Canada's Free-Trade Election

...Congress passed the counterpart law in September and it has been signed by Ronald Reagan...

...So the dissolution-and-election route to getting the trade agreement ratified is probably less risky for him than the referendum that some free-trade critics had demanded...

...Turner has promised that if Mulroney obtains another majority in the House, the Senate Liberals will terminate their blocking action...

...The Tory record of scandals has been invoked repeatedly in opposition rhetoric, and justifiably so...

...Taking advantage of his prerogative to set the date of the election, he was able to bide his time until the situation seemed propitious...

...Harold M. Waller, a frequent contributor to the NL, is associate professor of political science at McGill University and co-editor of Canadian Federalism: From Crisis to Constitution...

...Aside from free trade, the predictable main bone of contention, a number of other subjects have been highlighted in the campaign...

...The Liberals have long been staunch advocates of a strong and vigorous federal government, too, yet now back Mulroney's Meech Lake Accord even though it strengthens the provinces at the expense of Ottawa...

...Only donkeys don't change their minds, donkeys and mules," he now says...

...The poll revealed that the electorate is on the whole satisfied with the Conservatives' handling of economic matters, relations within the Federal system, and both national and foreign security...

...His tenure as Prime Minister has been marred by scandals, the resignations of several Cabinet ministers, allegations of conflict of interest against members of his government, and a general feeling that the Tories were not really up to running the country...

...Opposition to the trade agreement strikes many in the business community as somewhat anomalous, for example, in the light of the party's customary support for freer trade...

...The NDP is given the nod on three issues, while on the remaining two no party is thought to have a significant advantage...

...Mulroney certainly cannot be accused of displaying the foolish consistency Ralph Waldo Emerson once wrote about so ruefully...

...For Canadians face a choice of historic importance in the November 21 general election that Prime Minister Brian Mulroney called last month...

...The difference between the supporters and opponents of free trade boils down to optimism versus pessimism on the ability of Canadian industries to hold their own against corresponding American industries...

...The two parties in the opposition, the Liberals and the New Democrat Party (NDP), reject the trade deal...

...The opposition points to how much Mulroney's government raised taxes just prior to the overhaul...

...Yet the Prime Minister had undeniably enhanced the voters' estimation of his leadership capabilities, and in doing so had become an electoral asset to his party...

...Despite all the ballyhoo that this government would not repeat the mistakes made under Conservative Prime Ministers John Diefenbaker and Joe Clark, Mulroney seemed out of control and not terribly competent, either politically or administratively...

...They have also called attention to the fact that the second stage of the tax reform would likely mean a national sales tax or value-added tax, either of which would be regressive...

...The Tories defend the tax legislation Mulroney succeeded in getting enacted this year on the grounds that it shifts the burden from the middle class to the business sector...

...When Liberal Opposition Leader John Turner asked his partisans in the Senate to stall the free-trade legislation they complied, and the bill died there...

...Turner's task in that province is not made any easier by Liberal Quebec Prime Minister Robert Bourassa's undisguised preference for Mulroney...

...In polls taken during the last days of October, preference for the Liberals shot up while Tory support dropped, turning what had seemed to be a humdrum election into a neck-and-neck tight race...

...These dramatic shifts have increased the likelihood of a minority government, squelched Broadbent's brave talk of a two-party system in Canada without the Liberals, and threatened the trade pact...

...And he is staking his political future on the conviction that enough Canadians will agree with him for his view to prevail...

...By mid-October they were decisively in front, attracting about 40-45 per cent of the decided voters—enough for amajority government if they could maintain the momentum...

...Second, they are convinced that jobs would be lost because Canadian businesses would fold if they had to compete on equal terms with American companies...

...Quite the opposite has been the case with Turner, at least until the television debates on October 24 and 25 featuring the three leaders...

...Mulroney's refusal to approve the nomination of his disgraced former Cabinet minister Sinclair Stevens for a parliamentary seat is cited as indicative of his resolve to ensure ethical standards...

