Balancing Acts in Italy

...By now most Italians are resigned to the prospect that the action against Iraq's Saddam Hussein will be a long, drawn-out and far from painless affair...

...At the same time, the outcome of the constant moves and countermoves at the top has been stagnation...

...On the other hand, since the majority of Italians are doing reasonably well, there has so far been little evidence of gloom or deep-seated pessimism...

...The second victim, a young Sicilian judge investigating a Mafia connection, was fatally ambushed by eight "soldiers" while driving to work...

...Hence procrastination and half-baked measures having barely more than a temporary cosmetic effect become the norm...

...Silvio F. Senigallia reports regularly for The New Leader on Italian affairs...

...The reason for this, despite a much higher deficit than usual and the substantial increase in the international price of oil, is that every year public expenditures run out of control and steps are announced to stem the devastating overflow...

...The government already must quickly find roughly $44 billion to bring the present deficit to an "acceptable" level of $114 billion...

...That has emboldened the Mafia in Sicily, the Nrangheta in Calabria and the Camorra in Naples to intensify their flaunting of the State's authority...

...In the case of the DC, a vocal and articulate left wing, headed by former Prime Minister Ciriaco De Mita, is pushing for a sweeping reform of the electoral system and is welcoming support from the Communists (PCI...

...Even the political and economic experts who have expressed support for the program and would like to see it approved in its entirety have few illusions about its longrange value...

...The main difference is that today political and economic difficulties arising from the clouded international situation often require a decisive rather than a plodding, business-as-usual executive...

...But Craxi's fistbanging and recurrent threats to topple the government notwithstanding, the benefits the PSI can reap by fishing in troubled waters are limited to gaining some additional votes and an occasional plum...

...and (3) the increasing boldness of organized crime outfits...

...Regardless of the good intentions or specific competence of individual participants, even enacting the program agreed upon prior to the formation of a cabinet invariably proves impossible...

...It therefore stresses the need to reduce interest rates and encourage expansion...

...It is no better or worse than most previous similar alignments...

...The general reaction has inclined toward "What else is new...

...The Communists, however, are themselves split over leader Achille Occhetto's campaign to alter their name to the Democratic Party of the Left, and to introduce a new emblem in which the traditional hammer and sickle would be overshadowed by a large leafy tree...

...The experts on both sides offer impressive technical reasons for their views...

...The coalition now in office is headed by veteran statesman Giulio Andreotti, whose Christian Democratic Party (DC) won 35 per cent of the vote in the last election, and includes Bettino Craxi's Socialists (PSI), who took 14 per cent of the vote, plus three minor CenterLeft parties...

...In the first place, there is the matter of "too little too late...

...Intra-party deals are unavoidable, and frequently personality clashes result in endless sniping and bickering...

...What is more troubling, who would win is far from certain...

...In addition, local refineries and distributors were pressing heavily for further raises, and a threeday nationwide strike was called by service station attendants...

...Through the indiscriminate use of violence, these crime organizations are perverting and corrupting the official system—physically eliminating judges, policemen and ordinary citizens unwilling to yield to bribes or fear...

...Second, deep fear and traditional omertà (conspiracy of silence) would inhibit indispensable collaboration on the part of the public...

...Conditions have so deteriorated that Sicilian judges have difficulty getting life insurance policies...

...What he sees does not make him happy...

...By contrast, the people at large know next to nothing about interest rate cycles, stagflation or the implications of European economic unificationin 1992 for Italy...

...The changes are anathema to the old guard, who resent any association with the demise of Eastern Europe's Communist parties...

...Alas, the truth is not always palatable...

...The problem, again, is that in a country with a proportional electoral system and no powerful majority party the executive is necessarily weak...

...It is not that Andreotti, Craxi and their associates are insensitive to these events...

...At the end of September, two murders committed on the same day shook Italian public opinion to the core...

...Consequently, it warns against a policy of expansion, arguing that at best this would yield only modest benefits, yet would pose a substantial risk because the prognostications promise an inflation rate in 1991 no lower than 7.5 per cent...

...Tears are shed by officials, warnings are voiced, promises are made—and the number of murders continues to climb...

...Amid all this discord the Socialists are seeking to capitalize on their seeming tactical advantage...

...One group of economists maintains that the first concern should be the threat of an imminent recession...

...Last but not least, the web of private interests tying local administrators, entrepreneurs and large numbers of otherwise idle blue-collar workers to the criminal factions would effectively hamper any strategy devised by the State...

...Andreotti's present attempts to govern the country have been further complicated by three factors: (1) the fragmentation of his own Christian Democratic Party...

...The problem with coalitions, of course, is that their ability to function is sharply restricted by the constant need for compromise...

...FROM THE GULF TO THE MAFIA Balancing Acts in Italy BY SILVLO F. SENIGALLIA Rome The number of incurable optimists still expecting to see Italy's sailors in the Persian Gulf back with their families before the year's end is steadily decreasing...

...He wants to cut spending (mostly in the area of national health insurance), raise excise taxes, and sell off large parcels of State-owned real estate as well as shares in banks and financial institutions owned or controlled by the government...

...The Socialists do have veto power...

...Carli's presentation of the long overdue measures—"sacrifices for us all made necessary by our European association"—has not produced the upsurge of confidence the government probably was looking for...

...A second group recalls with a shudder the hasty lowering of interest rates in 1975 that paved the way to a severe currency crisis and rapid inflation...

...Nonetheless, they appear to sense a period of lean years approaching and to have little faith in Rome's capacity to cope with the forthcoming troubles...

...As in other industrial countries, there are at least two schools of thought here on how to proceed...

...Since a succession of national administrations have lacked the determination (and possibly the votes) to pass an unpopular incomes policy or massively cut back waste, ambitious pronouncements and rosy previsions have come to seem like the same old song...

...A 16year-old boy, possibly related to a minor drug pusher, was killed in broad day light in a coffee bar near Naples filled with customers...

...2) the Socialists' insatiable ambition...

...But the concern being voiced throughout the country these days tends to focus on the economic rather than the military aspects of the crisis...

...Furthermore, although Carli's package is larger than those of his predecessors, much of it is earmarked for the next fiscal year...

...I do not know whether an equally tragic event is required for the government to "declare war" on the Mafia and other circles of organized crime...

...Thus by the end of 1991 over 50 per cent of the anticipated savings will be a used-up palliative...

...For although the DC may well be divided and unhappy over needing the PSI placet to keep Andreotti in office, as the dominant party it possesses the muscle to hold Craxi down to size...

...they do not have sufficient strength to seriously broaden their range of influence...

...At the end of September Treasury Minister Guido Carli unveiled a blueprint for an austerity package that he hopes Parliament will approve before the year is out...

...The average Italian, moreover, views the effects of the Gulf intervention on the cost of living index in the wider context of an economy beset both by a staggering deficit and a rising inflation rate that currently is hovering around 7 per cent...

...In 1978, only after the abduction and murder of DC leader Aldo Moro was the emergency legislation passed that ultimately brought about the defeat of the Red Brigades...

...This is hardly surprising, because Italy's contribution to the multinational force in the Middle East is scarcely more than symbolic, while in early October the cost of a gallon of gasoline had risen to the equivalent of $5.12 a gallon...