The Politics of Peace in the Mideast
SALPETER, ELIAHU
SHAMIR VS. MUBARAK The Politics of Peace in the Mideast By Eliahu Salpeter Tel Aviv If diplomatic achievements were measured by the comings and goings of statesmen, or the publication...
...There is no clear reason for the situation, other than the slight official devaluation of the shekel—opposed, ironically, by the Histadrut but demanded by the manufacturers to make exports more profitable...
...Secretary Baker subsequently called for a U.S.-Egyptian-Israeli effort to get the peace process moving, working from the proposals put forward by Jerusalem and Cairo...
...allow one or two expelled Palestinians to participate in discussions on the modalities of an election...
...But on October 16 the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), meeting in Baghdad, bluntly denounced the U.S...
...and permit East Jerusalem Arabs to participate in the voting and run for office...
...AT the heart of this LikudLabor conflict lies the old dispute about trading land for peace...
...For the Defense Minister it represented a chance to put an end to the intifada, which he has long believed is possible only by political means...
...That in itself may not lead to a serious increase in inflation, but it will oblige the government to move very cautiously in spending on special development projects planned to bring down unemployment...
...At the end of the third year, assuming all is going smoothly, talks would begin on the ultimate status of the disputed territories...
...Adding to his troubles, the Ministry of Finance has just announced that because of asharp drop in taxrevenues produced by the economic slowdown, the budget deficit will be 4-5 times the original forecast...
...In mid-September Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak formally transmitted his 10-point response to Israel's initiative...
...The reaction in Israel has underscored how much any settlement is still a captive of the domestic political situation...
...Egypt, the moderate Palestinians, the U.S., and Labor insist that is the only route to an Arab-Israeli settlement...
...Such a development would certainly give a much-needed boost to national morale (which, by the way, is supposed to be good for parties with a moderate image...
...There are no big Palestinian demonstrations anymore, and the stoning of passing military and civilian vehicles has taken on a certain ritualistic quality...
...as dishonest broker, and seemingly dismissed the Egyptian as well as the Israeli scenarios...
...With a breakup of the government coalition again on the horizon, Rabin could be picked to head the Labor list...
...For the hardliners and some of the milder hawks, he may appear to be the "man of the hour" (a description of him lately fashionable in the Israeli press): He is tough in suppressing Arab violence, but is acceptable to Washington and respected in Cairo...
...And Shamir knows that escalating the use of force to a point where it would break the intifada could do unacceptable damage to Israel's image in the West generally and the U.S...
...Quite the opposite, say the Palestinians...
...A significant wrinkle in the current controversy over the issue is Rabin's support of Mubarak's lOpoints...
...Four years ago, when Shimon Peres was Prime Minister, his firm support for restrictive fiscal and wage policies helped the then Likud Finance Minister Yitzchak Modai push down inflation from an annual rate of over 400 per cent to less than 20 per cent...
...Today much of that has been forgotten, if not forgiven, because he has taken the lead in pushing negotiations...
...Instead, the policymaking body renewed the PLO demand for an international conference to establish a Palestinian state...
...For the Prime Minister the proposal meant replacing international pressure for a settlement with an unlimited interim solution, at best, or protracted negotiations, at worst...
...In the past 12 months, however, inflation has totaled 22.4 per cent and the number of unemployed has reached 150,000...
...This leadership group would then negotiate a five-year period of limited autonomy...
...It refuses to give up any part of Palestine, even though the Camp David agreements signed by former Prime Minister Menachem Begin are based on the acceptance of Security Council resolution 242, forbidding "the acquisition of territory by force...
...As a consequence of the changed aspects of the uprising, local and foreign media interest in the intifada has declined...
...When the voters feel threatened they look for a firm hand, Shamir said inarecentinterview, and Likud fits the bill better than Labor does...
...The peace plan advanced by Israel centers around the free election of 10 representatives by the 1.7 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza...
...Shortly afterward Israeli Defense Minister Yitzchak Rabin, with the approval of the Cabinet, accepted Mubarak's invitation to visit Cairo to discuss the linkage between the two documents...
