Moscow's Perilous Charms

...A British friend told me recently, "I'm not sure I'm happy being protected by America...

...Especially impressive are the signs that Gorbachev might be willing and able to divert substantial resources from the Soviet military in an attempt to overcome spectacular domestic economic inadequacies and show that an efficiently functioning socialist system is more than a pipe dream...

...The energetic activities of antinuclear groups notwithstanding, there was wide agreement at the time that Western Europe had to be effectively equipped for its defense...

...The exact contours of the anticipated changes, though, are likely to be affected as well by what the Gorbachev factor turns out to be...

...THE THREAT TO NATO Moscow's Perilous Charms BY NORMAN GELB London The new Soviet leadership, exhibiting masterly public relations skills, is putting a greater strain on the Western Alliance than the menacing postures of past Kremlin hierarchies ever did...

...With Gromyko," one British official said, "we knew where we stood...

...Indeed, although it tends to be forgotten, it was European leaders, led by former Social Democratic West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, who in 1977 started prodding the U.S...

...Thus cruise and Pershing II missiles began to be deployed on the Continent in 1983...

...It was 'nyet, nyet, nyef all the time...

...Others in Europe are similarly inclined...

...to place intermediate range nuclear weapons in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (nato) countries...

...General Bernard W. Rogers, the Supreme Allied Commander of nato, is particularly worried about the widening antinuclear sentiment...

...Yet one senses his deep conviction when he argues that if nato's deterrent capacity becomes questionable, there is a real possibility the Russians "will test us...

...The deficiency will persist, moreover, until Western European nations decide to devote a larger part of their wealth to these costly forces...

...But Gorbachev has at least begun to convince many heretofore skeptical Europeans that fundamental changes for the good are taking place in the Soviet Union...

...The specter of radiation creeping westward from the Ukraine has done more to persuade Europeans that anything nuclear—be it a reactor or a missile— is a menace to everybody, starting with its possessor, than all the national peace movements put together...

...It described Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger's use of cartoon images to convince the President of America's defense needs...

...The Secretary-General, Lord Carrington, has even warned against making the United States—with its nuclear missiles and third-of-a-million troops based on European soil—feel that it has outstayed its welcome...

...Suddenly it's smiles, handshakes and urgings that we all be reasonable...

...Further, the antinuclear animus in Europe dovetails with Gorbachev's success at undermining Western concern over the Soviet military threat...

...Mad had a serious credibility problem, however, in that it called for the U.S...

...There is also talk of setting up an additional structure that would make it possible for Japan, with its wealth and industrial might, to formally participate in a broader alliance...

...Under the original Mutual Assured Destruction (mad) strategy, all types of Russian aggression toward Western Europe were to be deterred by the prospect of a massive strategic nuclear strike from the United States...

...But he was reacting to a passage he had just read in David Stockman's The Triumph of Politics (given Sunday newspaper serialization here...

...And given the growing anticipation of detente, not to mention the sluggish performance of the European economies, such a decision is hardly imminent...

...Yet never before have there been equally seductive indications that the Soviet leadership is seeking a genuine detente with Europe rather than a mere cover for expansion elsewhere in the world...

...That is a bit ironic, since one of nato's purposes when it was founded in 1949 was to ensure that Germany would never again be a major military power...

...The catastrophe at Chernobyl may turn out to have baneful consequences for the Western Alliance in this respect...

...The concern has been heightened by a basic distrust of Ronald Reagan's Administration that is taking hold...

...Or does it...

...To correct the situation, two decades ago the shift was made to the present Flexible Response strategy, involving the arming of n ato units with battlefield nuclear weapons...

...But ironies abound...

...It is both disarming and confusing...

...the West a mix of options—strategic nuclear force, tactical nuclear force or conventional forces—for countering a range of possible Soviet actions...

...True, it is Rogers' job to worry...

...That leaves the nuclear deterrent—strategic or tactical—as nato's only viable response to a significant Soviet probe...

...was right to bomb Libya...

...Clearly, too, the Soviet troops, tanks, attack aircraft, and theater nuclear weapons based in the Warsaw Pact countries greatly exceeded what was required to maintain Communist control or defend them from outside incursions...

...They'll move their forces in and say, 'I dare you to do something about it.'" There is little question in his mind that Soviet conventional forces are capable of sweeping across Europe with ease...

...Nevertheless, European leaders generally concur that nato must maintain the ability to keep the Russians at bay, and many of them share the Supreme Commander's views...

...to risk a potentially suicidal reaction to the slightest Soviet challenge (or blunder) in Europe...

...For example, in 1966, France under Charles de Gaulle withdrew from military involvement with nato, and now it may end up leading the way in rethinking the functions and strategy of the Western Alliance...

...The spreading neutralist mood in West Germany, nato's frontline on the Continent, is a special source of anxiety...

...Earlier Russian leaders, notably Leonid Brezhnev, had made cooing noises toward the West of the kind now emanating from the Kremlin...

...He happens to be one of those rare Europeans who believes the U.S...

...The major shortcoming of the Flexible Response scheme is that the West has never had sufficient conventional forces to make the third option a live one...

...If this mood proves contagious, the tactical and strategic nuclear options for defending Europe from Soviet aggression could be imperiled, critically impoverishing the Flexible Response strategy...

...Even some here who remain convinced that the USSR is the same determined adversary it has always been are a bit befuddled by Moscow's sweetness-and-light campaign...

...The British Labor Party, which might conceivably form the next government in London two years from now, has announced that it is ready to turn its back on a nuclear defense...

...This was to allow Norman Gelb, The New Leader's regular London correspondent, is the author most recently of Scramble: A Narrative History of the Battle of Britain...

...They will make a move on the flanks or around Berlin...

...Reconciling this difference of perspective has always been difficult, and it has become all the more so in the face of a growing impression that peace in Europe is perhaps being jeopardized by the actions of the United States elsewhere in the world...

...With Gorbachev projecting the image of a man of peace, the Rogers scenario may seem daftly improbable...

...Prior to General Secretary Mikhail S. Gorbachev's ascension to power, little doubt existed in the capitals of Western Europe about the danger posed by the Soviets...

...One way or another, of course, the nuclear weapons have long been a part of the nato approach to dealing with Soviet belligerence...

...The French shudder at the prospect of West Germany withdrawing from the Alliance or reducing its military role...

...Whatever is ultimately decided, it is apparent that the consensus on this side of the Atlan tic is for closer and more detailed American-European consultations—another way of saying greater European influence when it comes to decision-making...

...Whether he will prevail, and whether the USSR's paranoiac obsession with what it believes to be its security requirements will be tempered to the point where it really no longer looks menacing to Western Europe, remain to be seen...

...Add to this the Soviet Union's vigorous effort to win friends in the West, and you can understand why nato is devoting increasing attention these days to justifying its existence...

...When European nations speak of East-West relations, they are thinking about their own future—the United States thinks of the globe...

...Their unflagging willingness to expend vast resources on expanding an already enormous military machine, despite severe domestic economic troubles, was evidence enough...

...Meanwhile, America's bombing of Libya and subsequent Soviet warnings against any comparable missions against Syria have intensified the European debate on the objectives of the Western Alliance and the contradictions inherent in it...