...And the wisdom of that caution became evident in the aftermath of the debates, for Turner surprised everyone with an extremely impressive performance...

...The three parties are separated by only a few percentage points there, leaving a large number of seats in doubt...

...Defenders of the pact also see it as a chance to stop protecting domestic industries behind high tariffs and to modernize the economy, the better to face future challenges...

...While both the Tories and the NDP enjoy comfortable financial surpluses that will enable them to spend the maximum allowable under the law on their campaigns, the Liberals are wallowing in over $6 million of debt and will have to borrow more money to pay their election bills...

...More recently, however, Mulroney has become the country's foremost apostle of the virtues of an open North American market...

...Just before the election was called, journalist Greg Weston happened to publish an exposé of Turner's personal and political foibles and ineptitude, entitled Reign of Error...

...Indeed, last year he trailed both the NDP's Edward Broadbent and the Liberal Party's Turner in the popularity polls, garnering a mere 16 per cent approval...

...It is Canada's largest province, accounting for better than one-third of the 295 Commons seats, and an electorate that seems to be worried about losing industrial jobs with the advent of free trade...

...Yet despite the uncertainty in Ontario, and indications by mid-October that Tory strength had peaked, the PC's lead appeared insurmountable heading into the TV debates at the end of the month...

...But by this October, for the first time in two years, a major poll showed that Mulroney was the favorite choice for Prime Minister, leading Broadbent 40 to 29 per cent, with Turner trailing at 15 per cent...

...One is tax reform...

...By the time of the television confrontations, most analysts were anticipating a PC victory...

...If Mulroney is able to deliver a majority government after all, Canada will embark on a novel and uncharacteristically risky economic course...

...But determined nationalists—using Mulroney's own 1983 statement that "free trade is a threat to Canadian sovereignly" as their motto—have been given new life...

...becomes increasingly protectionist...

...Turner's successful appropriation of the role of chief opponent of free trade has helped to define the issue in stark terms...

...Mulroney's Progressive Conservative (PC) government stands firmly behind the free-trade agreement concluded last year with the United States—only the second such agreement the U.S...

...The Liberals had responded energetically to their poor poll results in September and the beginning of October, but experts were skeptical that they could recover from their precipitous decline before the five-week campaign ended...

...The surge in Mulroney's popularity may reflect a desire on the part of voters to resolve any cognitive dissonance between their party balloting intention and their prime ministerial preference...

...But one region where the soundings remained close was Ontario, a crucial battleground in any election...

...Five years ago, as a candidate for the PC leadership, he averred that "Free trade with the United States is like sleeping with an elephant...

...This is a far cry from the era of Trudeau's firm guidance of the party...

...It is surely ominous for the Liberals that they are not preferred in the case of a single one of the 13 issues...

...In the four years since Mulroney was elected, each of the three competing parties has taken turns heading the polls...

...Interestingly, Mulroney need not persuade a majority of the voters that he is right...

...The NDP, meanwhile, was trying to demonstrate that it had become a party capable of competing nationally and was worthy of being considered the principal alternative to the Tories...

...Where Mulroney ran into trouble was in Canada's Senate, whose members are not elected but appointed by prime ministers, most of whom have been Liberals over the last half century...

...has signed (the other is with Israel...

...He explains that he began to appreciate the necessity of a trade agreement while observing the emergence of a pronounced tendency toward protectionism in the United States after he became Prime Minister in 1984...

...The NDP had a moment of glory in the summer of 1987, holding a brief lead with over 40 per cent in the polls...

...Such is the mathematics of athreeway race under the Canadian electoral system that a party can win a majority of Commons seats with between 40-50 per cent of the popular vote...

...Another noteworthy poll finding was that 54 per cent of the voters now opposed the free-trade agreement...

...One of the results of the Liberal leadership albatross has been a sharp decline in party fundraising...

...A little over a year ago, in the summer of 1987, it appeared that Mulroney's chances for an electoral victory were remote...