...There has been some good news for Israel, though, on the perestroïka front...
...By returning all of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt, Shamir contends, "Israel implemented 96 per cent of the deal" and it is now up to the Arabs to make a small concession...
...therefore, setting the final result as a precondition for negotiations makes no sense...
...The Israeli consular mission in Moscow has been permitted to occupy a wing of the old Israel Embassy building, Soviet media are giving Israel friendlier coverage, and an agreement has been signed for the mutual opening of chamber of commerce missions in Moscow and Tel Aviv...
...Granted, exports are more competitive and industrial efficiency has improved, but these are achievements that of necessity do not, in the short run, translate into more jobs...
...The government's widely heralded prediction of 150,000 new immigrants from the Soviet Union over the next two years seems destined to be trimmed back, too...
...On the other, Rabin's position inside Labor has been strengthened, probably at the expense of Peres...
...On the West Bank and in Gaza, meanwhile, the intifada goes on despite a tougher attitude adopted by the Army after General Yitzchak Mordechai took over from General Amram Mitzna as commander of the central region...
...Unfortunately—except for Meguid—they had demonstratively left the Assembly Hall when their Israeli counterpart rose to speak, continuing the pattern of the past 40 years...
...Where that leaves the latest burst of diplomatic energy remains —like everything else in the Mideast— uncertain...
...For their part, Israeli commanders have stressed the existing stern orders against excessive use of force, and have taken stricter measures to avoid injuring innocent people during clashes with Army patrols...
...They further argue that most of their top people live in East Jerusalem, hence to exclude them would be to "decapitate" the Palestinian delegation...
...The very limited nature of Arafat's moderation will become increasingly evident, they reason, and so will Shamir's submission to Likud's ultrahawks...
...When Rabin became convinced that Shamir was merely out to gain time, and Mubarak apparently convinced him that the PLO was ready to negotiate indirectly, he openly declared his support for the Egyptian President's approach...
...The phenomenon has become a real concern of the intifada leaders, who recall that the "great Arab revolt" inthelate'30s became a bloody internecine war...
...Similar action by the Soviet Union is not expected in the near future, but the Kremlin is warming up...
...The Palestinians, they note, are already beginning to realize that violence will never induce the Israelis to accept the PLO's demands...
...Including exiles as negotiators would mean implicit acceptance of the refugees' "right of return," while extending the Palestinian vote to East Jerusalemites, no matter where the polling stations were located, would be tantamount to redividing Israel's capital...
...Nor can the other economic bright spot—a noticeable improvement in tourism—be attributed to the Ministry of Finance...
...And Mubarak appeared on Moked ("Focus"), Israeli television's most popular and prestigious interview program, to explain his suggestions...
...The Palestinians have been adamant about drawing from those sent into exile for pro-PLO actions, because they believe that would assure placing what they see as their entire problem on the table, not merely the matter of electing an interim local leadership...
...Thus before too long, in the optimists' view, mounting pressures will compel both sides to look for a tolerable compromise...
...Although the turn of events would seem to favor Labor, especially if the coalition breaks up and new elections are held, it is likely to focus attention on another problem the party faces...
...Whether or not he is right, even with Rabin as a major factor, may be revealed in the November 13 Histadrut elections...
...he refuses to recognize the PLO and rejects the idea of an independent Palestinian state, but he talks to Palestinians who talk to Arafat and says the Israeli occupation cannot be maintained indefinitely...
...Labor, sensing a unique opportunity to inch toward peace, is willing to accept a definition of "representatives in exile" that simply excludes PLO functionaries...
...The Israelis say the whole idea of an interim arrangement is to provide an opportunity to build mutual confidence and test different ideas for permanent coexistence...
...Arens, in his speech to the Assembly, invited all 20 Arab foreign ministers attending the UN opening to meet with him forthwith for preliminary talks on a Middle East peace settlement...
...Nevertheless, PLO chief Yasir Arafat and associates have reacted to the whole Egyptian platter by playing cat-and-mouse with Mubarak...
...The other three are designed to meet Palestinian concerns: They would require Israel to accept the principle of exchanging land for peace, with due regard to its security...
