Making the Constitution Work

...Antonio Zumel, a Communist spokesman, has declared that "Only radical change will relieve the need for armed conflict...

...Still, frustration is building...

...For example, a $200 million short-term employment program announced with much fanfare last summer never really took off, partly because the national bank refused to issue funds due to the budget deficit...

...Demoralized, the military finally revolted against Marcos in February 1986 and sent him packing...

...It has, for instance, lambasted what it described as the government's "bad faith" in the cease-fire talks—a tactic intended to prepare party members for a resumption of hostilities...

...The population, 20 million in 1950 when the previous Communist rebellion by the Hukbalahap guerrillas was at its peak, has soared to almost 60 million—70 per cent of whom live below the poverty line...

...To date merely lip service has been paid to structural reform...

...In the administrative void, especially prevalent in rural areas, CPP cadres dispense rough justice by assassinating local toughs and "disciplining" corrupt mayors...

...THE CHALLENGE IN THE PHILIPPINES-2 Making the Constitution Work BY RICHARD J. KESSLER Philippine President Corazon C. Aquino, who on February -25 celebrated the first anniversary of her rise to power, is arguably the most popular democratic leader in the world today...

...February's constitutional plebiscite was only the first of the three votes Aquino must win in order to cement her political control and to stabilize the Philippines' wobbly democracy...

...Indeed, if Corazon Aquino is to retain the pre-eminence she enjoys in the Philippines—despite the constant sniping from the Left and the Right—she must capitalize on her popular support to drive through crucial reforms once the new Congress convenes...

...But her supporters have organized two major parties: the Filipino Democratic Party-Fight, with her brother Jose Cojuangco as its secretary-general...

...in the senators' case, the 12 highest vote-getters are to serve for six years, and the remaining 12 for three...

...As a result, local government authority was furthered weakened and electoral prospects were improved for anti-Aquino politicians...

...Beginning with small Organizing Groups, it has built a mass base of several million...

...Another commented: "In the end there will be a confrontation...

...The Army has no strategy for dealing with the NPA other than direct repression...

...In addition, corruption and the breakdown of local government persistently impede economic recovery...

...In pulongs-pulongs (small teach-ins), troops have been telling the people such things as "We are your soldiers, you give us our salaries...

...Whereas past land reform programs were limited to rice and corn fields, the new charter requires the government to "undertake the just distribution of all agricultural lands"—including the powerful sugar haciendas...

...On May 11, Filipinos will go to the polls to select a new bicameral legislature of 24 senators and 200 representatives (an additional 50 are to be appointed, 25 by Aquino and 25 by the parties...

...According to one government official, she sees democracy as "letting the political parties themselves sort out the type of political system they want rather than having Cory dictate it...

...The GNP growth rate, negati ve in 1984 and 198 5, inched up to 0.13 per cent in 1986...

...The sense of peril is explained in part by what Aquino's middle-class and poor supporters lack: goons, guns and gold...

...The document's transitional provisions, by contrast, promise trouble...

...The government's new five-year development plan may not be enough to stem the tide of discontent...

...In recent weeks tensions between the military and the insurgents have exploded in a series of violent conflicts...

...They de-emphasized the "armed struggle," according to a former high ranking Communist official...

...As one longtime American resident in Manila has noted, though, "It is a very fluid situation, not in the sense of a greasy road but in the sense of a precipice next to the road...

...To be sure, the military has tried to change its image...

...The outcome of these contests will be critical to the country's democratic future, for the new officeholders will decide how to implement detailed constitutional provisions involving such sensitive matters as land reform and free medical care...

...With Aquino already a lame duck, the new Congress is also likely to be a forum for presidential aspirants...

...Considering that the current arrangement provides for $900 million in economic and military assistance over a five-year period, it is unlikely the U.S...

...The acting governor of Albay Province claims that over 50 per cent of his villages are sympathetic to the CPP...

...Politically, Aquino inherited an exceptionally polarized society...

...For example, Davao, the second largest city, has about 500 policemen for 3 million residents...

...The CPP is vulnerable, though...

...The new Constitution calls on the State to "promote a just and dynamic social order that will ensure the prosperity and independence of the nation and free the people from poverty...

