Replacing Trudeau
WALLER, HAROLD M.
THE CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGE Replacing Trudeau BY HAROLD M. WALLER Montreal Pierre Elliott Trudeau took an evening stroll through a severe blizzard last February 29 and decided he had been...
...proportionally larger than Reagan's...
...Unemployment remained stubbornly high at over 11 per cent, while the drop in inflation did not match that across the border...
...Yet the attorney's bilin-gualism, good looks and pleasing style have convinced many Liberals that he is their best hope against the popular but untested Mulroney in what will be an uphill struggle, since the Conservatives enjoy an exceptional lead of 20 points in public opinion polls...
...A longshot, but a very intriguing one, is Liberal Party President and former minister Iona Campagnolo...
...Campagnola is from British Columbia, giving her added attraction as an antidote to the Liberals' weakness in the West...
...After all, he had retired from politics in 1979 following his defeat by Clark, only to be resurrected by his party six months later when the Tory minority government fell (or, more accurately, pushed itself over) and the Liberals had to face the electorate before they could organize themselves to put up someone other than Trudeau...
...He has discreetly kept his lines open to party friends, though, and has always been widely regarded as heir apparent...
...Mulroney is strongly committed to keeping Quebec in the Confederation and would not be any easier on the separatists than Trudeau has been...
...Should the Conservatives in fact win, they are expected to adopt a pro-business stance and play down the social policy concerns that have animated the Liberals...
...Canada was hurt badly by the recent recession, prompting some provinces to take draconian measures to avert financial crises...
...And the Canadian dollar, stable against its American counterpart for over a year, noticeably weakened after February...
...Liberal MPs simply were unwilling to go to the polls with Trudeau again at the top...
...During the last four years Trudeau has managed to alienate an increasing proportion of Canadians, especially those west of his native Quebec...
...The other ministerial names under discussion are Eugene Whelan, John Mun-ro, Monique Begin and Yvon Pinard...
...concentrating on raising three sons and his writing, lecturing and teaching...
...Trudeau himself reportedly has reservations about conceding the succession to Turner...
...He proceeded to win a majority in the ensuing election and a new lease on his political life...
...Although considered credible competitors for the leadership, none are seen as having much of a chance...
...But it is not an insignificant matter to a party that prides itself on its appeal in both English and French Canada, and the inclination toward an English successor to Trudeau can only reinforce Turner's already impressive credentials...
...They would continue to conceive of Canada as bilingual, internal party dissension on the issue notwithstanding...
...The victory oriented Liberals, who are nothing if not pragmatic, could not long have endured even a leader of his stature, given an election outlook of less than 30 per cent of the vote and Parliamentary oblivion...
...An indefatigable Trudeau loyalist, he has held seven Cabinet posts...
...This tradition did not deter him from attempting to succeed the late Lester Pearson in 1968, and it is unlikely to head off Energy Minister Jean Chretien this year...
...He went on to serve in the Cabinet—mainly as Finance Minister—until the mid-70s, then dropped out of politics to practice corporate law in Toronto...
...Moreover, it appears that along with the Liberals the small New Democratic Party (NDP) would suffer serious cuts in its Parliamentary representation...
...The betting is that he can...
...Conjecture about Trudeau's successor had been rife for months when his announcement finally forced the declarations of various hopefuls in anticipation of the Liberal convention scheduled for mid-June in Ottawa...
...THE CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGE Replacing Trudeau BY HAROLD M. WALLER Montreal Pierre Elliott Trudeau took an evening stroll through a severe blizzard last February 29 and decided he had been Canada's Prime Minister long enough...
...Current evidence indicates that a strong Tory victory will carry Mulroney into office...
...His main problem at the moment is that his views on current issues are unknown, leaving pundits to evaluate him by recalling his political stance a decade ago (pragmatically right-of-center...
...The federal deficit hemorrhaged to about $24 billion (U.S...
...Such are the antics that add spice to life in a Parliamentary system, although Americans accustomed to the clock-like regularity of their own electoral calendar may find them bizarre...
...Still, it does seem clear that the Conservatives would win handily if the election were held today...
...The economic situation was not helpful either...
...An interesting factor in Turner's favor is the Liberal custom of alternating between English and French Canadian leadership...
...So Trudeau, after 15 controversial years—"interesting times," as he would say—is now Harold M. Waller, a frequent contributor, is Associate Professor of Political Science at McGill University...
...There have been persistent rumors, too, that he seeks an international position, perhaps UN Secretary General, and these were heightened by a winter peace initiative that took him to several world capitals...
...Chretien, an outspoken and gutsy lawyer from Shawinigan, Quebec, offers a strong alternative...
...James Coutts, a former Trudeau aide, has been mentioned as well...
...The favored scenario at present has Parliament being dissolved when the Pope leaves, and the balloting taking place in November...
...The foremost contender is 54-year-old John Turner, who finished third in the contest for party leadership in 1968...
...In any case, it is generally understood that it will not be held later than early spring 1985...
...The early Trudeaumania has dissipated and the luster worn thin...
...When the Progressive Conservative Party (incidentally, a name not logically inconsistent in Canada) replaced Joe Clark with the much more attractive and potentially electable Brian Mulroney, Liberals began to contemplate a not very palatable fate...
...This understandably resulted in agitation for the Prime Minister's departure within the party and even the caucus...
...There is likely to be little governmental activity while the Liberals thrash out the succession, the Tories gear up for the election and try to anticipate their opponent, and the NDP searches for ways to escape decimation...
...On top of all this the Liberals faced another constraint: If there was to be a new Liberal leader (and Prime Minister) , it was necessary for him or her to be chosen soon enough to allow some flexibility in setting the election date before the mandate of the present Parliament expires early next year...
...Not surprisingly, therefore, Mulroney is eager to get on with the contest...
...A new leader may well stimulate renewed support for the Liberals, who have no place to go in the polls but up...
...The big question right now is whether John Turner can jump from the boardroom to head of the Cabinet table...
...Yet as the surprises of the Democratic primaries in the United States have again demonstrated, predicting public opinion is a tricky business...
...Some analysts feel that if the polls look encouraging for the Liberals right after the convention in June, the election may be set for late this summer...
...She also has many friends, few enemies and a positive public image...
...Three hard-working yet unexciting ministers are making formal bids: Justice Minister Mark MacGuigan, Donald Johnston of Economic Development, and John Roberts of Employment and Immigration...
...With that month ruled out, the government's options are limited, since fall and spring are the traditional times for Canadians to vote...
...The next morning he announced his retirement from a post he has held since 1968, aside from Progressive Conservative Joe Clark's brief interlude in 1979-1980...
...The sensitive energy portfolio has required considerable fence-mending in Western Canada to undo the damage of his predecessor Marc Lalonde's program...
...To avoid charges that those in power are trying to capitalize on association with Pope John Paul II, however, an agreement has been reached that the campaign should not be in progress during his scheduled visit in September...
...And, of course, much could happen between now and election day...
...Once the new Prime Minister assumes office in late June, it could be called at any time on 30 days notice...
...It should be noted, however, that the gap narrowed slightly during the two months before Trudeau's announcement: Liberals can reasonably expect interest generated by the party leadership race and convention to benefit them futher by the summer...
...There are a number of other candidates, declared and undeclared...
...Despite her begging off, she is under great pressure to change her mind...
...If the decision had been expected for some time —indeed, there had been frenetic guessing as to the day of announcement— skeptics professed disbelief nevertheless...
...Now that the liberal leadership campaign is well under way, with candidates crisscrossing this vast country and party whips worrying that the absence of so many members from the House of Commons could cost the government the loss of a surprise vote, speculation is growing as to the actual date of the general election...
Vol. 67 • April 1984 • No. 8
