Iran's Smiling Powerbroker

WRIGHT, ROBIN

AFTER THE IMAM Iran's Smiling Powerbroker BY ROBIN WRIGHT In 1962 an Iranian seminary student in Qom signed a petition demanding freedom for Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had been...

...A shrewd manipulator, the Speaker knows when to take cover and militants had gotten wind of the controversial negotiations...
...The Speaker's opponents in the government are virtually all more strident politically, and many key theologians outside thegovernment dispute Khomeini's version of Islamic rule...
...His coming from a landed family notwithstanding, he favors major reforms to redistribute land and resources—in effect, the breaking up of massive holdings to help the millions of "oppressed," for whom the Revolution was carried out...
...Consequently, "Khomeini-ism," or rule by Islam, appears certain to survive Khomeini...
...That year, for the first time, I began political activity...
...One of the significant aspects of those conditions is that they do not involve requests for new arms sales...
...The young man would reflect: "Khomeini was in the vanguard and struggled more firmly than many others in this cause...
...Thismoderation does not mean Iran will surrender either to the Western capitalists, who pursue a policy of bullying, or give in to the oppressor Communists...
...Early purges removed Leftists and secular moderates and shifted the scope of the political spectrum, triggering confusion in the West about precisely what an Iranian "moderate" is...
...gives up using force and violence and returns our [financial and weaponry] assets held in the U. S., then such an act can be construed as evidence that America is telling the truth...
...Rafsanjani's concept of the future has led one U.S...
...Most of the Cabinet, and many more politicians as well, are in debt to Rafsanjani...
...At the same time, he would protect individual ownership rights where they do not result in the exploitation of others...
...Onaminimumof six occasions he has repeated that Iran might still be willing to deal with the "Great Satan...
...Prime Minister Mir Hussein Mousavi owes his job to the Speaker, for he was not the first choice of President Ali Khamenei...
...Among clerics outside the government, "there are a lot of critics but no real contenders to replace him," observed a State Department official recently...
...Although he was considered a radical during the initial phase of the Revolution, Rafsanjani now heads the pragmatic bloc...
...I, who was with him, was his student and...
...Others have urged the military to march all the way to Karabla, a Shiite holy place deep in Iraq...
...Moreover, even within the context of militant Islam, rivalry is intense...
...He is considered tobe against long-term Iranian occupation of Iraq in the event of a clear-cut victory, but the mullahs are unanimous in wanting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to step down...
...Short-term, mother words, the Revolution's next phase will probably be characterized by "stable disequilibrium"—that is, frequent yet not destabilizing inner upheavals...
...Without major outside support, neither a guerrilla campaign nor an open political bid can uproot what—despite war, isolation, rationing, and growing domestic grumbling—remains a popular revolution...
...Even then, no one man is likely to have the singular control that has typified Khomeini's leadership...
...Most of the serious competition from Leftists or moderates was eliminated in the purges and executions when the Ayatollah took over...
...Necessity breeds compromise...
...they prefer isolation as the best means of preserving the Revolution's "purity" and frequently justify extremism to undermine Western and regional rivals...
...Upon receipt of such documentary evidence, we will assist with the Lebanese problem...
...Rather, they seek to secure outdated and reportedly rusting weapons paid for by the Shah that have been sitting in U.S...
...Directly addressing "the Americans," he said that in principle Iran could have relations with all nations except South Africa and Israel as long as they "honor our Revolution"—a remark that went against the tide of others' vitriol then and now...
...The chairman of the Council of Experts is Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri...
...He had a seat on the secret Revolutionary Council that oversaw the transition from a monarchy to a theocracy, and he was one of the six founders of the now dominant Islamic Republican Party...
...A divisive power struggle is far from over...
...It should be borne in mind, too, that in a nationwide referendum, Rafsanjani was elected to the Council of Experts, which has been charged with selecting the Imam's successor and overseeing the transition...
...His clandestine operations contributed to the mass uprisings in 1978 and 1979 that eventually forced the Shah to abandon the Peacock Throne...
...Deeply implicated in the "arms-for-hostages" negotiations with the U. S., Rafsanjani began hinting at reconciliation with Washington as early as 1983...
...We must be alert and not be deceived by such gestures," he warned...
...a former Mideast correspondent, is a senior associale al the Carnegie Endowment for international Peace...
...Islam has strong capitalist traditions mixed with a commitment to take care of the faithful...
...But he has consolidated his power in such a wide variety of political, military and religious agencies that the future cannot be decided without his playing a prominent, if not determining, role...
...As the power behind the chief theocrats, he will barter political deals among all of them and gradually accumulate points in the religious hierarchy, with his sights set on Iran's long-term future—and his own...
...Opposition to land reform, ironically, has come from clerics considered militant on foreign policy...
...warehouses for eight years...
...AFTER THE IMAM Iran's Smiling Powerbroker BY ROBIN WRIGHT In 1962 an Iranian seminary student in Qom signed a petition demanding freedom for Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had been arrested after delivering a seething speech against the Shah...
...In the 1985 elections, however, Khamenei retained his post with too thin a margin to give him the clout to pick his own Cabinet...
...In exchange for the Mousavi appointment, Rafsanjani helped win Parliamentary approval for the rest of the President's appointments...
...The Speaker has been less militant about the grisly six-year Gulf war while serving as Khomeini's personal representative on the Supreme Defense Council that controls the Armed Forces...
...We know that behind those smiles rest hearts filled with animosity, greed and hostility toward the Islamic Revolution...
...The aftermath of this past November's revelations has provided additional proof of his strength...
...But they are staunch conservatives on economic policy, in part because of their own constituencies...
...But the charismatic Speaker, whose oftphotographed smile makes him stand out in the glowering theocracy, is amaster of Iran's labyrinthine Oriental intrigue and the bartering inherent to the country's tradition of bazaari politicking...
...Speaking recently before an all-male audience, he said women had the right to get higher education and to work outside the home...
...Within the government, both the President and the Prime Minister—the two other top officeholders—are beholden to the Speaker...
...In fact, he is at present vice-chairman of the panel, adding to his prestige...
...Nonetheless, in the spring he did not, as had been promised, personally meet with former National Security Adviser Robert C. McFarlane during his covert trip to Teheran...
...He is expected to be the front man in the first stage of the post-Khomeini era, when the theocrats will face fresh threats from the exiled monarchists, the Mojahedin underground and other opposition groups...
...Robin Wright...
...That and his intense interest in preventing the war with Iraq from dragging on indefinitely may explain why he became involved in behind-the-scenes talks with the U.S...
...Nevertheless, Rafsanjani's positions are an indication of ho w the second most important revolution of the 20th century has begun to settle down...
...At the minimum, his high visibility indicates he feels comfortable with breaking new ground...
...official to call him " the only modern man" in Iran's government...
...some would establish another Islamic republic in Baghdad...
...His role was reluctantly acknowledged at the time by the State Department and, more important, was one factor that led the National Security Council to probe possible dealings with Iranian "moderates...
...In general, the Speaker has demonstrated creative initiative over the past two years in pushing his programs, apparently with the Imam's approval...
...In November Rafsanjani was photographed aboard a ship as he monitored Iranian naval maneuvers along the Strait of Hormuz, the global "chokepoint" for Gulf oil...
...Like all Iranian leaders, though, Rafsanjani is instinctively suspicious of the current flurry of diplomatic approachesfromboththeEastandtheWest...
...Now, with Iran celebrating the eighth anniversary of its Revolution February 1, Speaker of the Parliament Rafsanjani, 53, seems the member of the ruling inner clique most likely to direct the Islamic Republic's course in the post-Khomeini era...
...Iran's leading powerbroker, who represents a younger, more flexible generation, is also the man the West would like to see directing what is certain to be a turbulent post-Khomeini period—a fact that ultimately works against him...
...The "activity" changed Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's life...
...Throughout his mentor's subsequent 15-year exile, he was a secret link with the Imam's followers back home...
...The definition has changed as whole categories have been eliminated...
...As a hojatoleslam, the step beneath an ayatollah, Rafsanjani does not yet have the religious rank he needs to inherit Khomeini's titular position as "Supreme Jurisprudent...
...Rafsanjani, who is as cunning as he is charming, will be a vital element in keeping the government working during and after the next turning point in Iranian history...
...Actually, from the moment of the 1979 Revolution he was a key player...
...1 drew closer to him...
...For the various theocratic factions can be counted on to pull together in order to confront the challenges to the regime...
...In 1985, Rafsanjani persuaded the Lebanese fanatics who held 39 Americans for 17 days on a TWA plane to end the hijacking...
...Yet with Khomeini's help he seems to have survived unscathed...
...Before long he experienced the first of at least four imprisonments...
...His white turban and flowing robes were a stark contrast to the officers' neat uniforms, but analysts believe the cleric does know weaponry...
...If the U.S...
...Further, his second term as Speaker makes Rafsanjani one of the longestserving officials in the Islamic Republic and a symbol of its increasing stability after a wave of bombings eliminated key figures, including a president and a prime minister, in 1980-81...
...Trying to undercut him, they eventually leaked the story to a Beirut paper...
...On the other hand, Rafsanjani's views concerning the hotly disputed economic issues of land reform and nationalization make clear that the nation's clergy cannot be neatly divided into "moderate" or "militant" camps...
...Indeed, it will not reach its peak until the frail octogenarian Imam finally dies...
...We heartily dislike seeing people taken hostage," he said in November, and again to American journalists invited to Teheran in January...
...He also reminded men of their household obligations...
...When the tide began to turn in Iran's favor in 1982, he cautioned that Teheran should not be "adventurous...
...Khomeini has increasingly allowed various functionaries to run the country, usually getting into the picture only to arbitrate disputes...

Vol. 70 • January 1987 • No. 1


 
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