...In addition, both the Liberals and the NDP are proposing new social programs and economic assistance to the working and middle classes, notwithstanding Canada's enormous budget deficits...

...The U.S...

...Compounding the Liberals' woes is their having cobbled together an awkward record on key issues and alienated some natural constituencies...

...Since then, though, Mulroney has managed to pull things together...

...Mulroney continued to lag behind Broadbent on the dimensions of likability and perceived trustworthiness...

...Government-financed day care has caught the fancy of all three parties, with each offering its own version...

...The Tories did, in fact, hold an immense majority in the outgoing House of Commons, and Mulroney managed to get the enabling legislation for the free-trade agreement through that body without a great deal of difficulty...

...It's terrific until the elephant twitches and, if it ever rolls over, you're a dead man...

...A recent nationwide poll further found that of 13 major issues, the Tories are seen by the voters as best able to deal with eight...

...The Tories seemed headed for very strong successes in Quebec, the prairie provinces and Atlantic Canada, although they trailed the NDP in British Columbia...

...A minority Conservative government or a plurality for one of the two opposition parties, on the other hand, would probably spell the end of the free-trade agreement...

...Mulroney argues that Canada must take the risk or face losing what markets it now has south of the border as the U.S...

...Perhaps the best they could hope for was a second-place finish, which would allow them to retain the important status of Official Opposition...

...The uphill nature of the struggle Turner has had to wage is illustrated by the Liberals' weakness in Quebec, historically the cornerstone of their majority governments...

...Therefore, unless the PCs win an absolute majority in the House of Commons, it is unlikely that the free-trade agreement will be implemented next January as planned...

...Environmental concerns have figured prominently in the campaign as well, in part owing to the recent PCB fire near Montreal...

...PESSIMISM Canada's Free-Trade Election BY HAROLD M.WALLER Montreal Americans who lament the lack of clear-cut issues in Presidential contests might well be envious of their Northern neighbors...

...Canadian executives yearn for the opportunity to compete in an American market 10 times the size of their own, hoping to take advantage of economies of scale to expand their enterprises and sell their products on a continental basis...

...The book has proved a formidable obstacle to his valiant attempt to conduct a competitive campaign...

...Nonetheless, it should be recalled that in 1911, in similar circumstances, Prime Minister Sir Wilfrid Laurier went down to defeat for his advocacy of a freetrade pact with the U.S...

...Although the Senate does not normally block legislation, constitutionally it has the power to do so...

...Only acouple of months ago, some Liberals were still trying to dump him as their leader—an annual exercise for the party...

...The PCs have tried to downplay it by saying that after a shaky start they have now learned how to deliver competent and honest government...

...Prognosticating on the outcome of the November 21 contest is difficult because of the volatility of Canadian voters...

...Business interests here generally favor the trade deal, which would eliminate commercial barriers between the two signatory nations over a period of a decade...

...Thus, even if the Tories win big in most regions, a poor showing in Ontario could mean a minority government...

...He has avoided new scandals and embarrassments, acted with a firmer hand, and brought to fruition several of his key projects—most notably the Meech Lake Constitutional Accord and a tax-reform bill...

...First, they fear that Canada would lose independence and meaningful sovereignty if it were to become more economically intimate with the United States...

...He has been knocked from pillar to post over the past four years by a disgruntled party and a skeptical public...

...The NDP was rated highest when it came to policies involving social services and the environment...

...One poll even showed the Liberals in the lead...

...Opponents—some of whom claim to be free traders dissatisfied with the terms of this particular agreement—are motivated by two main concerns...

...During the last four months, as theelection fever grew, the Tories began to pull away...

...The Liberals were on top for most of the period from late 1986 until early this fall, when they dove to third place with only about 25 per cent of the population behind them...

...Mulroney has never enjoyed the public appeal of his charismatic Liberal predecessor, Pierre Elliott Trudeau...

...A few, though, were more cautious...

...They are rallying around Turner and redoubling their efforts to preserve the barriers that they believe constitute the real reason Canada has not already been absorbed by the United Stales...