Ghosts of the Begin Era

...and the conditions for Israel's retreat from Lebanon were substantially reduced...

...missionary headquarters have been the targets of arsonists...

...It is the ghost of Jewish terrorism, though, that most frightens the majority of Israelis...

...Although by retaining every minister Shamir sought to prevent a disruptive fight among the parties making up the ruling Likud coalition, his words also were intended to reassure hard-liners that his reputed pragmatism would not mean any softening of policies...

...Aware that the public has become addicted to an ever rising standard of living, the government is afraid to make the relatively modest budget cuts—say, back to the mid-'70s level—that most experts believe would be sufficient to put the country on the right track again (see "The Economic Dilemma in Israel," NL, January 23...

...The West Bank in some respects poses a more difficult problem...

...For Israel, Syria's domination means that Lebanon, a region of anarchy where the PLO operated freely before June 1982, could become an outright "confrontation" country...

...Moreover, the number of those living below the poverty line has grown threefold since the Likud came into office in 1977...

...Yet if there is one thing he has wanted to do—and must do to stay in power—it has been to discreetly disassociate himself from his predecessor's domestic and foreign blunders...

...Instead of a terrorist danger, in other words, Lebanon could soon be a strategic threat to Israel...

...The settlers are up in arms about the firm implementation of these measures, and the Prime Minister's dependence on the votes of the small ultra-religious and ultra-nationalist parties makes it questionable that he will have the political strength he needs to stand firm...

...the Jews take the law into their own hands, shooting back and even initiating retaliatory action...

...By early February, most Israeli experts had come to the conclusion that Gemayel was so ineffective, his political survival had ceased to be important in the Lebanese equation...

...Those who have dealt with him report that he has trouble making decisions, and that when he finally does his word is unreliable...

...To top off the problem, recently published statistics show that despite an overall significant increase in living standards, the gap between the poor and the rich has widened considerably...

...First, pressure in the U.S...

...Three in particular continue to haunt him and erode his public support: the economic crisis...

...Three factors apparently combined to bring things to a head...

...withdrawal, the move could have very serious security consequences...

...On the other hand, staying on in Southern Lebanon would add to the casualty lists and increase tensions between Israel and the originally very friendly local population, as terrorist acts compelled the Israeli troops to take increasingly stringent control measures...

...At the same time, the Shiites, Gemayel's other mortal enemies, became much more intransigent and militant, thanks in no small measure to the expanding influence of Khomeiniism in their community...

...This has led to a tragic chain of events...

...HAUNTING SHAMIR Ghosts of the Begin Era by eliahu salpeter Tel Aviv Last fall, when Yitzchak Shamir was finally designated to take over as Prime Minister of Israel, he declared that his Cabinet would be a "photo-copy" of the departing Menachem Begin's...

...But even those in Labor who were inclined to seek a return to power through the back door rejected his overtures as a bad deal, given the deterioration of the situation here...

...As the settlers move in among them (frequently repossessing Jewish property abandoned during pre-1948 Arab pogroms), the Arabs throw stones at the Jewish vehicles, occasionally lay mines, or open fire...

...Much of the tension is directly attributable to the stand inherited from Begin...

...Shamir has not been able to shake off the ghosts of the Begin era, however...

...With the hasty pullout of the Marines, Syria fully demonstrated its predominant position in the country—which promises to have an impact not only on several Arab countries directly but, in an indirect way, on the growth of Khomeiniism...

...Most Israelis understand that as the authority in control, Jersualem is obliged to protect those living under its rule, and they view terrorism by the enemy as far less dangerous than terrorism originating from their own political Right...

...Syria and Libya are Iran's only Arab allies in its protracted war with Iraq...

...While attention was focused on the economy and the threat of domestic terrorism, the ghost of Lebanon unexpectedly assumed new dimensions that have cast a dark shadow over Israel...

...the leniency toward extremism by West Bank settlers that has encouraged what appear to be Jewish acts of nationalist and /or religious terrorism...