...Israel's four-point peace plan was the product of an understanding between Shamir and Rabin...
...Of the various objections to the scheme made by the Palestinians (and particularlythePLO), the most important is to the absence of a commitment that in the end they would be granted an independent state...
...Not since President George Bush expressed his support for the four-point Israeli peace, plan presented to him in Washington last April by Prime Minister Yitzchak Shamir has there been so much activity relating to it as during the past several weeks...
...Likud, of course, blames Peres and Labor for the country's economic woes, and the charge seems to be sticking...
...Most of the doves in his party would have to take a deep breath, yet would probably go along...
...But those in touch with wouldbe emigrants in the Soviet Union suspect that Israel's expectations are greatly exaggerated...
...On the one hand, the tacit cooperation between Shamir and Rabin that had been the strong glue holding together the LikudLabor coalition has come to an end...
...Likud, by contrast, is convinced that the present level of intifada violence is tolerable, and that its increase or extension into Israel proper would add to the party's electoral support...
...Likud disagrees...
...It would also let East Jerusalem Arabs vote in the Palestinian contests, providing they do so in the West Bank or Gaza...
...In the past, the Army's strong-arm methods in combating the intifada had made the Defense Minister anathema to moderates and doves in his party...
...Indeed, the fate of the coalition government, and of Mubarak's initiatìve, could be decided by the results of the Histadrut elections...
...In fact, concludes Likud, implementing the Israeli plan under Mubarak's conditions would lead directly to the establishment of a "PLO state 20 miles from Tel Aviv...
...Seven of his 10 points support Israel's positions...
...MUBARAK The Politics of Peace in the Mideast By Eliahu Salpeter Tel Aviv If diplomatic achievements were measured by the comings and goings of statesmen, or the publication of plans and counterplans, the perennial Israeli-Arab conflict might finally seem on its way to resolution...
...It is essentially this dichotomy that President Mubarak has sought to at least partially address...
...Its strategy, repeating the formula used successfully in the last municipal elections, is to downplay union matters and present the balloting as a test of national policy, especially the handling of the intifada...
...Optimists, finally, are not in complete despair about the apparent IsraeliPalestinian stalemate...
...But there are more firebomb attacks on Israeli targets, and more murders of supposed Arab "collaborators" carried out in the middle of the night by hooded "enforcers of the uprising...
...That evening the President spoke briefly with Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens, who also held tripartite talks with Secretary of State James A. Baker III and Egyptian Foreign Minister Esmat Abdel Meguid...
...In New York, as the UN General Assembly convened toward the end of September, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Shimon Peres, head of the Labor Party half of Israel's coalition government, conferred for an hour one afternoon with President Bush...
...Many of the approximately 125 Palestinians killed this way had no dealings with the Israeli authorities and actually were the victims of old personal feuds...
...Poland has indicated that it will soon follow...
...in particular...
...Israeli papers are devoting more space to the diplomatic front, as well as to such domestic issues as the state of the economy and the prospects of renewed large-scale immigration from the Soviet Union...
...Eliahu Salpeter, a regularNL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...
...Labor and the Left have traditionally had an overwhelming majority in the trade unions, but Likud is aiming to "replace the red flag with the blue-white...
...After repeated promises, Hungary has finally re-established full diplomatic relations—broken by all Communist countries (with the exception of Romania) during the Six-Day War in 1967...
...The split has had inevitable repercussions in Israeli domestic politics...
...To Likud, such concessions spell disaster...
...Seeing an opportunity to capitalize on what had become a strength, Peres assumed the Ministry of Finance post after the last elections with the intentions of continuing the attack on inflation and of reducing joblessness...
...Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze, not about to be left out of the picture, offered to host an Israeli-Palestinian conference in the Soviet Union...
...The feat was accomplished at thecostofamildrecessionand increased unemployment...
...one does not start out on a voyage of many years without first determining where one is going...
...The trade balance is better, interest rates have gone down, yet new investments and new jobs have so far failed to materialize...
Vol. 72 • October 1989 • No. 15