...Marcos more than tripled the size of the military between 1965-85, yet at the same time he weakened it by promoting officers for their loyalty to him rather than their professional talents, and by funding his personal security forces to the detriment of units in the field...

...Richard J. Kessler, a new NL contributor, is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace...

...and the Power of the Nation Party, which includes many of her Cabinet members...

...The President is to serve only one sixyear term...

...Yet if she does not become intimately involved in the selection of candidates at both the national and local levels, and instead restricts herself to annointing candidates chosen by others—as she says she might —she will have little control over the new Congress...

...Aquino has very limited resources to steer her government between the two extremes...

...A program of retraining and reequipping the military—still badly factionalized after the February 1986 revolution and November coup plots—began in earnest just last December, with the appointment of the respected retired General Rafael lieto as Defense Minister, lieto has to develop a method for rooting out the Communist infrastructure and re-establishing government control—not an easy task given the military's limited resources and the countrywide network of the Communists...

...It suffered a blow when, despite its strong opposition the Constitution was overwhelmingly approved even in Communist strongholds...

...An officer in Mindanao explained, "Since Cory took over the presidency, instead of the insurgency going down, it appears to be going up, and the people are fed up...

...Those elected to the first Congress will hold office until 1992...

...Representatives are to be elected by district and limited to three three-year terms...

...Aquino has thus far avoided active participation in the new political formations preparing to compete in the elections...

...Of the fundamental changes specifically mandated by the Constitution, the most controversial have to do with land distribution and American military bases...

...The campaign is bound to be intense and violent, because it will represent a "last chance" for many older politicians...

...On the Left, the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), established in 1968, has spread to most of the country's 73 provinces...

...I hate to say it, but I would rather see the Philippines be like Chile than like Cambodia...

...Evidence of this was again provided earlier last month when nearly 80 per cent of the electorate approved the new Constitution that will keep her in office until 1992...

...But emphasis on the economy's poor performance during the final years of Marcos'rule, and on his leftover $27.8 billion foreign debt, masks more serious long-term difficulties...

...Militarily, Aquino fell heir to Southeast Asia's most active Communist insurgency, and to an army too poorly equipped and trained to handle the situation...

...to appoint acting mayors and governors...

...Nonetheless, Manila is abuzz with rumors of coups, plots and revolutions...

...Personal popularity is her principal asset, and her supporters' reservoir of patience may be running low...

...This poses yet another challenge: Written by 48 delegates, the 24,000-word document is an amalgam of good intentions and potentially contentious prescriptions...

...As for the bases, it stipulates that a new treaty determining their status after 1991 must be ratified by both the Philippine and U.S...

...I am hoping that when it comes, the Right will have the upper hand...

...At first, she relied on recently dismissed Minister for Local Government Aquilino Pimentel Jr...

...Meanwhile, the effective retention of power by the old elites has disillusioned many in the middle and lower classes...

...Corruption and lack of resources often make effective local government and the execution of justice virtually impossible...

...A private survey by the respected Makati Business Club, an organization of wealthy businessmen, has concluded that the annual rental for the bases should not be less than $1.2 billion, according to the report's author...

...At times the Aquino administration has been immobilized by the depth of its problems...

...forces in Vietnam and never satisfactorily resolved...

...Now a different strategy is emerging...

...Having weathered a year of the Aquino rule without suffering major defections, the CPP is openly attacking the President...

...Congress would accede to such a demand...

...And the economic oligarchy is no more accommodating...

...The Aquino government has already begun three major studies on the bases with an eye toward renegotiation, and discussions with Washington could be initiated before the end of 198 7. A Philippine official directing one study believes that the treaty will eventually have to be terminated if the country is ever to be free to pursue the "independent foreign policy" called for in the Constitution...

...The Constitution's permanent provisions are straightforward enough...

...The landless—those without land for either farm or home—have increased from about 9 per cent of the population in 1950 to an estimated 30 per cent at present...

...Targeted for an average annual increase of 6.4 per cent in real GNP, the plan is calculated to reduce unemployment and underemployment to 30 per cent in 1992, and poverty to 45 per cent—the levels they were at in 1983...

...Negotiations concerning the U.S...

...So far the former housewife and political neophyte has demonstrated a steady hand in the face of serious crises...

