds bitterness...
...When Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin paid a state visit to Rome on December 19 he was promised "concrete help," including $1.3 billion in credits and support for Russia's admittance to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank...
...What can Washington do, they ask, to prevent the disintegration of the Commonwealth formed by 11 republics intoxicated with a newly found independence...
...Ignoring pressures from the Bush Administration, it gave de facto recognition to the independence of Slovenia and Croatia before the EC's official step in that direction...
...But in the areas of trade with, and humanitarian assistance for, the 11 Commonwealth republics, Italy could hardly retain a detached posture...
...Those steps, the paper said, were proof of united Germany's determination to exert political leverage commensurate with its economic clout...
...With a touch of naivete, perhaps, they had been entertaining the hope that this man named Mario would not only be the first Italian-American candidate for the White House but would actually replace George Bush...
...My own feeling is that Italy's rulers will decide not to decide...
...And most people in Italy are deepSilvio F. Senigallia reports regularly for The New Leader on Italian affairs...
...One is Washington's policy toward the ex-Soviet Union...
Vol. 75 • January 1992 • No. 1
