Washington Notebook

...Where the News Ends If this is all a defining moment for the United States, it is also a defining moment for television...

...It concluded that the capital was getting ready to "enjoy a much-needed breather before picking up the pieces...

...Will the fear of recession make it harder to consider raising taxes...

...The oil embargo would surely result in more inflation and less growth, and could tip the United States into a recession...

...That was his famous "malaise" speech...

...Until now, however, it had been unwilling to place itself in the position of acting in concert with the United States against powerful Islamic forces...

...The Kingdom (I have vowed not to use "oil-rich" in this column) had accepted the role—now outdated—of bulwark against Soviet influence in the Middle East...

...In terms of the domestic economy, the oil crisis could not have come at a worse time...

...This made it easier for the President to resolve his dilemma...

...The decision wasn't even close...

...He made a speech urging acceptance of the need for sacrifice...

...But always before they had recoiled at the thought of having uniformed Americans settle in...

...Fear of Iraq had driven them to overcome their traditional trepidation at accepting an American military presence that could alienate part of the Arab world—something not even fear of Iran had succeeded in doing...

...A more fundamental question involves consumer conservation and oil industry price restraint...

...Americans were up in arms...

...He found himself widely rejected, his popularity rating sinking to a new low...

...The White House Christmas tree was lit with three-quarters of its bulbs unscrewed...

...The Saudi Arabians had bought $25 billion worth of advanced American weapons, had allowed American pilots to train the crews of their AWACS radar planes, and had extended their airfield runways to accommodate big American planes in a contingency...

...Will Americans respond as they did in 1943, when inconvenience was a patriotic act...

...It was not at all like that during the first big peacetime oil shock in 1973 when Arab suppliers, having already boosted their prices, shut down the delivery of oil to the United States because of the Nixon Administration's support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War...

...He agreed with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who said that Kuwait in 1990 was like the Rhineland in 1936—the first test of will, which, if not decisively countered, would surely be followed by other acts of aggression...

...Not until the Soviet government agreed to extend its protection to several Kuwaiti ships did the United States quickly change its course, fearing that the Soviets might gain some advantage in the Persian Gulf...

...Then he flew back to Moscow from Mongolia to make common cause in dealing with the new-era conflict touched off by the Iraqi invasion...

...Congress had gone home, leaving the budget deficit summit in a stalemate...

...President George Bush, receiving mixed signals from the intelligence community, chose to believe the Iraqi Army was merely making a show of force near the border of Kuwait, particularly since President Saddam Hussein had achieved his major objective of getting Kuwait and the Persian Gulf emirates into line on OPEC oil prices and quotas...

...In the bewildering new era, in which the Soviets have joined the Free World and the Evil Empire has been moved to Baghdad, the next big surprise was the decision of Saudi Arabia to request the protection of American planes and soldiers as part of a multinational force...

...Although this no longer seems startling, compare the present situation with the rivalry just a few years ago when the Reagan Administration declined to put the American flag on Kuwaiti tankers that were being menaced by the Iranians...

...Will it become well-nigh impossible to add a gasoline tax increase to a price increase...

...On the other hand, not acting resolutely could leave Saddam Hussein in effective control of 40 per cent of the world's oil production and have the same disastrous economic effects—plus make Bush look like a wimp...

...That question is: How united will home front support of the conflict remain when the impact of oil shortages gets through to this oilguzzling nation...

...The Kremlin announced its embargo on arms for an ally of long standing within hours after Baker requested Shevardnadze to do so...

...On August 3, Dan Rather of CBS news, seeking to steal a march on stay-at-home anchorpersons, flew to Amman, Jordan, and tried to enter Kuwait with his retinue of support personnel and equipment...

...President Carter, returning from an economic summit in Tokyo, found Americans furious at having to wait in lines at service stations for high-priced gasoline...

...Now, in a country where so much is moved by and made with petroleum products, what will happen once the excitement of a military engagement with the "new Hitler" fades and the effects of shortages on inflation, employment and America's oil-fueled way of life sink in...

