Caught in the Doldrums

...Indeed, judged by their personal traits, the chosen had little reason to be chosen...

...It is to this question in particular that we will address ourselves as the Presidential campaign moves toward November...

...The AFL-CIO endorsement procedure requires at least a two-thirds vote for the selected contestant...

...Blacks currently make up 15 per cent of the electorate, and given their party inclinations, about 25 per cent of the Democratic voters...

...What about Michael Dukakis...

...In the life of the American Negro, from slavery to the present, the church has played a dominant role...

...Yet, to everyone's surprise, the South stood solid for the Vice President...

...Bush represents the Republican establishment...

...A third party, theFreeSoilers, pulled virtually no votes...

...Perhaps the reason why there seems to be no deep disagreement is that it is easier to identify a problem than to solve it...

...Once burned, twice shy" is the way the labor policy is commonly characterized...

...Arithmetically, the potential of the black vote in the United States is far greaterthanisgenerallyrealized...

...Then there was a big blow...

...So I pulled a Reagan: Instead of talking to the point, I talked around it, hoping my listeners might discover in my words some hidden meaning that escaped me...

...Union members were urged to get on the slates of any and all the candidates so that, once elected as delegates, they might play a significant role at the convention in the event of a deadlock...

...And after he has envisioned such a program, can he rally the many scattered constituencies in the nation behind his "dream...

...Such a consensus was lacking, prompting the labor federation to opt for another strategy...

...Hardly anyone would attribute the success of either man to charisma, or to superior articulation of a vision of America...

...Our present listless condition is not unique in the nation's annals...

...The victor, Democrat Franklin Pierce of New Hampshire, was followed in 1856 by his party colleague James P. Buchanan, who continued to Uve by the great "compromises...

...Senator Al Gore of Tennessee also had a natural base, namely the South...

...This year he worked hard at changing his image...

...Although the Presidential aspirants may differ on just how to arrive at these worthy objectives, they have not as yet been sufficiently specific to distinguish themselves dramatically from one another...

...We cannot assume that as Florida goes so goes the South, or as Texas goes so goes the South, any more than we can still assume that as Iowa goes so goes the nation...

...when it came to the second part I was stumped...

...I had no difficulty with the first part...

...Hence, for financial reasons as well as political reasons, the candidates without definable and sizable constituencies could not even reach the semi finals...

...Jesse Jackson and Pat Robertson displayed more charisma, Paul Simon and Robert Doleabettergraspof theissues, Bruce Babbitt and Jack Kemp greater intellectuality than Dukakis and Bush...

...So, early in the race, Dukakis became the ersatz Resurrection...

...In 1852, the slavery question was tearing at the guts of the nation...

...Even Fundamentalists might well hesitate to entrust the White House to an associate of souls still so sadly subject to the way of all flesh...

...Providence is not inherent in power...

...Our ship of state is in a sea of troubles but cannot sail on because it is caught in the doldrums...

...Faced with a choice between Tweedledum and Tweedledee, those who sensed that all was not well in a country where "prosperity" rested on the wobbly legs of stock market speculation turned to Wisconsin Senator Robert M. La Follette to head a Progressive Party ticket...

...If there had been any major agreement on the part of the unions affiliated with the AFL-CIO to back any one candidate, there would have been an early endorsement...

...To the extent that there are big "issues," it seems that the major candidates—Michael S. Dukakis for the Democrats and George Bush for the Republicans—are in fundamental accord: Lower the Federal and the trade deficits, halt crime and drugs, improve education, be more "competitive" in the world market, maintain a strong military posture while negotiating arms reduction with the Soviets...

...Thus the two big crises faced by America—the Civil War and the Great Depression—were preceded by elections in which candidates clung desperately to a crumbling consensus, to a center that could not hold...

...Jesse has rallied the flock...

...he has played "race" pianissimo and "class" fortissimo...

...we don't know why, or how we can improve matters...

...With that machine behind him and with Robertson in an embarrassed condition, Bush came across as a Superman on Super Tuesday...

...The consequence is that, while there was no favorite son of labor, there will probably be more union members as delegates at the 1988 Democratic convention than at any time in the past...

...Next came disintegration—secession and the Civil War...

...More important for Bush, though, was the backing of the regular Republican machine, whose chief sustenance in the South is patronage from Washington...

...He ran well in that region on Super Tuesday, but not well enough...

...Now, as I contemplate this first of six monthly pieces covering the 1988 elections, I have a sinking sense of déjà vu...

...And as Al Gore discovered, this is especially true for the increasingly variegated land massbelowthe MasonDixon une...

...IN view of the colorless character of this year's contest, how were Dukakis and Bush able to emerge from a field of 16 as the undisputed candidates of the Democratic and Republican parties respectively, many weeks before the national conventions...

...The reason is that the South is no longer the "solid South...

...He got one out of six votes...

...If, however, the two winners are viewed less as persons than as personifications of certain political constituencies, then the emergence of the front runners appears logical, almost inevitable...

...Both men had plenty of money, good organization and name recognition...

...That brings us to the question of policies...

...Neither the Democrats nor the Whigs, the dominant parties of the time, would face that fearful fact...

...In 1924, Calvin Coolidge ran as a Republican pledged to continue Warren G. Harding's policy of a return to " normalcy...

...The do-nothing attitude of "Silent Cal" was summarized in his simple philosophy that "if you see 10 troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you...

...During the many years when slaves were not allowed to gather in public except for a funeral or religious services, the church became the center of the black social as well as spiritual lif e. The man in the pulpit had the same parochial political power as— forgive the comparison—the old Irish saloonkeeper had in the heyday of Tammany...

