Italy's DC Recycles Forlani
SENIGALLLA, SILVIO F.
POLITICAL SHUFFLING Italy's DC Recycles Forlani BY SILVIO F. SENIGALLIA Rome After several weeks of intrigue and prevarication, Italy's Christian Democratic Party (DC), nicknamed "The...
...But the Communist threat, clear and urgent in l985,hasnot necessarily faded into nonexistence because of his energy and sagacity...
...As long as the Communists do not represent a threat, King Log is the logical successor of King Stork...
...The first member of a Southern lower-middle class family to attend college, De Mita has all the assets and liabilities of his background...
...Arnaldo Forlani is a totally different kind of politician...
...Nevertheless, his return to the Palazzo Chigi would be welcome to a large number of voters...
...This state of affairs led to the weeks of behind-the-scenes deals and counter-deals, short-lived alliances and misleading statements that marked one of the blackest pages in the history of Italy's majority party...
...He has held all the major national and DC offices, except for President of the Republic, despite his unquestionable indolence...
...Silvio F. Senigallia reports regularly for The New Leader on Italian affairs...
...In the Rome daily LaRepubblica, a historically-minded editorialist went to the extent of drawing comparisons with the French Revolution (after all, this is the year of its bicentennial...
...At its National Congress held here February 19-23, Arnaldo Forlani was tapped to replace Prime Minister Ciriaco De Mita, who was kicked upstairs to the post of President of the DC National Council...
...POLITICAL SHUFFLING Italy's DC Recycles Forlani BY SILVIO F. SENIGALLIA Rome After several weeks of intrigue and prevarication, Italy's Christian Democratic Party (DC), nicknamed "The Great White Whale" for its sire and voracity, has elected a new Secretary General...
...Some observers predict that Craxi, gratified by the embarrassment of a man he has consistently disliked and at times even despised, will not threaten the status quo—at least not before the European elections scheduled to be held this June...
...First, he made the mistake of deciding to widen the authority of national headquarters...
...The frogs can go back to sleep...
...In fact, they have just been warned by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Azeglio Ciampi, that their prompt action is necessary if the situation is not to get out of control...
...Indeed, the PSI's attitude is the critical factor...
...As the unopposed chief of the DCs Leftist Southern wing, he became the party's Secretary at a time when its fortunes were at a low ebb and the feeling was that a tough hombre with Uberai views and no skeletons in his closet would be the right choice to stem a potentially dangerous decline...
...In short, De Mita is basically a powerful provincial boss who does not quite measure up to the role of a national leader...
...With their sources of power already threatened, the DC "great electors" immediately declared that a De Mita wearing two hats was more than they could take...
...To begin with, he is a good-looking, well-groomed, smooth, cautious bourgeois...
...After the undignified DC brawl, the balding, heavy-jowled, bossy Socialist—Italian political cartoonists' favorite target—looks better every day...
...They recall that until recently Forlani was Craxi's loyal sidekick, and that their personal relations have remained very friendly...
...In my opinion, at the moment Forlani has no intention of rocking the government boat...
...De Mita and Forlani could not be less alike in terms of ambition and personality...
...Neither hated nor loved, he climbs to the top when his special talents are needed, only to step down quietly when the times again require determination and aggressiveness...
...As has been the case for many years in Italy, the life and death of a government depend upon the relationship between the largest party (DC) and the one non-Communist formation (PSI) whose votes guarantee a parliamentary majority...
...Moreover, they became increasingly irritated by his unwillingness to recognize the incompatibility of the two offices and his arrogance in demanding to pick his successor...
...Of course, De Mita is still the Prime Minister, but the key word is "still...
...In the end De Mita lost the party stewardship plus a sizable portion of his prestige, since he failed in his effort to hand over the office to an amenable member of his own faction...
...According to Italy's "optimists," another factor tilting the scale in favor of a political calm spell is the re-emergence of inflation, now averaging 6 per cent and mostly caused by growing wage pressure and excessive public spending...
