After the Fall of Saddam

...Furthermore, the massive deployment of conventional weapons against an unscrupulous aggressor may have a crucial deterrent impact: The Gulf war has now probably established the capacity of nonnuclear armaments to assume the same peacekeeping function in a monopolar world that nuclear weapons performed in a bipolar world of mutual deterrence...

...Saddam early on made clear his belief that his mere ability to survive the enormous superpower might of the United States would be seen as a victory by most Arabs...

...stand against Moscow's old Iraqi client was evident even before a Soviet arms ship was caught en route to the Gulf of Aqaba...

...It gives President Bush a good deal of the leverage he seeks to create a "new world order" devoid of naked aggression—a concept inseparable from the necessity of preventing Iraq's (or any other local country's) domination of oil supplies and prices...

...Israelis will, in short, bemuch more reluctant than in the past to make groundbreaking concessions to the Palestinians...

...It further demonstrated that Moscow's ability to play the mischievous spoiler has merely been limited, not eliminated...

...Still, hopes for establishing a unified Middle East defense framework that would protect its members against future Saddams appear unrealistic...

...It should quickly be noted, though, that the enthusiastic support of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) for Saddam, and the cheers sent up by the Palestinians in Jordan and the occupied territories when Iraqi missiles began to come down on Israel, have reinforced the hawks' opposition to establishing a Palestinian state 20 miles from Tel Aviv...

...It would secure his future regional dominance, he was convinced, regardless of whether he was Finally obliged to get out of Kuwait...

...In an era of modern technology, strategically located thirdand fourth-class countries endowed with great amounts of cash can create political and military threats of a global nature...

...America's simultaneous involvement in the defense of most Arab countries and of Israel has set a very significant precedent...

...The Scuds confirmed the feeling of many here that the refusal of most Arab countries to accept the Jewish State's existence is a greater threat than the intifada...

...Eliahu Salpeter, a regular NL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...Of all the prominent NATO nations, Britain alone unflinchingly supported the U.S.' adherence to the Security Council resolutions during the final days before January 15...

...If the United States is truly determined, however, not to be caught again in the Middle East (or in some other regions) in a situation like the present one, it will have to bring about a basic rethinking of the politics of oil, petrodollars and arms procurement...

...was preoccupied in the Gulf, he could take advantage of the situation to repeat in Lithuania and Latvia—albeit in milder form—the Soviet suppression of Hungary in 1956 when the West was tangled in the Suez Canal crisis...

...Third, in what is hopefully the postCold War era, the Middle East remains a trouble spot that sows discord among democratic friends and is exploited in Communist power plays...

...Israel's staying on the sidelines has perhaps prompted some Arab countries to entertain the thought that their mutual cooperation with America is of greater value than maintaining their traditional hostility toward existence of the Jewish State...

...Any regional defense arrangement will probably have to be based on sets of bilateral agreements with the United States, and will require a major U.S...

...So did his speedy dispatch of American-manned Patriot missile batteries to Israel after the first Scud attack...

...other allies, notably France, sought to undermine the UN deadline...

...In the Kremlin, Mikhail S. Gorbachev apparently felt that since the U.S...

...Otherwise Israel may gain little from the sea-change in Western public opinion concerning its vulnerability when the time comes to again take up the matter of an overall Middle East settlement...

...Most of them believe the experiences of the war will have a positive impact on Washington's attitude when attention turns to settling longstanding Middle East disputes, yet they may be deluding themselves becauseof their relief that relations with the U.S...

...Viewed from a wider international perspective, the Gulf contest appears to show, first, that superpower superiority in a regional conflict does not assure the easy defeat of even an inferior and small enemy—particularly if he had the time and money to use modern technology to build up his defenses...

...The virulent anti-American tone of the peace demonstrations there reopened many questions concerning the psyche of Germany's youth and the political wisdom and maturity of the country's leaders, who failed to speak up or line up with the United States...

...Israel's patience in face of Iraqi Scud attacks also reflects tactics influenced by postwar considerations...

...On another level, the dissatisfaction of the Soviet militaryindustrial complex with Gorbachev's initial support of the U.S...

...RESHAPING THE MIDEAST After the Fall of Saddam By Eliahu Salpeter Tel Avtv Almost from the start of the fighting in the Persian Gulf one could discern the outlines of major changes likely to result in the geopolitics of the Middle East, in relations between the region and the outside world, as well as in maneuverings among the U.S., Europe and the Soviet Union...

...For although technically the war was launched to liberate Kuwait, it soon became clear that the destruction of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was Washington's ultimate objective—and that rarely if ever had the conduct of a military conflict been as strongly influenced by potential postwar policies...

...Obviously, the systematic American destruction of Baghdad's nonconventional war-making capability is of existential importance to Israel...

...Moreover, in an age where third-class countries are able to acquire chemical, biological and nuclear capabilities, regional disturbances can be dangerous for the rest of humanity...

...There cannot be a "new world order" without effective control of arms transfers and arms production...

...In addition, it has been eager to repair the badly frayed relations between President Bush and Prime Minister Yitzchak Shamir...

...This seems to have been understoodin Washington, and to have reinforced those insisting that he must suffer a crushing defeat...

...Israelis were particularly bitter: "There is certainly an improvement over World War II," one Israeli commentator remarked sarcastically...

...Jerusalem, therefore, has not wanted to do anything that could be construed as interfering with American war efforts...

...Disclosures that more than a hundred German firms illegally supplied Iraq's war machine— some 20 of them even after the imposition of the UN embargo—revived forgotten doubts about the morality of German industrialists...

...What is probably more important, doves now have grave doubts about such an entity too...

...This, in turn, requires controlling oil prices and the disposition of oil revenues—an unprecedented task, even for a superpower in a monopolar world...

...This could of course have a dramatic long-term effect...

...President George Bush's firm insistence upon sticking to the January 15 United Nations deadline for Iraq to quit Kuwait or face the consequences sharply enhanced the U.S.' credibility in this partofthe globe and beyond...

...President Bush's well-known desire to keep the listing Gorbachev afloat accounts for his mild response to the USSR's muscleflexing in the Baltics and attempts to aid Iraq, but those actions are bound to have a sobering effect on any lingering "end of the Cold War" euphoria...

...Second, the weakened condition of the Soviet Union has fundamentally altered America's role, making it the sole effective "policeman of the world...

...are close again...

...Especially disappointing was the performance of newly-united Germany...

...There is a brighter side to the Middle East scene...

...Washington will have to contend, too, with the fact that its European allies, especially France and Germany, would be most reluctant to give up their particular Mideast interests for an American-inspired scheme...

...The Germans still make gas [in Iraq] for use against the Jews, but they are willing to sell gas masks to the Israelis...

...In part, this explains Jerusalem's willingness to go along with Washington's request that it exhibit restraint and not pursue its traditional practice of instant retaliation...

...presence "over the horizon...

...But the containment of Iraq underscored the costs and restrictions of this position...