Red Light for Italy's Communists
SENIGALLIA, SILVIO F.
AFTER BERLINGUER Red light for Italy's Communists bysilvo f sengalua Rome Italian movie buffs who recall II Sorpasso (the overtaking)—a popular, sharp-toothed 1960s film starring Vittorio...
...In any other Italian party, a similar setback would have triggered an open battle royal among cliques and individuals...
...For the Communists must finally recognize that they are supported by 30 per cent of the electorate but have no likely allies on the horizon...
...Inthepast, admittedly, theSo-cialists had not notably resented Communist attacks on a ruling coalition, even if the PSI was part of it...
...Actually, Natta's self-defeating comment about ilsorpasso was not the gravest mistake the PCI made over the last few months...
...instead, the PCI got clobbered, garnering only 30.8 per cent of the vote...
...Despite the objections of the Socialists, who claimed the Christian Democrats were blowing up the sorpasso risk as a means of strengthening their position at the expense of the smaller political formations, DC leader Ciriaco De Mita built his entire campaign around the Red peril...
...The June disaster was a fatal blow to the Communists' plan to destabilize the government...
...Much more serious was the decision to fight the DC and the Socialists simultaneously...
...No one was fooled by its blatantly ignoring a critical reality: In one year the Communists had gone from being .03 per cent ahead of the Christian Democrats to falling 4.2 per cent behind them...
...If the local Chernenko, dull and pedantic PCI General Secretary Alessandro Natta—successor to the late charismatic Enrico Berlinguer—could afford to be candid, he would recite the mea culpa and beat his breast...
...The move, instantly denounced as an act of social terrorism by all trade unions, appears to be a very controversial prelude to new wage negotiations that could undermine Craxi...
...By contrast, the government coalition (consisting of the DC, the Socialists, the Republicans, the Liberals, and the Social Democrats) had as a whole lost support since the previous administrative elections in 1980...
...The word sorpasso suddenly started popping up on the front pages of newspapers here...
...The two non-Communist federations, the predominantly Christian Democratic Italian Confederation of Free Unions and the Socialist-led Italian Union of Labor, had declared against the pay hike, as had Socialist elements in the PCI-dominated Italian General Confederation of Labor (CGIL...
...Except this time the drama was a political one, the aggressor was the Italian Communist Party (PCI), and its would-be victim was the long-dominant Christian Democratic Party (DC), which it hoped to surpass at the polls...
...That picture did not persuade...
...Nevertheless, the Central Committee's debate on the debacle was quite serene, and Natta's barely regretful analysis was approved unanimously...
...For he, after all, had created the specter of Communism on the march: During an April interview in the far-Left daily Manifesto, he announced that should the PCI come out on top in the administrative contests, while the ruling coalition parties fared so poorly that a new General Election was clearly in order, he would demand an official role in any ensuing national regime...
...But they view the current one as their own, and by persistently calling Craxi's policies detrimental to the workers' interests Natta turned potential future allies into bitter foes...
...The overtaking, of course, did not take place...
...Natta, or anyone who may succeed him, would clearly benefit from a perusal of Berlinguer's writings...
...Vet replacing Natta would almost inev itably require a very substantial change in the PCI's strategy, and its slow-moving machine is unlikely to make up its foggy collective mind about so vital a matter soon...
...Another fundamental PCI error, especially visible in the aftermath of May 12-13, was its refusal to accept the impossibility of a "Leftist alternative"— that is, a government consisting solely of Left-wing parties...
...2) there was, furthermore, no indication that this majority could be attained in the foreseeable future...
...Nonetheless, Craxi's victory is no guarantee of peace on the industrial front...
...Although the PCI had managed to out-poll the DC in 1984, they stressed, nothing terribly dire had happened...
...It was the PCI that looked forward to a fight over economic policy, even at the cost of widening the breach within organized labor...
...Three somewhat younger and less dogmatic personalities are mentioned most frequently: CGIL boss Luciano Lama, former Bologna Mayor Renato Zan-gheri and Giorgio Napolitano, PCI leader in the Chamber of Deputies...
...3) therefore, Communist participation in running the country can only come to pass through a modus vivendi with the Christian Democrats...
...After the referendum the major national association of industrialists, Confindustria, declared that it would not renew the current wage indexing agreement when it expires next January because it is excessively generous to the workers and diminishes Italy's competitiveness in world markets...
...As the campaign progressed the Communist leadership began to recognize the extent of the harm done by the General Secretary's blunder and tried to undo it...
...Natta could have made no better gift to the very party he sought to nudge from supremacy...
...Initially, an effort was made to put a good face on the poor showing...
...Natta's remarks had been far less strident than his opponent's propaganda made them seem, but they gave the Christian Democrats a winner...
...Better than 54 per cent of those who turned out voted No...
...Not surprisingly, he was joined in this appeal by the clergy, and even secured the active support of Pope John Paul...
...Ironically, the Prime Minister and Labor Minister Gianni De Michelis tried their utmost to find a compromise that would avert a showdown...
...Indeed, that possibility became the paramount issue in the administrative elections held throughout Italy last May 12 and 13, distracting attention from all regional problems...
...Leninist "democratic centralism" prohibits factionalism and frowns upon overt criticism of the man at the top...
...Interviewed by the weekly Europeo, Communist economist Na-poleone Colaianni, an irrepressible enfant terrible, spokeof the party's decline and pleaded for innovation and internal democracy...
...The Christian Democrats won 35 per cent and their primary partner in the government, Prime Minister Bettino Craxi's Socialist Party (PSI), took 13.5 per cent...
...whenever he decided to take a particularly tough stance toward the Christian Democrats he temporarily mended fences with the PSI, and vice versa...
...Although Berlinguer's attitudes hardened with the failure of his "historic compromise" policy, aimed at gaining his acceptance by the DC, he was always aware of the following basic truths: (1) Assuming it could secure a 51 per cent majority, a PCI-led Left coalition would still lack sufficient backing to enact a program of structural change...
...Natta had scared the wits out of middle-class Catholics, De Mita in effect asked them to embrace the DC to protect Italy's young democracy and its membership in the Atlantic alliance...
...At least, the PCI said, it could count on a "hard foundation"—30 per cent of the total electorate...
...AFTER BERLINGUER Red light for Italy's Communists bysilvo f sengalua Rome Italian movie buffs who recall II Sorpasso (the overtaking)—a popular, sharp-toothed 1960s film starring Vittorio Gassman as a criminally aggressive driver and Jean-LouisTrin-tignant as his victim—found themselves doing double takes in recent months...
...IN early June, the need for a reappraisal of the PCI's approach from that basic premise was underscored by an additional blow to the prestige of the party and its Secretary: In a nationwide referendum the voters rejected a Communist-sponsored proposal to restore 4 percentage points in pay increases that Craxi had clipped off the wage index in February 1984 to keep inflation under 10 per cent...
...As for Natta, despite the absence of any signs that he is in immediate danger of losing his job, Rome abounds with rumors about his possible successor...
...So the comrades soon abandoned their attempt at optimistic interpretations...
...Natta, ignoring that sound precept, denounced both the DC and Craxi's stewardship...
...But these soothing words did not come in time to prevent a considerable embarrassment...
...Thus there was merely an isolated case of dissent...
...Berlinguer had too much savvy for such foolishness...
...He apparently was emboldened by the fact that in the 1984 balloting for representatives to the European Parliament, the PCI for the first time pulled .03 per cent ahead of the DC...
...Aware that Silvio F. Senigallia regularly reports for The New Leader from Italy...
Vol. 68 • June 1985 • No. 8