...Lately, acts of sabotage against Moslem and Christian religious structures and Arab institutions have escalated...

...The United States' ground presence exercised an important restraining influence on all the hostile forces in Lebanon...

...The police are currently discussing the introduction of ultramodern electronic alarm systems, Eliahu Salpeter, a regular contributor to the NL, is the co-author, with Dan Bavly, of Fire in Beirut, published this month by Stein and Day...

...efforts by Minister Without Portfolio Ariel Sharon to secure a specific post were firmly resisted...

...The previous Labor governments acceded to West Bank settlements only in areas not populated—or very sparsely populated—by Arabs, and on the basis of security considerations...

...The revisionist ideology offers moral legitimacy for Jewish settlements inside densely populated Arab areas, too...

...Had he, for example, ratified the May 17, 1983 troop withdrawal agreement with Israel right after it was decisively approved by the Lebanese Parliament, it is doubtful that its abrogation would have developed into the symbol of Syrian-PLO-Shiite demands on him...

...Jerusalem is now frantically searching for ways to salvage something from the efforts of the last year and a half that have cost close to 600 killed, thousands of wounded and billions of dollars...

...Local Israeli military authorities, influenced by the atmosphere emanating from the government, do not always try very hard to track down the culprits, which encourages additional acts of violence on both sides...

...and the morass in Lebanon...

...President Reagan's dramatic and sudden decision to remove the Marines from their base at Beirut Airport has, as several Israeli officials put it, reversed the situation in Lebanon at least to where it was before the Israeli invasion in the summer of 1982, and perhaps worse...

...Similarly, his vacillation about giving a more equitable role in the government and military command to Druse and Shiites, as urged by the Americans and the Israelis, contributed to the desertions from the Lebanese Army when the serious confrontations with the two groups started in and around Beirut...

...and in Israel to "bring the boys home,'' plus probable Soviet prodding, convinced Syrian President Hafez al-Assad to order his surrogates—the Druse, the Shiite militias, and the pro-Syrian PLO factions—to increase the military pressure on the areas still controlled by the Lebanese Army under President Amin Gemayel's command...

...The third, and probably most crucial, element in the disintegration was President Gemayel's lack of leadership qualities...

...The Free Lebanese Forces that were to play a key role in such a defense zone, now called the South Lebanese Army, need more time to reorganize and to develop a new leader following Major Saad Hadad's death from cancer several weeks ago...

...So he started the distancing process on his own: Finance Minister Yoram Aridor, who had led the country on a vast (and vote-getting, while it lasted) spending spree, was replaced by austerity-minded Yigal Cohen-Orgad...

...True, Arab attacks against Jews greatly exceed the outrages in the other direction, but that is small consolation...

...Shamir has made it clear that he would like to put a stop to the dangerous slide toward anarchy on the West Bank...

...Small wonder then, that Mena-chem Begin's "Peace for Galilee" adventure is today the number one ghost haunting Yitzchak Shamir...

...The second factor was double-pronged: The Druse fighters displayed a new self-confidence amid indications that their leader, Walid Jumblatt, had fallen more under the Syrians' control than he had expected when he made his alliance with them against Gemayel...

...As matters stand, should Israel decide to pull back its troops from the Aw-ali River to a much narrower defense zone north of the border in the wake of the U.S...

...It has been the scene of a hit-and-run machine-gun attack on an Arab university, shootings of Arab civilians by vigilantes, and dubious "law and order enforcement" by Jewish settlers permitted to carry arms for self-protection...

...Besides the foiled attempt to blow up the El Aqsa Mosque in the Old City of Jerusalem, one of Islam's holiest shrines, several mosque and church doors have been crudely booby-trapped...

...but in Jerusalem, where literally hundreds of holy places exist, it is practically impossible to protect them from fanatics...

...Shamir realized this could best be achieved by forming a "national unity government" with the Opposition Labor Alignment...

...Early this month the government issued a set of tough new regulations aimed at curbing illegal actions...