Israel Assesses the Damage

...Others maintain that the slate shows the center in Israeli politics is shifting...

...The reduction in large-scale disruptions—except for continuing periodic shop closings that are being ignored— is attributed here to tougher countermeasures, fatigue among the Palestinian population, and the extensive replacement of regular troops in the territories with older, more experienced reservists...

...The Arabs are divided, they say (especially by the Iran-Iraq conflict and the parallel fear of Shi'ite extremism), and also have a healthy respect for Israel's military strength...

...Israelis, meanwhile, have been drawing up an interim balance sheet...

...Likud spokesmen hurried to declare that Labor was swinging to the Left...

...Only now is the situation thought to be improving slightly, although the recent stories about the expulsion of Mubarak E. Awad after his tourist visa expired have raised further questions on the subject...

...and ultimately there will be a full-scale war...

...Nevertheless, educators and the Israeli press were quite distressed by the physical destruction and ugly graffiti discovered in West Bank classrooms that served as temporary billets for some of the troops...

...The new list, as a whole, has a more dovish tinge than Labor's present Knesset contingent...

...Interest focused on the voting in the third category, because it is considered the best barometer of the general tendencies in the party...

...On the one hand, the rockthrowing, tire-burning demonstrations have diminished considerably, and the majority of youngsters encouraged to carry them out are back in their reopened schools...

...The latest figures of different pollsters are in unusual agreement that Likud and those to its Right enjoy a slight majority (51-52 per cent) over Labor and those to its Left (48-49 per cent...

...Pollsters say the contradiction indicates that the majority of the public has come to realize the status quo is untenable over the long run, and that Israel will havetoexchangelandforrealpeace...

...Labor supporters counter with warnings of an unavoidable escalation of the Intifada if the issue of Palestinian selfdetermination is not resolved...

...And they are likely to have a decisive influence on the choice Israeli voters make next November...

...extensive terrorist attacks will then be launched across the borders, necessitating Israeli retaliation raids...

...State Department) have portrayed him to be...

...Far greater concern has been voiced, however, about the military government violating the principle of the rule of law through its excessive use of administrative detention (for roughly 2,000 suspected organizers and inciters of violence), and of military court arrests (approximately 5,000...

...On the other hand, there have been several stabbings, firebombs are an increasing problem, and Palestinian arsonists have carried the battle to Israel proper by burning down thousands of acres of carefully nurtured forests...

...a second group is chosen by the local party branches...

...Defense Minister Rabin has already asked for a special $250 million budget to cover the extra expenses of its first three months, suggesting a drain of about $1 billion annually if the troubles persist...

...Moreover, at their June 7-9 summit in Algiers the Arab heads of state, including those of supposedly moderate countries, formally entered into a partnership with the PLO to direct West Bank and Gaza events...

...that his supporters (all the way up to the U.S...

...Administrative detention obviates the need for formal court procedures for six months, while military courts are so overburdened that it sometimes takes a fortnight or longer before the suspected stone- or firebomb-thrower has his arrest reviewed by ajudge...

...Experience has demonstrated that most young soldiers consider this a rather unpleasant but unavoidable task, and they try to perform it with as little friction with the locals as possible...

...Politically, public opinion polls seem to confirm, the Intifada has spurred a polarization—with more people shifting to the Right than to the Left (except among Israel's Arab citizens...

...More interesting, perhaps, is an apparent contradiction within the results: Likud support was generally identified with a preference for having its leader, Yitzchak Shamir, as prime minister rather than Labor's leader, Shimon Peres, yet there was greater backing for territorial compromise with the Palestinians (advocated by Peres) than for holding on to all the occupied areas (advocated by Shamir...

...Eliahu Salpeter, a regular NL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...It specifically advocates "attempts to block roads, cut electricity, disrupt communications, telephone and water lines, and prevent the movement of equipment...

...Many lawyers and civil rights activists are troubled by what they see as apathy on this issue, even among the liberal segments of the Israeli population...

...This is a reversal of the findings prior to the uprising...

...Israel will have to respond with more stringent repressive measures...

...His Arabiclanguage booklet does not limit the "nonviolence" he urges upon the Palestinians to nonpayment of taxes, refusal to work in Israel and similar forms of passive resistance...

...A recent reform changed the process: The party's five top elected leaders become candidates for the next elections automatically...

...Some 80-odd individuals ran for the 29 slots available, and only 13 who prevailed were current Knesset members...

...Likud supporters (and even some people who do not favor retaining all the occupied territories) insist that war is not imminent...

...Despite several highly publicized cases of grossly improper personal behavior policing duty has not had its feared effect on the psyche of Israeli conscripts either...

...SIX MONTHS OF THE 'INTIFADA' Israel Assesses the Damage By Eliahu Salpeter Tel Aviv Six months after it began, the Intifada, the Palestinian uprising in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, almost seems a permanent background din...

...Neither the volatile, elusive local leaders of the uprising nor the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which claims to speak for them, have as y et reduced their demands to the point where a significant portion of the Israelis feel there is any basis for negotiations...

...They offer the following scenario: The West Bank and Gaza Strip disturbances will take a more violent turn...

...In the past, Labor candidates for Parliament were picked by a " selection committee" that the existing apparatus dominated...

...Indeed, his good press notwithstanding, Awad allows that his kind of nonviolence may serve as a prelude to the "armed struggle...

...But surprisingly, outside of the construction industry, the frequent absence of tens of thousands of Arab workers from the territories has had relatively minor impact...

...More difficult to evaluate than the media's treatment are the economic consequences of the rebellion...

...For the self-employed, having their reserve duty extended from 21-30 days to up to 62 days means a bigger loss of personal income, not to mention the loss in national product...

...This shows a substantial decline in international popularity, and about half the people blame Likud's tough territorial stand—not its reaction to the Intifada—formuchof the damage...

...These two opposing views reflect firmly held positions...

...Growing individual acts of violence, though, have prompted Defense Minister Yitzchak Rabin to authorize Israeli civilians as well as the military to shoot anyone wielding a firebomb on sight...

...An American citizen born in East Jerusalem 44 years ago, Awad is certainly not the Palestinian version of Martin Luther King Jr...

...The PLO still refuses to alter its "covenant" calling for Israel's total elimination and replacement by a "Palestinian State...

...But this realization is not strong enough to overcome opposition to Labor, which is rooted more in domestic ethnic factors than in beliefs about the best solution for the Israeli-Arab conflict...

...16 were newcomers, mostly young people of Sephardic origin...

...In addition, the European Parliament —whose political morality is dormant when it comes to approving agreements with authoritarian countries, Arab or otherwise—has suddenly decided to reject an expected expansion of the present EEC-Israel free trade agreement, causing damage to agricultural exports...

...and a third group is picked nationwide by the party's 1,200-member Central Committee...

...Tourism in April and May fell off 40 and 30 per cent, respectively...

...It is now being debated whether or not the end of May Labor Party "primaries,' held to choose a slate for the November Knesset elections, bore out the polarization theory...

...Whatever the case, the assessments of Labor's "primaries" and of the Palestinian disturbances inevitably merge in discussions about a continuation of the status quo eventually leading to a new Israeli-Arab war...

...But there is a wide consensus that the Western media—as with the 1982-83 Lebanon War—have been unfair in their reporting and biased in their commentaries...