...his Greek ancestry and Jewish wife recall JFK's characterization of America as a "nation of immigrants" where you do not have to be a wasp to be President...

...The Dukakis constituency is less easily defined than Bush's, but it is there...

...In 1988 he was much stronger than in 1984, when he did well but he was not yet the spokesman for America's blacks...

...In part this may have been due to the bad publicity that had befallen religious fundamentalism, because of the wellpublicized peccadilloes of Jim Bakker and Jimmy Swaggart...

...His curriculum vitae reads like a well designed résumé-for-the-Presidency drafted by some mythical Select Committee of the American Bourgeoisie while George was still of preppie age...

...Representative Richard Gephardt of Missouri had a constituency composed mainly of unions representing workers in manufacturing who saw their jobs washed away in a flood of imports...

...Many prominent black political leaders spoke out against him and he had to run against former Vice President Walter Mondale, an heir apparent who had solid liberal and labor support...

...But I did not do so for fear that America, the Federal agency sponsoring our guests, and 1 would look foolish...

...The irony here is that the Federal election law that makes government funds available to Presidential candidates was supposed to eliminate the need to raise funds...

...I toyed with the idea of leveling with the visitors and saying, "So far, there are no issues...

...went from Coolidge (1924) to Herbert Hoover (1928)to—bust in 1929...

...It is interesting to note, in fact, that the strength of not only the finalists but of all those who at some point in the primaries seemed serious contenders can be traced to their representing identifiable and significant socioeconomic entities...

...But this year the AFL-CIO made no endorsement in the primaries...

...Basically, it is generational, made up heavily of those who came politically of age in the daysof Camelot...

...His advantages were not altogether visible until Super Tuesday, when he had to face Pat Robertson on the televangelist's home ground: the Bible Belt...

...he has run in a broken field...

...The candidates with the most recognizable constituencies—the four semifinalists—also had the best access to money...

...The loophole in the law is that it does not cover the primaries...

...If he is elected—a seemingly strong possibility at the moment—can he convert his popularity into a program for a time that is radically different from the era of Roosevelt, Kennedy or Johnson...

...They called upon the 7 3-year-old Senator Henry Clay of Kentucky to compose another of his clever compromises and proceeded to name "dough faces" as candidates—"Northerners with Southem principles" and "Southerners with Northern principles" whose pronouncements urged national unity based on no principles...

...Two of The Duke's early rivals for the Kennedy mantle—Senator Joe Biden of Delaware and former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado—eliminated themselves through self-inflicted wounds, in one case with an assist from a Dukakis honcho...

...Meanwhile Gephardt, who probably hoped for labor's official endorsement, had to go it on his own with support from some union activists who are deeply concerned about the "trade issue...

...The "Gephardt Amendment" was his distinctive plank...

...It has its black vote, its conservative vote, its liberal vote, its urban and rural votes, and—in Florida—its Jewish vote, plus its redneck and yuppie votes...

...On at least two other occasions elections that were marked by a lull took place...

...He failed to "carry" it the way Bush did in the Republican primary...

...Robertson and Jackson got their funds from "fans," the small givers...

...He has loaded his staff with Jews...

...We know what's wrong...

...If they unite behind some candidate in a Democratic primary, they can provide a very solid starting base...

...A corporate lawyer, Davis was described by one political observer as "the type that streetcar conductors would like to have for a superintendent...

...Countdown '88 CAUGHT IN THE DOLDRUMS BY GUS TYLER IN LATE May, a Federal agency asked me to meet with some two dozen foreign journalists and academicians to explain how our political process works and tell them what the issues are in the election...

...In the process, he gained backing from one of America's most powerful "precinct" machines: the black pulpits...

...We know, pretty much, where George Bush is coming from and where he is headed...

...Should that hopeful be able to add merely a few percentage points to this base, he could accumulate about one-third of the vote and one-third of the delegates to a Democratic Party convention— which is roughly where Jackson stands...

...Are we once more in the calm that comes before the storm...

...Had that appeal led to his official endorsement by the American labor movement, he might well have done much better than he did in the race...

...Dukakis and Bush got their funds from "friends," the big givers...

...Although a numerous and vigorous natural constituency can win the nomination and ultimately the election for a candidate, it cannot per se produce a program to cope with the future, as is evident from the number of American Presidents who came into office on a landslide and left in a mudslide...

...Jackson was further burdened by his linkage with Black Muslim leader Louis Farrakhan and assorted Arab terrorists...

...As the incumbent remains of the Reagan Administration, Bush is the GOP's heir apparent, too...

...Dukakis is youngish...

...Robertson boasted that he would beat Bush in North Carolina and would then go on to be Number One in Dixie...

...No matter how unum the United States may be, it is today more pluribus than when Madison argued for a nation of diverse interests...

...heisfromMassachusetts;heenjoys the active support of many Kennedy clansmen...

...In reality, the '84 experience had little or nothing to do with labor's policy this year...

...His Democratic opponent, John W. Davis, was no less conservative...

...he has mastered the art of attracting the media...

...Blissfully the U.S...

...What issues does one discuss in an issueless election...

...Gus Tyler, a frequent contributor, is Assistant President of the ilgwu...

...But all four were well fueled...

...Labor's decision not to make an early endorsement in '88 is popularly attributed to a reaction against what happened in 1984, when the AFL-CIO backed Walter Mondale in the Democratic primaries...

...The plain fact is that the separate unions were either uncertain or were divided...

...Jackson's constituency is readily apparent: It is the black community that has been wandering aimlessly and listlessly in a political wilderness since the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr...