The Kremlin Psyche
KENEZ, PETER
The Kremlin Psyche The Soviet Paradox: External Expansion, Internal Decline By Seweryn Bialer Knopf. 391 pp. $22.95. Reviewed by Peter Kenez Professor of history, University of California,...
...What he gives us is an intelligent, sophisticated and nuanced analysis of Soviet problems and behavior, based on a thorough knowledge of the Soviet Union and its history...
...the Chinese government has a strong incentive to draw closer to the United States...
...He shows how they follow from the very nature of the political order, and from the specific methods used to carry out the great industrialization drive of the 1930s...
...labor productivity is low and not improving...
...Reviewed by Peter Kenez Professor of history, University of California, Santa Cruz...
...on the other, friendly relations and concessions will not turn the USSR into a liberal country...
...The magnitude of the USSR's economic difficulties, long recognized by knowledgeable Western observers, has recently begun to be discussed more openly and realistically even by its leaders...
...Bialer argues that the problems are not a result of one or another mistaken past decision...
...Thanks to irrational incentives, the economy is riddled with waste...
...How should American policy makers manage their relations with the Soviet Union...
...Bialer dismisses the notion that Soviet foreign policy is simply defensive...
...The Eastern European empire is costly at atime when the Soviet Union can ill afford the expense...
...In evaluating the prospects for the Soviet economy, Bialer is characteristically temperate...
...Words mean a great deal to the Russians, and as leaders of an insecure power—weak in every way, except militarily—they crave "respect" and equality...
...TheU.S...
...During periods of tension between the two superpowers the Chinese have a much better opportunity to maneuver...
...The Soviet Union and the United States have different national interests, reflecting their history, geography and ideology, so conflicts are inevitable...
...These are critically important questions, and in his new book Seweryn Bialer helps us answer them...
...He assumes the Soviet leaders will not want to take restructuring steps that go as far as those of the Chinese or the Hungarians...
...Maintaining civil relations with the Soviet Union will make it easier to reduce the danger of an unwanted explosion...
...Although Moscow has managed to tone down its rhetorical battle with Beijing, a genuine and long-term improvement of Sino-Soviet relations is not likely either...
...The concluding section of the book, discussing Soviet-American relations and the rationale of Soviet foreign policy, is especially interesting...
...and the country is incapable of entering the competition in the vital field of electronics...
...Bialer predicts mounting repression throughout Eastern Europe in the Gorbachev era...
...But the Soviet Union will not collapse, and the regime, in Bialer's opinion, will still have the resources to pursue a troublesome foreign policy...
...No useful purpose is served by paying back its publicists in kind and imitating their rhetorical excesses...
...Cold War exploits similarly serve to mobilize support in these circumstances...
...The problems therefore will not be overcome, and this could produce some labor unrest as workers vent their frustration at the lack of further improvement in their standard of living...
...It is not within the realm of the possible to affect internal Soviet developments...
...On the one hand, a new arms race will not push the Soviet Union into bankruptcy...
...They have learned that involvement in places where Soviet concerns are only marginally at stake is usually not worth the cost and the risks...
...the labor force, which once increased steadily, will not continue to grow in the next decade...
...American firmness in defense of its vital interests will be respected by the Soviet Union...
...First of all, they must scale down their expectations...
...Surveying the world from the perspective of the Kremlin, Bialer comes away with a gloomy view...
...author, "The Birth of the Propaganda State" How much is the So viet Union likely to change under Mikhail Gorbachev...
...Thus the leaders, besides wanting to assure the Soviet Union's security to the fullest extent possible, are committed to expanding its influence around the world...
...The conflicts between the superpowers are not merely caused by misunderstandings, notes Bialer, though such misunderstandings do make the world more dangferous...
...The USSR is a new major power, and it not only likes to flex its muscles but is opposed to the status quo...
...It will vigorously defend its interests and will not give concessions lightly...
...Since the Communist regimes have not succeeded in achieving legitimacy, the next decade promises more pressures...
...Precisely because of its inherent weakness, the Soviet Union must not exhibit seeming weakness...
...The relative expansion of the Soviet GNP vis-a-vis the American has not progressed in 10 years, and in absolute terms the gap between the two economies has greatly widened...
...rather, they are systemic...
...Poland is a particular running sore...
...Soviet expansionism has many sources...
...Bialer perceptively points out that in times of relatively good relations between the USSR and the U.S...
...must be satisfied with limiting the inevitable conflicts...
...But he sees a paradox: The internal problems requiring immediate attention and a concentration of resources are unlikely to moderate assertive Soviet behavior in the international arena...
...Soviet foreign policy makers are not adventurists, however...
...In addition, foreign policy successes are an important legitimizing force in a period when the regime is unable to satisfy domestic desires and disillusionment with Communist ideology is widespread...
...To begin with, Marxist-Leninist ideology has convinced the men in the Kremlin that international conflict is natural and ever present, and that history is on the side of the Communist order...
...Bialer begins by acquainting us in detail with the domestic economic and political constraints the men occupying the Kremlin now face in conducting their foreign policy...
...To make its economy function, the workers would have to accept sacrifices, but they are so alienated that any decrease in their living standards would probably have politically explosive consequences...
...It is to Bialer' s credit that he of fers no panaceas...
...What do the changes imply for the future of Soviet foreign policy in general and Soviet-American relations in particular...
...Bialer does not expect the rebirth of detente in this decade...
...Furthermore, it is in the Soviets' interest to arrive at agreements with the United States that would prevent an escalation of the arms race, and they would do almost anything to avoid a nuclear confrontation...
Vol. 69 • April 1986 • No. 7
