The Demographics o f ' 84

...The large increases in defense expenditure he has pushed through, for example—and the even larger ones, percentage wise, in the Justice Department budget—have undermined his efforts to slash Federal spending...

...The Republicans, whose leader in the White House has plenty of that, struggled with a mirror-image difficulty: a deficiency of zzaz-zip...

...In the pre-primary match-ups concocted on paper by pollsters, and in straws by prestige-hungry state Democratic organizations, the eight still stand in an order roughly parallel to the percentage of adult Democrats who recognize their names...

...For if he captures the support of, say, no more than 10 per cent of blacks and 45 per cent of white females (which is already slightly better than he did among women in 1980), he would need a full two-thirds of the white male vote to win...

...We're doing everything we can to get that support...

...Not even Dwight Eisenhower could do that...

...And it leads one to speculate whether Reagan's second-term campaign strategy will be simply to maximize his share of the white male vote...

...Put more crudely, zzazzip is supposed to enable the GOP to outline wholesale anti-tax and retail antispending policies in a way that doesn't make socially sensitive swing voters want to throw up...

...other men, 0.6...

...Nor do the polls generally indicate gender-based differences on the range of actions that would be tolerated in dealing with particular issues...

...Indeed, it might be more instructive at this point to keep an eye on what the major party organizations are doing out there than to concentrate on what their candidates are saying...

...As for the issues that the White House memo said women most often introduced into discussions with poll takers —inflation, unemployment, education, environment, Social Security, and poverty—Reagan shows little genuine interest in any except the first...

...About 42 per cent of them will be white men, 5 per cent black men, and 1 per cent other men...

...and other women, 0.6...

...We don't think the GOP can look for much in new registration or an increased GOP turnout," Kevin Phillips wrote last August in the American Political Report...

...Walter Mondale, the former Vice President, leads with over 40 per cent...

...But I would guess (I have no choice, since the Republicans are still keeping their target counties a secret) that we will see the President's party do a lot of registration at nonunion Southern factories that employ large numbers of men...

...While going out of his way to tell more than 2,000 local government and school officials in Indianapolis that he opposes more Federal spending on education per se, Reagan pledged that Justice would shift some of its technical assistance to the nation's schools in a push to improve discipline...

...Enfranchisement efforts exude a nice, neutral, patriotic image that would allow management to cooperate...

...In most polls, half of the remaining 35-40 per cent was split by George McGovern, once a real Presidential candidate, and Jesse Jackson, who this time around does not actually seek the nomination...

...The breakdown for the 145.9 million Americans who in 1982 told the Census Bureau they were registered to vote differs little: White men, 42.2 per cent...

...Yet he has one serious problem left as the campaign begins in earnest: The American people understand not only the messages the Great Communicator wants to send, but also those he, or at any rate his handlers, would rather de-emphasize...

...White women will represent 45 per cent of the total, black women 6 per cent, and other women 1 per cent...

...Dilemmas arise for the President only when fighting one evil entails tolerating another...

...Expounding on this in one of his early January radio addresses, he promised action in the courts to expand the rights of teachers and administrators seeking to enforce order...

...The Democrats are widely reported to be helping, if not actually joining forces with unions and organizations of blacks, women, social service providers, and Hispanics who are trying to register 5 million by election day...

...Nonetheless, the memo seems essentially to make sense as a guide to what people care about...

...black men, 4.1...

...Few individuals, naturally, are "all-male" or "all-female" in their concerns...

...His December initiative on education, though, was a four-bagger that wrapped into one mighty swat attacks on crime, drugs, taxes and outlays—just about everything except the problems America's children are having with the three Rs...

...A 1982 White House memo, after analyzing several years' worth of national polls, concluded that the issues men most consistently brought up in response to open-ended questions were crime, drugs, welfare cheaters, Communist aggression, taxes, and government spending—the priorities Reagan himself plainly treasures...

