Four Mistakes about Israeli Politics

...Yet, beyond that basic division, personal ambitions contribute to political differences in both camps...

...But there is a personal angle to the vision of the two men as well...

...The clear dividing line is that nobody in Likud would openly support giving up any part of Palestine, while nobody in Labor opposes the principle of trading territory for peace...

...In terms of the recent government crises, Rabin has favored a broad coalition with Likud, while Peres would have preferred even the narrowest Labor-led coalition...

...Misunderstanding number four is that the religious parties—there are four in all, with a total of 18 Knesset seats— are confirmed hawks...

...Labor is semiformally divided into four groups: left, left-center, centerright, right...

...All his predecessors, from David Ben-Gurion to Menachem Begin, resigned in order to avoid facing what, for some curious reason, has become an ignominy in Israeli politics: being voted out of office...

...It also calls for negotiations on the whole Palestine refugee problem, so that once the West Bank and Gaza situation is resolved no attempt will be made to reopen the question of refugees returning to their former homes in what is now Israel...

...Secretary of State James A. Baker III refused to give such specific assurances...

...True, for better than a decade they have supported Likud in the hope that it would be easier to gain support for religious legislation from the Right than from the Left...

...He was not far from having been right...

...It would have given Labor a strong argument against the Prime Minister's hesitations, and would have helped Shamir counter the objections of his party's right wing...

...Their respective entourages have been telling everybody who will listen that Shamir's Knesset defeat was a personal failure...

...Shamir did not break the tradition because he decided to be unconventional...

...Shamir sought guarantees from Washington that Israel would not be required to deal with the PLO, and that the U.S...

...On the matter of concessions to the Arabs, it happens to be the moderately Orthodox and Zionist National Religious Party that has taken on a nationalist tinge and shifted to the Right...

...To forestall a hung vote in the Cabinet, Shamir fired Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres, forcing all Labor members to resign from the national unity coalition and making a no-confidence vote inevitable...

...Sharon, Deputy Prime Minister David Levy and Foreign Minister Moshe Arens had been jockeying for position to succeed Shamir...

...Since the Ben Gurion-Golda Meir days, they have been competitors for Labor's leadership...

...Still, atacit understanding developed between the Prime Minister and his circle of advisers and the Labor Party: They would move ahead together as long as irrevocable steps could be delayed to the next stage in the process...

...Peres is convinced that once the chips aredown, Likud will back out, and the latest course of events has strengthened this conviction...

...In Likud the battle is not merely between hawks and superhawks...

...About a year ago, however, the White House let him know that there was no point to his making a scheduled Washington visit unless he had some ideas for reviving the moribund peace process...

...Until the 27th name was reached in the roll call, nobody was certain whether the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party would bolt Shamir's coalition or provide the six votes he needed for a majority...

...In early March several things went wrong...

...rather, they reflect a more dovish or more hawkish attitude toward security issues, and particularly toward the Israel-Arab dispute...

...These distinctions are not related to economic or social orientation...

...It was the other way around during the '60s, when Peres and the late Moshe Dayan sided with BenGurion and Rabin was the bright boy of Golda Meir and Levi Eshkol...

...Misunderstanding number one starts with the very name "The Shamir Plan...

...Shamir discovered that some members of his own Likud faction were deserting to the hawks because they opposed the gimmick of permitting East Jerusalem residents with a second address in the West Bank to serve as representatives in talks on Palestinian elections...

...Likud, each contends, would not have been toppled if its man were in charge...

...Party Chairman Peres and second-ranking leader Rabin officially are above the factions...

...If that is true, rather than part of the PLO's disinformation efforts, it is hard to understand why Baker did not inform Israel, atleast privately...

...He believed to the last moment—literally—that his Likud Party would muster at least 60 of the 120 Knesset votes and thus block the Labor Party's noconfidence motion...