...Beyond the tricky issues raised by the Constitution, Aquino and the Congress will have to confront the mounting Communist insurgency, now claiming an average of eight lives daily...

...The same problem was faced by U.S...

...A similar position taken by New Zealand caused theU.S...

...Giving the initial group of legislators five-year stints raises the ante in the May elections...

...Over the past two decades Filipinos have reproduced themselves more efficiently than any commercial product, maintaining a 2.8 per cent population growth rate that has strained the nation's resources, particularly arable land...

...Unfortunately, he replaced many officials elected during the Marcos era with unpopular people...

...bases will not be made any easier by another constitutional provision requiring that "consistent with the national interest" the Philippines adopt "a policy of freedom from nuclear weapons in its territory...

...It is the case of a popular president but a government which is not very popular," a prominent political leader observed...

...The top guys go but the system stays the same...

...After that date, representatives are to begin serving three-year terms...

...Aquino also inherited an administrative infrastructure in dangerous disrepair...

...Most of the political, military and economic obstacles in the President's path to progress are the legacy of two decades of Marcos rule...

...Economically, the country has registered only slight improvement under Aquino...

...to break off its longstanding defense relationship with that country...

...Aquino lacks a trusted political adviser whose opinions are not colored by personal ambition...

...Its position was typified by the remark of a wealthy sugar-grower on the island of Negros about the redistribution of land: "What right do they [the poor] have to it other than that they are poor...

...Senates, and submitted in a referendum to the Filipino people...

...But hostile attitudes toward the Army are difficult to eliminate in the rural areas, where suspicion runs deep...

...After Marcos was driven from power, the Left toyed with the idea of supporting Aquino—of using what they called the new "democratic space" to work with "progressive" elements in the government...

...As a priest in Davao put it, "People are saying: What has changed...

...A year ago a rebellion brought Aquino to power, but the real revolution—a social one— is still to come...

...The income share of the poorest third is supposed to increase from 9.2 per cent in 1985 to only 9.8 per cent in 1992...

...In August another ballot is tentatively set for about 3,000 local officials, including 73 provincial governors and 1,500 mayors...

...It will take a minimum of 11 years for the electoral process to operate on schedule, prolonging the democracy's normalization period...

...The challenge that mood implies has to be met in the course of implementing the Constitution which was approved in a hotly contested plebiscite that brought Aquino and other Manila politicians into the countryside...

...On the Right, disenfranchised elements of the New Society Movement (Marcos' once powerful political machine), anti-Marcos elites excluded from the present government, and dissidents in the military all practice their own forms of subversion...

...Except for a handful of Cabinet ministers dedicated to national reform, the majority of the bureaucracy continues to resist change...

...Most economic policymakers are technocrats or successful businessmen, not politicians...

...The problem is not the AFP's [Armed Forces of the Philippines] training," noted a Western military officer, "but their counterinsurgency concept of how to focus on a province-by-province approach to recovering barangays [villages] they have lost and making them safe...

...Unemployed and underemployed workers currently account for over 50 per cent of the labor force...

...These are the accouterments of her enemies, who include—from Right to Left —allies of former President Ferdinand E. Marcos, factions within her own military, Moslem secessionists, and the 20odd-thousand-strong Communist New People's Army (NPA...

...People do not see the government's presence...

...Government officials and foreign analysts agree that it will take Aquino at least another two years to rebuild the Armed Forces, and this was a major consideration behind her pressing for cease-fire talks with the Communists...

...This misjudgment of the popular will—reminiscent of the Party's ignored calls to boycott the national assembly elections in 1984 and the presidential election in 1986—has presented the government with an opportunity to initiate the kind of program that could convince people to abandon the Communist cause...

...Talks aimed at continuing the 60-day cease-fire that ended February 8 broke down after 18 demonstrators for land reform were killed by Philippine soldiers on January 22...

...The Left, however, offers Aquino little flexibility in pursuit of this goal...

...Senators are to be elected at large and can serve a maximum of two six-year terms...

...More to the point, lacking strong direction from the President, the body is likely to get embroiled in the sort of endless debates that led to Marcos' declaration of martial law in 1972...

...The situation in the provinces has not changed," an American aid official said...