...The standard put-down for those who complainedoftheshortagewas, "Don't you know there's a war on...

...This one hit at a time when the economy was already slowing down...

...While history does not repeat itself in any automatic way, two previous recessions were triggered by oil crunches...

...Unemployment had just been reported at5.2 per cent, a two-year high...

...For King Fahd and his Saudi entourage, taking that step was tantamount to crossing the Rubicon...

...It has already become a cliché, yet it is no less true, to say that the invasion of Kuwait and subsequent events represent the first international crisis of the postCold War era...

...The Soviets further proceeded to join wholeheartedly in supporting the United Nations' condemnation of Iraq and stiff sanctions resolution...

...It had even exerted discreet efforts to mediate the Arab-Israeli conflict...

...In 1977 President Jimmy Carter, calling for a national energy policy, proclaimed the energy crisis "the moral equivalent of war...

...Secretary of State James A. Baker III had been meeting with Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze in Irkutsk, Siberia, to discuss such things as the disengagement of the superpowers from Afghanistan—a relic from the days of proxy confrontation...

...Baghdad used Soviet-made tanks to penetrate Kuwait, but there would be no more Soviet tanks...

...Bushs Sense of History President Bush's decisive action— once he recovered his balance, having at first said he saw no reason for American intervention—was similarly a surprise to those observers who had translated his "prudence" as meaning that he would use American military force only in controllable situations like Panama...

...Most of us more senior citizens can remember the white-on-black "A" ration stickers on windshields, limiting those without special priority to three gallons of gasoline a week...

...The Iraqi Army turned them away...

...But as he indicated in his television address on August 8, his sense of history led him to equate Saddam Hussein in the Middle East with Adolf Hitler in Europe...

...It had befriended the Reagan Administration by aiding the Afghan guerrillas and bankrolling the Nicaraguan contras...

...Bans Trade, Joins Allies in Freezing Assets...

...It was patriotic then to get around on foot or bicycle, or simply to stay home...

...The hearings had the effect of deflecting part of the anger toward the big oil companies, charged with price gouging...

...On the international measures that ensued—an oil embargo and preparations for a naval blockade—it appeared that the Soviet Union was being consulted by the U. S. in about the same way as Britain...

...Or as in 1973 and 1979, with anger and alienation...

...World War II was the last time that Americans cheerfully put up with fuel shortages...

...Some oftheir anger was directed at Israel, with an undertone of anti-Semitism, until Democratic Senator Henry M. Jackson of Washington held widely-publicized hearings of his energy committee...

...In declaring that the occupation of Kuwait "will not stand" he painted himself into a corner of commitment, after having just emerged from his "no new taxes" box...

...He received little response...

...So, in open-neck shirt and obviously in a warm place, he opened the Evening News explaining that he was obliged to keep his location a secret...

...That, among other things, could hurt Bush's chances for reelection...

...Some of the possible ripple effects of the new oil crisis can be put only as questions: Will the momentum behind cutting the defense budget be slowed down, as suggested by the Senate vote on the Pentagon authorization...

...In 1979, America was again caught off guard when Middle East oil supplies were interrupted by the revolution in Iran...

...Thetitleof Edward Jay Epstein's 15year-old book about television had finally been fulfilled—News from Nowhere...

...They were then admitted into the Gulf emirate of Dubai but only on condition that Rather not announce where he was originating from...

...And if the budget was out of control, the cost of bailing out the savings and loan institutions threatened to go out of sight...

...A Washington Post editor, asleep at the switch, published a column by Haynes Johnson headlined, "August: Not a Moment Too Soon...

...Congress enacted the Administration's proposals for lower speed limits and banned the Sunday sale of gasoline...

...Saudi Arabia and Venezuela have promised to increase production, yet it is likely that a sharp pinch will nevertheless be felt...

...This was in the paper of August 3, which, on its front page, carried thetwo-line banner: "Iraqi Invasion Force Seizes Control of Kuwait...