...But one should not assume it will in the end back a Labor government—or forget that conflicting religious interpretations have in the past produced considerable political chaos in Israel...

...avoiding war if possible) takes precedence over possessing the entire Holy Land...

...But they have found that on fundamental issues —such as legislating an Orthodox definition of "who is a Jew"—Likud's fear of a break with American Jewry is no less an effective barrier than Labor's ideological resistance...

...SOURCES OF CONFUSION Four Mistakes about Israeli Politics By Eliahu Salpeter Tel Avrv YrrzcHAK Shamir has the questionable honor of being the first Israeli Prime Minister to lose a no-confidence vote in the Knesset...

...Among the ultra-Orthodox, the strictest observance of the Torah's commandments has always been of paramount importance...

...Actually, a number of Shamir's closest advisers argue for a flexible Israeli stand, and Labor has its hawks...

...And Rabin had to drag along Shamir himself whenever an actual decision had to be made...

...Arab newspapers have recently published reports claiming that Washington had, in fact, already secured PLO acceptance of conditions meeting Israel's demands...

...Rabin believes the chances of pushing through a compromise with the Palestinians are better off if Likud is in the government, not heading the opposition...

...It does not simply call for elections in the West Bank and Gaza, followed by discussions on the interim and final fate of those territories...

...Eliahu Salpeter, a regular NL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...The outcome of that extremely hectic March 15 in the Knesset was more than a passing political incident: It encapsulated some of the many-sided misunderstandings that explain why, so far, the Israel-Palestine peace process has been a fruitless experiment...

...Israel views all four points as interrelated, since the last three offer the safeguards that would enable it to take the risks involved in point one...

...Misunderstanding number two concerns the substance of the "Shamir Plan...

...Whatever the case, Defense Minister Yitzchak Rabin, who was less distrusted in Likud circles than other Labor Cabinet members because of his tough stand on the intifada, convinced Shamir that Israel had to take the initiative...

...for full implementation of the Cany) David Accords—meaning complete normalization of relations between Israel and Egypt, instead of the present "cold peace...

...At present Peres is the one on top and would be the Party's candidate for Prime Minister, or head its list, should elections be held in the near future...

...Then President Bush blew up the entire delicate situation by declaring that Soviet Jewish immigrants should not be settled in East Jerusalem (annexed to Israel in 1967) because it is occupied Palestinian territory...

...Thus some of their most venerable rabbis have repeatedly said that the commandment requiring the preservation of human life (i.e...

...Probably one of the last things Shamir would ever do on his own is propose talks with West Bank and Gaza Palestinians...

...It was therefore not surprising that in the latest Cabinet crisis over negotiating with the Palestinians, former Chief Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, spiritual leader of the Shas Party, instructed his followers to urge advancing the peace process...

...and for the initiation of peace talks with the other Arab countries to end the permanent threat of war...

...After the no-confidence vote, Sharon and Levy launched full-blown campaigns to take over the party leadership...

...would not support including the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank as a subject of the negotiations...

...From the first moment, though, Rabin's "Shamir Plan" was opposed by the Likud's hawks, headed by then Industry Minister Ariel Sharon...

...Shamir has understandably complained that Washington focused exclusively on the first point, to pacify the Palestinians...

...In the interim there will be a Labor Party convention, and Rabin has a fair chance of replacing Peres at that time—if not sooner, as a result of Peres' failure to form a government on his own despite the no-confidence victory...

...The third misunderstanding has been to see the dispute over the peace process solely in terms of Likud versus Labor...

...A revival of the Labor-Likud coalition, on the other hand, could mean that elections would not take place for more than another two years...

...When he demanded further discussion of theissue, Labor felt the Prime Minister was reneging on an existing agreement and presented him with an ultimatum...

...Nevertheless, Peres is associated more with the left-center and Rabin more with the right-center of the spectrum...

...When Likudrefused, Shas supported Labor's no-confidence motion and brought down Shamir's government...