The Changing Shape of Our Politics

...It is now common to refer to 1992 as The Year of the Woman, and to attribute the phenomenon to the abortion rights controversy as well as to the insensitive treatment of Anita F. Hill by members of the Senate Judiciary Committee during the Clarence Thomas hearings...

...The focus began to change from "what I can do" to "what we must do," from the personal to the public interest...

...For those who track meaningful movements, however, the year has already provided evidence that the times are changing??even if a majority of the Electoral College does not vote for a "change" after November 3. To begin with, a generational shift is under way in American politics...

...Why are the young eyeing the Democrats with a newfound affection...

...Indeed, their attraction to conservatism led some political buffs to conclude the GOP was the party of the future...

...tering the sexual composition and political preferences of the electorate...

...In 1924, the Progressive Party coalition that supported Wisconsin Republican Robert La Follette for President provided a stepping stone for a wide assortment of radicals, laborites, reformers, and liberal Republicans who elected Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932...

...the unsuccessful got what they deserved...

...Finally, 1992 is the year discontented American voters displayed their volatility, their readiness to join a third party movement...

...In the 1890s, the basically agrarian Populist Party provided a way for aggrieved Republican farmers to join with the more urban Democrats to back William Jennings Bryan and, at a later point, to elect Wood-row Wilson...

...Second, the young find it easier to identify with the rallying cries of the youthful Clinton and Al Gore than with the whining of Bush or the stuffy sermons of Dan Quayle...

...Its bifurcated behavior was not atypical...

...But it does mean that, like the rest of America, the South is now contestable turf...

...Ever since 18-year-olds were given the right to vote, they have shown little inclination to exercise the franchise...

...That is a startling reversal of the expected...

...Demographics favor the female: There are more women of voting age than men...

...Further, a higher percentage of them turn out on Election Day...

...That lock is probably about to be broken, and not simply because the Democratic ticket is made up of two Southern Baptists from two states of the Confederacy...

...The numbers will probably not stay constant through the actual balloting, but they strongly indicate the 18 -29 generation will be heavily pro-Clinton...

...More important is the South's changing perception of the Democratic Party on the national level...

...Today there are clear signs that the Democratic Party is being viewed differently...

...After he quit the race, the newborn movement continued a transformation that neither he nor his followers ever envisaged...

...With one exception, during the past 24 years it has shied away from Democratic Presidential candidates while electing Democratic Representatives and Senators to Congress...

...The carefully scripted, efficiently executed July convention in New York's Madison Square Garden did much to revive the languishing organization...

...This may not be apparent on Election Day, because the deep undercurrents of our politics will be obscured by the surface glitter of the vote count...

...In a few weeks, the young, the women, the new South, the unhappy voter in search of a new home will go to the polls...

...In 1988, the region went 3-2 for George Bush over Michael S. Dukakis...

...This sort of thing has happened before...

...Given the discernible shift in their attitude, the number of young voters going to the polls in November should be surprisingly high...

...First, the economic slide has taken place on Bush's watch, making him the Herbert Hoover of 1992...

...American politics also is undergoing a sex change...

...Two other factors have helped to concretize the new mood...

...Perot's appearance had three unintended effects...

...Yet even leaving such issues aside, women incline toward the Democratic Party...

...The '72 convention gave the impression of a party dominated by beaded, bearded Bohemians, surrounded by poor blacks, rich Jews and balding labor bosses...

...The formerly masculine creature is taking on decidedly feminine features...

...Theirs may be the decisive voice in the election...

...In part, this appears to be related to so many being away at school and having scant interest in their temporary local communities...

...First, he drew fire from the Republican Party, thereby deflecting attention from the attacks on Clinton's character...

...Then came the recession, a blow that hit not only blue collar guys and gals but young professionals and executives and a legion of business school graduates armed with MBAs...

...Although both undoubtedly galvanized female participation in politics, the process has been long in the making...

...We may, in fact, be on the threshold of The Century of the Woman in American politics...

...In the previous three Presidential elections, younger voters drifted steadily into the Republican camp...

...The people who grew up in the heady days of Ronald Reagan's "prosperity" were easily persuaded that collective action to cope with societal problems was unnecessary: The successful deserved what they got...

...Second, he made it respectable for Bush voters of '88 to break from the President, and even to loathe him for what he did not do to boost the economy and what he was doing to put down their hero of the hour...

...In 1976, the South did swing to Jimmy Carter, but it left him in 1980 when he was perceived to be merely another bleeding heart with a Georgian jawbone...

...The basic reason may be a growing recognition that "me-ism" is not enough, that" we-ism" is needed...

...Not insignificantly, the gender gap has drawn more women to the Democratic than the Republican column...

...A large number of former Bush voters were deeply disillusioned with the President...

...The media tend to treat the quadrennial White House contest as if it were a horse race or a prize fight at some highly hyped circus...

...Yet if their only choice from the outset had been Clinton or Bush, they would have had a hard time reaching for the Democratic lever...

...A Harris poll taken in mid-July found that voters aged 18-24 favored Bill Clinton over George Bush by 74 per cent to 25 per cent, while among those aged 25-29 the ratio was 68 to 30...

...Whatever the outcome, though, these currents will continue to run, and to carve the contours of America's future...

...The subsequent energetic, no-nonsense campaigning of the party's standard-bearers has been another big plus...

...Thus the next century may very well witness a more passionate and more compassionate kind of politics...

...Other sections of the country responded similarly to an image of the national Democratic Party that was formed??for some, indelibly??by the 1968 and 1972 conventions...

...It comes closer to meeting what repeated polls reveal most consider vital, namely a concern for the welfare of the entire community...

...Many would have gone fishing on Election Day...

...Its Electoral College vote, of course, went totally to the Republican candidate, seemingly confirming that the South has given the GOP a lock on the Presidency...

...Third, Perot's withdrawal statement on the eve of Clinton's nomination, in which he declared that he was not needed because the Democratic Party had been revitalized, made it legitimate for members of the third party movement??never a real "party"??to transfer their votes to the Arkansas Governor...

...Starting with the Seneca Falls convention in the 19th century, when some women dared to claim the right to vote, and continuing past the enfranchisement of females in the first quarter of this century, women have been inexorably alGus Tyler, a frequent contributor, is Assistant President of the ILGWU...

...In part, the light turnout has reflected their concentration on private rather than public matters...

...The '68 riots gave the impression of a party unable to govern itself, let alone the nation...

...This does not mean that the South is in the Democratic bag...

...In 1860, the recently born Republican Party provided an instrument whereby Northern Democrats could unite with Northern Whigs to keep the Southern slavocracy from running the Federal government...

...If, as appears possible, The Year of the Woman produces better than half a dozen women in the Senate, several dozen women in the House and a sprinkling of female governors, their presence in the seats of power will inspire many more women to run for public office...

...This election year promises the emergence, too, of a new South that is neither solidly Democratic nor solidly Republican in the case of choosing a Chief Executive...

...and this year, thanks to Roe v. Wade and the Hill-Thomas affair, the gap is expected to be wider...

...He gave form to their feelings...

...They did that through Ross Perot...

...How many of the younger generation will cast ballots is still uncertain...