...Forlani, a former Prime Minister (1980-81) and the Deputy Prime Minister during the three years that Socialist Party (PSI) leader Bettino Craxi headed the government, also served as DC Secretary exactly 20 years ago...
...In further contrast with De Mita, who sees the party Secretary as a strong executive, Forlani accepts the so-called " logic of the currents" and considers himself merely primus inter pares...
...This meant waging war on the powerful correnti (factions) that make up the DC and trying to dismantle the very structure he had been appointed to preserve and protect...
...On the other hand, should an occasion arise where it is felt that a reappraisal of the government's policies and line-up would be beneficial, the Prime Minister may become expendable...
...He is as close as a Catholic politician can be to old-fashioned Fabian Socialism and the inevitability of gradualness...
...Barring exceptional circumstances, the three minor members of the coalition—the Center-Left Republicans, the Centrist Social Democrats and the Liberals—can only minimally affect the government's stability...
...Immediately after the DC Congress concluded, the Italian newspapers had a ball dissecting De Mita's defeat, using such picturesque expressions as "Swan Song," "technical KO" and "the halving of power...
...Under his leadership the Christian Democrats have scored some psychologically important electoral gains...
...And the Communists, although they represent an impressive 30 per cent of the total popular vote, can do no more than play an indispensable yet hardly decisive opposition role...
...The Forlani Secretaryship, he said, was like a return to the Directory after the Consulate—a fancy way of noting that Forlani is more conservative than De Mita...
...Then, in March 1988, De Mita was named Prime Minister...
...Naturally, all the DC bigwigs have promised him what Forlani has called "crystal clear and determined support" in strengthening the coalition and enacting long overdue reforms...
...Long overdue reforms" is a phrase I have heard for 35 years, and it continues to make me queasy...
...He is industrious and studious, sectarian and intensely loyal to his side, but unwilling to delegate authority...
...And he is expert at smoothing asperities and reconciling opposite views...
...For he must now carry on business as usual despite the blow to his prestige and an understandably shaky Cabinet...
...His comeback after De Mita's brief interlude would in no way be a panacea...
...Can De Mita really depend on the sincerity and good will of those within the Cabinet and in Parliament who helped to engineer his ouster from the DC leadership...
...Large sectors of the DC would be unhappy and surly, forming a new Cabinet would be a tricky undertaking, and Craxi himself is doubtful about the timing of the operation...
...They point out, too, that the DC middle-of-the-roaders are traditionally pro-Socialist, whereas the DC Leftwingers hope for an eventual modus vivendi with the Communists, having always visualized them as more trustworthy allies than the hungry and slippery Socialists...
...Although he is welleducated, he still speaks a heavily accented Italian, and while he is at ease with his hometown cronies, he very frequently lacks poise...
...The coalition leaders' sense of responsibility, it is argued, should convince them this is not time for politics as usual...
...Oddly enough, while the optimists are convinced that the danger of inflation should deter a government crisis, the "pessimists" draw the opposite conclusion...
...Re-elected Secretary twice, De Mita was solidly entrenched as the DC leader when two circumstances contributed to his undoing...
...De Mita, they maintain, cannot last as the Prime Minister because he no longer has the influence and the grit to wage a battle in which the future of the nation's economy is at stake: Strict anti-inflationary measures, unpalatable to the Leftist parties and labor unions, can be enacted and enforced only by a strong executive...
...This would be especially true if a better understanding with Bettino Craxi's Socialists were at stake...
...Ciampi recommends a monetary policy aimed at restoring price stability, controlling the money supply and cutting down public spending, particularly in the fields of Social Security and National Medical Assistance...
...Their inference is that since the Christian Democrats cannot provide a suitable replacement (veteran Foreign Minister Giulio Andreotti is brilliant and shrewd, but too controversial) the Prime Ministership is bound to bounce once again into Craxi's court...
Vol. 72 • March 1989 • No. 5
