The Politics of Not Saying No

...In Jerusalem, by focusing on the substantive issues of the transitional autonomy period for the territories rather than the controversial international conference that would open the peace talks, Shultz is thought to have gained some slight ground...

...2. The Secretary apparently is persuaded that his plan must have the backing of Likud and Labor...

...Quiet but firm measures were also taken to head off what worries many people more than the trouble in the West Bank and Gaza: attempts by Palestinian activists to stir up Israel's Arab citizens...

...Peres was ready to call for early balloting if Shamir rejected Shultz' initiative completely...

...Actually, if an election were held today, or in the next two to three months, it could very well result in a repeat of the current almost equal division between the two big parties...

...on the other hand, Shamir was expected to call for an electoral contest as a way of skirting a formal rejection...

...Eliahu Salpeter, a regular NL· contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...They insisted that the opening international conference must have binding authority to impose as well as to veto decisions at the peace talks, that the PLO must be a participant, and that Israel must pull back to the 1967 borders...

...None of these conditions are acceptable to the U.S...

...It is possible, too, that the already announced extension of military reserve duty from the usual 21-30 days a year to 52 days (because of the extra burden on the Army in policing the West Bank and Gaza) will increase the ranksofthosewhoobjecttoholdingon to the territories at all costs...

...In Jordan and Syria the Secretary had rougher going...

...Indeed, this has reinforced Jerusalem's feelings about the importance of local Arab leaderships...

...Ten days earlier, passions were fanned when a mob of Arab youths forced 16 teenage Passover hikers plus two adult escorts into the village of Beita, southeast of Nablus, and a 16-year-old Jewish girl was killed during the ensuing confrontation by a wild bullet from the gun of one of the escorts...

...3. In going out of his way to reassure Israel of U.S...

...or to Israel...

...Concern over the marchers' safety was given as the reason, but Israelis believe the move reflected an unfortunate politicization of the churches...

...Interestingly, the general Rightward trend cannot be ignored by either of the major camps: Likud now has to compete harder with the Ultranationalist Thiya Party, and Labor has to guard against losing its nationalistic supporters to Likud...

...Good relations with the United States are considered vital by most of Likud's adherents and endangering them could cost Shamir a substantial number of votes...

...Both Jordan's King Hussein and Syria's President Hafez al-Assad stiffened their stance...

...For example, it is noted that if the Secretary's proposals did not get an unqualified Yes in the capitals he traveled to (except for Cairo), they were not given a flat No either...

...In what was seen as a related development, West Bank Christian church leaders for the first time since 1967 cancelled several Easter processions traditionally held in East Jerusalem...

...Shamir's Likud bloc has been slowly picking up strength at the expense of Foreign Minister Shimon Peres' Labor Party, and even more pronounced are the changes in the personal ratings of the country's top politicians...

...Overall, they think he has made three mistakes: 1. The Secretary delayed the start of his mission too long...

...They included trucks equipped with automatic stone-throwers, shovels to clear blocked roads and tear-gas launchers...

...But if his realistic aim is to lay the groundwork for the next administration, waiting for Shamir is less sensible...

...Be that as it may, at the moment Shamir and Shultz have, in a technical sense, a common objective: to avoid an outright rejection of the American plan by Israel or any of its neighbors...

...Although there have been a few disturbances inside the "Green Line," Israeli Arab leaders have managed to prevent any major problems—even in the many towns and villages where there is a Communist majority on the local council...

...As for his shuttle diplomacy, whereas it seems to have received uniformly low grades intheU.S...

...support, the Secretary has enabled Shamir to claim (and probably even believe) that opposing a territorial compromise—and thus de facto rejecting the peace plan—would not damage Israeli-American relations...

...It was a dramatic illustration of the tensions he had to contend with while visiting Jerusalem, Amman, Cairo, Riyadh and Damascus to advance his peace plan for the region...

...So has the observance of Land Day...

...Shultz does not want to go to the Moscow summit in June with a Mideast failure behind him and, more important, he would like to keep his plan alive through the American elections: At best, there might be some unexpected movement or even a change in Jerusalem's attitude after the Israeli elections...

...and Europe, opinions here differ on whether or not progress was made...

...If the election is held in November as scheduled, Labor and some independent observers believe it could turn out differently...

...The appeals and arguments of Secretary Shultz presented directly to the Israeli public might influence some of the voters who fear Israel's isolation in an international conference and, especially, concerted pressure on it to give up virtually the entire West Bank...

...Should such a belief gain currency with Israeli voters, it could help Shamir and Likud win the next election...

...KEEPING THE SHULTZ PLAN ALIVE The Politics of Not Saying No BY ELIAHU SALPETER Tel Aviv The "uprising" of West Bank and Gaza Strip Palestinians against Israel, now in its fifth month, appears to have settled into a pattern of provocation followed by repression followed by relative quiet followed by provocation...

...Since the death of six Arabs protesting government land policy near the Sea of Galilee, north of Nazareth, on March 30, 1976, their Israeli brethren have marked the date with huge commemorative rallies...

...In addition, the Army introduced new mechanized riot-control devices...

...Shamir, for his part, does not want to go before the electorate as the man who caused a damaging confrontation with Washington...

...Before the Secretary's arrival, Israel stepped up its efforts to quell the persisting unrest: Trade between the West Bank and Jordan was sharply curtailed, more curfews were imposed, some 4,000 rioters were detained, and several of those believed to be instigators were deported...

...To a lesser extent Defense Minister Yitzchak Rabin has lost some of his commanding popularity to ex-Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, but among Cabinet members Rabin still gets the best marks by far for his performance in office...

...He also had full freedom to address the public over the head of Prime Minister Yitzchak Shamir: He met with the editors of the daily newspapers, held a big press conference, and appeared on the top-rated local version of Meet the Press...

...By contrast, in the West Bank and Gaza, where Land Day was "imported," there were numerous outbursts of violence...

...At the outside, Likud might pull ahead enough to form a coalition with Thiya and the religious parties...

...at worst, the Reagan Administration would be able to hand over to its successor a process that may be sickly yet is still alive...

...That incident occurred in the midst of Secretary of State George P. Shultz' April 3-9 Middle East shuttle...

...The Prime Minister has gained 5-6 per cent in most polls, while Peres—though still maintaining alead of around lOper cent over Shamir—has lost 7-9 per cent...

...Whatever the ultimate effect of the West Bank events on the Israeli voter, however, the fact that a total deadlock on the Shultz plan was avoided by all concerned (except the PLO) not saying No outright to the Secretary has diminished the talk in Israel about advancing the elections...

...In these circumstances it is perhaps not surprising that Israeli public opinion polls show a further shift to the Right...

...Last March 30, despite the fact that speakers added strong expressions of support for the Palestinians in the occupied territories, the crowds remained peaceful and a family-outing atmosphere prevailed...

...Amman newspapers were ordered not to report his press conference, and the television station would not broadcast an interview he had taped in which he said a negotiated settlement would mean accepting less than full Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 frontiers...

...This would be the right approach if he had reason to expect Shamir to make major concessions...

...The most violent of these sequences came inthewake of the April 16 assassination in Tunisia of Khalil al-Wazir, better known as Abu Jihad, Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) military strategist and second to Yasir Arafat...

...Had he come a year ago or earlier, when Peres reportedly urged him to, he would not have had the Palestinian uprising to contend with and he would have enjoyed greater leverage in Jerusalem and Amman...

...In any case, the scene was subdued when Shultz arrived on Easter Sunday...

...In assessing Shultz' diplomacy after his latest visit, several commentators who lean toward Labor expressed the view that it would have made more progress if he had been tougher on both Israel and Jordan...