Contemplating Saddam's Weaknesses

...Officers don't forgive such a mistake...

...Leaders of the Left-wing Mapam Party and several well-known Leftist intellectuals have publicly warned Arafat that unless he disassociates himself from Saddam, they will suspend their effort to promote the legitimacy of the PLO...

...This has therefore become the central aim of his foreign policy, overriding his desire to improve relations with the Arabs...

...Turkey remembers that it gained acceptance into NATO through the tough resolve and top fighting qualities of its troops in the Korean War...

...The parallel legend of a war-steeled Iraqi home front is similarly an exaggeration...

...Now President Turgut Ozal sees joining the EC as the key to solving his country's economic problems...

...It is questionable whether Saddam could satisfy those needs even if Teheran were willing to fully cooperate, and Iranian leaders have said they will not violate the provisions of the UN Security Council sanctions...

...The dispute promises to be an extended one, if not an armed showdown, and Ankaraneeds Western support...

...For example, Iraq's making concessions to formally end the 10-year war with Iran so that it could concentrate all of its efforts on one front may have seemed an obviously wise step...

...Simultaneously, an all-pervasive and exceptionally ruthless security service eliminated the slightest signs of criticism...

...sooner or later the head of state responsible for it must pay the price...

...The project poses a threat to the entire agriculture of Syria and Iraq...

...Nobody doubted, either, that Israel has as much at stake in the confrontation with Iraq as any other country, Kuwait included...

...The public's behavior has been equally impressive: There have been no signs of panic, despite the general assumption that some Iraqi missiles could get through Israel's defenses should a hot war break out...

...Without French and Russian aims and American interdiction of Iran's oil exports, Baghdad could never have been the victor...

...Living almost next door to Iraq, Israel naturally has a vital interest in keeping a close watch on Saddam...

...Egypt's standing with the United States against Iraq is, more than symbolically, an echo of the ancient rivalry between the Nile Valley and the Valley of the Tigris and the Euphrates...

...In Israel, the unconditional enthusiasm of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) for Iraq's aggression has come as an unpleasant surprise to Israeli doves...

...Whatever its final outcome, Saddam's attack on Kuwait has already had a fundamental impact on the role of the great powers in the Middle East, on inter-Arab relations, and on the IsraelArab conflict...

...Besides demonstrating the significance of the end of the Cold War in terms of eliminating the danger of a regional conflict triggering a superpower confrontation, it has shown the greatly limited ability local parties now have to manipulate their patrons...

...A few politicians—on both the Likud and the Labor Party sides—have been foolish enough to make long-term predictions about where events are heading, or have let the ax they wish to grind get the better of them...

...Even if one accepts that Iraq won on points, the real reasons were the enormous backing the West, the Soviets and the oil-rich Arab countries gave Baghdad, and their protracted starvation of Teheran's war machine...

...Second, Ankara is facing a clash with Baghdad because of an argument over water...

...Moreover, it is doubtful that Iran, after a decade of fierce hostilities and centuries of mutual hatred, will suddenly relax its guard and enable Baghdad to move mostofits troops west...

...Today it has been translated into the claim of the strong to the riches of the weak, introducing a revolutionary change in relations among Arab nations: Never before has one Arab country openly occupied another Arab country and declared that its naked aggression was committed in the name of Arab unity...

...Turkey has offered to guarantee the continuation of the present flow of water, but Saddam demands that Turkey share with Iraq the total volume of what it will gain from the dams...

...As for the common wisdom concerning the effect the Kuwaiti crisis would have on oil prices, while they did rise considerably there has been far less fuss than after the Yom Kippur War or the fall of the Shah...

...Because of Saddam's fear of conspiracies, top officers are constantly rotated (and occasionally executed), depriving the Army of a solid command structure...

...The hasty unconditional concessions to Iran have in addition pulled a critical stone from the legend of the mighty, battle-tested, 1 million-man Iraqi Army...

...Two important considerations were involved, beginning with access to the European Community (EC...

...But from the moment President George Bush drew a line in the sand nobody here doubted that Saddam Hussein would love to present Israel as one of the main villains of his newest Middle East drama, in the hope of rallying Arab support...

...This year, Turkey is completing the Attaturk Dam (which will be the highest in the world) and 30 other dams on the headwaters of the Euphrates and the Tigris...

...Then, with a single sentence, Saddam gave it up, clearly admitting his miscalculation in going to war with Iran...

...Ozal believes that proving its importance and fidelity to the West against Iraq will earn Turkey a ticket into the EC...

...But all such matters are pretty much in suspension here at the moment anyway...

...The current tug of war may further lay to rest the legend that Iraq's inherent superiority defeated Iran...

...Iraq sacrificed hundreds of thousands of deadand wounded, plus hundreds of billions of dollars worth of factories, homes, oil production facilities, and infrastructure, primarily for the control of the Shatt-al-Arab estuary, considered a vital (and practically the only effective) outlet to the Persian Gulf...

...On the whole, though, the government and the opposition have so far acquitted themselves well, keeping statements to the minimum...

...And, for the first time since World War II, all the great powers have de facto accepted America's leading responsibility for maintaining international law and order...

...Yet given the nature and pace of present developments, the only sensible advice it can proffer is a warning against putting too much stock in the "common wisdom" or what appears to be obvious...

...The dominant psychological influence on the market is now clearly understood...

...In public opinion polls a slight majority has even supported the government's questionable logic that distributing gas masks in advance might escalate tension and provide Baghdad with an excuse for " preventive action...

...From the outset, that was not simply a struggle between the two empires but a battle between two philosophies and concepts of world order...

...THE MIDEAST TUG OF WAR-2 Contemplating Saddam's Weaknesses BY ELIAHU SALPETER Tel Aviv Much to Washington's satisfaction, Israel has maintained a studiously low profile in the Iraqi-Kuwaiti crisis...

...Actually, it was very good in defense, mediocre in attack—and at all times extremely cruel...

...But bribing the masses becomes difficult when a regime faces a tight economic embargo...

...Eliahu Salpeter, a regular NL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...Nurtured by tens of billions of dollars from his frightened and blackmailed oil-rich neighbors, Saddam kept store shelves well-stocked throughout the fighting and generously subsidized soldiers' families—including giving a new car to each one that suffered a loss...

...Turkey's firmly lining up behind the U.S., it should be noted, was no simple matter either...

...It has also pointed up the deep shared interest of the big industrial nations and the big oil producers in the stability of the oil market at reasonable price levels...

...Few doubt that a shooting war in the Persian Gulf would send prices higher, but it is known that other OPEC members can make up what has been lost by cutting off the flow of oil from Iraq and Kuwait...

...They have suddenly recalled that PLO chief Yasir Arafat only recently declared in Baghdad that the Palestinians will capture Jerusalem" on the wings of Saddam's missiles...

...Not incidentally, Iraq's Soviet-equipped Air Force proved itself second- or third-rate during the few engagements initiated by Iran's badly depleted, spare parts-starved, ammunition-shy Air Force...

...This does not mean the West should have supported the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni, but it does indicate that President Ronald Reagan and prominent Israeli experts were right to worry about putting so much weight behind Saddam...

...But to be in a position to exhaust American patience in the Saudi Desert, Iraq needs outlets to the sea to export oil and import food, spare parts and war materiel...

...Saddam's worst mistake may turn out to be failing to think about the internal reaction to his unexpected complete acceptance of Iran's conditions for ending the war...