Shamir Takes the Helm

...Although it is of course too early to make any firm predictions, the widespread assumption here is that the Likud-Labor coalition will hold up for its concluding 25 months...

...Were new elections to be declared, furious in-fighting for the top slot would start between him and his main Likud rivals, Housing Minister David Levi and Trade Minister Ariel Sharon...

...Significantly, the recent terrorist attack near the Western Wall in Jerusalem (where one person was killed and 59 people, including many soldiers, were wounded), and the shooting down of an Israeli Air Force Phantom retaliating against a terrorist base in Southern Lebanon (by a Soviet-made Strela missile), have quickly shifted attention from political predictions to security concerns...

...There will, though, be differences between the Peres and Shamir governments...

...This may have a major impact on future wage negotiations, and hence on continuing to restrain inflation...

...Shamir does not believe in them, yet seems to feel that as long as they are not officially buried they obviate the necessity to do something else about the Palestinians...

...It has kept two of the most virulent anti-Israeli countries in the Middle East tied down in their own conflict, and has caused a deep split among the Arab countries...

...In the area of external affairs, the biggest plus for Shamir may well be that in the next two years Israel probably will not be faced with making decisions of principle that could split the two dominant coalition partners along basic political and ideological lines...

...a good chance of keeping the leadership and could even hope to be rewarded at the polls by the electorate...

...From Israel's viewpoint, the Iran-Iraq war belongs on both sides of the ledger, too...

...Commentators place the oil glut itself both on the positive and the negative side of the Middle East ledger...

...For example, he is likely to be more influenced by Russian immigrants here who see no value in quiet diplomacy and insist that any Israeli-Soviet relations should be completely subordinated to stepping up the emigration of Soviet Jews...

...And Israelis generally may find life during the second half of coalition rule different than it was during the first half after all...

...Shamir further seems to think that relations with Cairo can be kept on a low burner...

...As usual, others maintain the opposite...

...It was widely suspected that Shamir's nit-picking during the Taba arbitration hassle was influenced by his desire to postpone as long as possible the return of the West Bank as the next item on the Middle East agenda...

...Perhaps more important, Shamir does not have a sharply focused policy toward Egypt and Jordan...

...Yet both issues evidently depend less on what Israel might do than on the state of superpower relations...

...ISRAELS NEXT TWO YEARS Shamir Takes the Helm BY ELIAHU SALPETER Tel Aviv The average Israeli, if asked, would probably say not much will change now that Labor Prime Minister Shimon Peres and Likud Foreign Minister Yitzchak Shamir —after a week-long hitch that remains something of a mystery—have executed the "rotation" of offices stipulated in the coalition agreement between the two major parties signed 25 months ago...

...In addition, Peres has made it clear that he would go to the voters in the event of a violation of the coalition arrangement, and latest public opinion tests give Labor a 3:2 majority...

...But in Peres view, raising the level of his personal credibility by demonstrating his reliability was of supreme importance for himself and for the long-term fortunes of the party...

...Meanwhile, Shiite extremism has become a new major source of international terrorism...

...To begin with, it is questionable whether Shamir will have the same good relations with (not to mention influence over) the General Confederation of Labor that Peres had...

...At the same time, reduced remittances to families from workers in oil-rich states have caused foreign currency shortages for the governments of Egypt and Jordan, plus serious difficulties for many hundreds of thousands of their citizens, which could create social unrest in those moderate Arab nations...

...The latest events underscored a much-publicized statement by a top Army commander who declared that war with Syria in the coming three-four years is inevitable...

...Reduced oil incomes have meant less Arab money for arms purchases, and (except, naturally, in Iraq and Iran) has somewhat slowed the arms race in the region...

...Nor does it appear that Jordan or the Palestinians will come up with a peace offer unacceptable to Likud but acceptable to Labor...

...Several observers here contend that Syria's difficult economic situation provides an added incentive for Assad to engage in a military adventure...

...Shamir's stewardship will probably bring about changes on other matters that may hit the front pages but have few practical consequences...

...He worries, though, that once purely Israeli-Egyptian questions are resolved, attention will again concentrate on the Palestine problem, the last thing he is interested in...

...The outcome of such a fight is by no means certain...

...Shamir is by nature a cautious man who prefers careful prearrangements to suddenfaitsaccom-plis...

...But Iran has been using the war to foster Islamic extremism throughout the Moslem world...

...Peres had several very good opportunities to break up the coalition, particularly after Ariel Sharon's virulent attacks on him and on the Cabinet (despite his being one of its prominent members...

...Party officials repeatedly urged the Prime Minister to take advantage of the strong pro-Labor trends in the public opinion polls...

...The best he could achieve was some tacit support on the West Bank to weaken PLO groups and strengthen pro-Hashemite elements...

...Shamir also has another good reason not to wreck the coalition boat: So long as he is Prime Minister, nobody in Likud will contest his party leadership...

...If so, Yitzchak Rabin, who has retained the post of Minister of Defense, may be under heavier pressure from Shamir than he was from Peres to enlarge the scope of retaliation against Arab terrorist acts...

...It is, however, an indication of how the country sees the next two years...

...Syria's very grave economic conditions notwithstanding, it is being pointed out, Assad keeps on spending over 40 per cent of its GNP on a military buildup...

...This has revived speculation that once he achieves his proclaimed goal of " strategic parity" with Israel, he will attempt a surprise grab of the Golan Heights in the hope that at least some of it will be in Syrian hands by the time the UN Security Council orders a cease-fire...

...Worse, after the war is over—even if it ends in a stalemate—substantial parts of Iraq's huge, well-trained, battle-tested Army can easily be shifted to Israel's northern and eastern borders...

...Its steady growth in Southern Lebanon could give Israel more trouble in the coming two years than it did in the past two...

...Similarly, Shamir reacts far more negatively than Peres to the idea of an "international framework" for Israeli-Arab negotiations...

...Peres strongly believed in the "Jordan initiatives" as a viable alternative to the deadlocked Palestine autonomy talks...

...Although the officer was publicly rebuked by the Chief of Staff, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad's bellicose statements are receiving close attention in the Israeli press...

...Peres' lengthy efforts to engage King Hussein in negotiations concerning the fate of the Palestinians and the West Bank ended in almost total failure...

...With the present world oil glut and low prices, they argue, the oil-rich countries arenotinapositiontobevery generous about financial assistance, so economically sagging Syria will therefore have to think twice about acting out its military fantasies...

...Without constant new probing, Hussein might again become largely passive on the West Bank, opening the field to the PLO...

...To be sure, he would like more trade, tourism and even better po-itical relations with Egypt...

...He needs to distract attention at home and attract increased financial support from oil-rich Arab countries, they reason...

...On the other hand, should cooperation with Peres enable Shamir to maintain the economic and political achievements of his predecessor, he would have Eliahu Salpeter, aregular'HL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...Neither does the present mood suggest that similar advances are expected under Shamir...

...This doesn't reflect a lack of appreciation for Peres' major achievements: withdrawing Israel's troops from Lebanon (except for a narrow security strip along the border), reducing the inflation from an annual rate approaching 1,000 per cent to about 20-25 per cent, restoring a civilized tone to political debate, and at the last moment compelling Likud to accept the terms for arbitrating the ridiculous dispute with Egypt over the tiny Taba beachfront strip in the Sinai...

...A superpower agreement on the Middle East does not seem likely for the time being...