...In 1983, most Americans apparently never gave enough attention to the nine-way race (eight Democratic hopefuls plus the Republican incumbent) to be at risk...

...The last statement is undeniable...

...Then he began to stage a series of media spectaculars — climaxed by his trip to Syria to retrieve captured Navy bombardier Robert O. Goodman—that should win him enough delegates to extract concessions from the Democratic nominee...

...On July 1,1984, the bean counters estimate, 173.8 million Americans will be old enough to vote...

...In addition to national and state party funds, Reagan's campaign committee has earmarked millions of dollars freed up by the lack of a Republican primary opponent for recruiting some 3 million voters in the spring...

...That term emerged as the mantra of a bizarre gathering of 55 junior House Republicans and their spouses in Baltimore last Halloween...

...Some figures from the Census Bureau indicate that such an approach would be a mighty gamble on his part...

...The Vince Lombardi of American politics, he is a he-man from the bottom of his boots to the points of his candid, aw-shucks grin...

...But we're also working very hard to get out to women voters a message that hasn't yet gotten out...

...The sentiment the President projected, despite all the "Yes, buts," was summarized in brutal partisan hyperbole by Ann Lewis, political director of the Democratic National Committee: "Of all the people who Andrew Mollison, a frequent New Leader contributor, is chief political writer for the Cox Newspapers...

...Jackson's true goal, which goodness knows he mentions often enough, is to assemble a "rainbow coalition" that can help any Democrat defeat President Ronald Reagan in November...

...By either measure, wisdom hardly dictates that the President write off his weaknesses and play exclusively to his strength...

...Besides being pizzazz spelled backward, it is a buzzword for the attempt by hardline Right-wingers to describe afresh their vision of what one called the "Conservative Opportunity Society...

...His involvement could save the Democrats from the danger of blowing the black vote by acting on their conviction that it has nowhere else to go...

...For every other group the message is quite clear: 'You don't count and we don't care.' " Without a doubt, Reagan does appeal most strongly to the historic values and interests of Caucasian men...

...Nonetheless, Ann Lewis feels that is the direction Reagan is taking, though perhaps not entirely on purpose: "I don't think it's an articulated strategy," she told me, "but they are in effect pursuing a policy that widens the gender gap...

...have been insulted by this Administration, the only group to get an apology was the Beach Boys, and that's because they're affluent white males...

...While much has been made of the collapse of field organizations and the unchallenged primacy of the media in American politics, the low-key grassroots work could well be pivotal in '84...

...John Glenn, the ex-astronaut, has fallen back to his normal half of Mondale's level—following a thrust toward 30 per cent that began in the spring after his formal announcement and ended in the fall when Newsweek and Time overhyped the political impact of the movie version of Tom Wolfe's The Right Stuff...

...With the shining exception of Action Jackson, the Democrats also finished the '83 preliminaries displaying a distinct lack of pizzazz...

...Reagan is riding high at present...

...Basically, what this President is doing with the economy, with the welfare system, and so forth is good for all the people, and you can then extrapolate that as being good for women...

...First Jackson scotched the rumblings for a third-party movement among middle-class blacks...

...Less publicized are the GOP's planned counterdrives...

...Well, the people again proved smarter than the pundits...

...Upper-bracket voters already vote in high ratios...

...white women, 46.7 per cent...

...The Democratic contenders, after all their stumping, debating, straw-polling, speech-making, hand-shaking, and caucus-packing, ended the year right where they began...

...This aura contributes to the belief of the vast majority of Washington' s political practitioners, who are almost all white males, that Reagan has, if not a hammerlock, at least a half nelson on re-election...

...Terry Wade, deputy communications director of the Republican National Committee, responded: "Obviously, if we can get men 65 per cent for the President, or 70-30, that's wonderful...

...black women, 5.7...

...The post-Grenada surge in his poll ratings is looking more like a permanent recovery every day...

...As both parties are also aware, there is another avenue to victory: tilting the demographic odds by enlisting new voters sympathetic to their views...

...Few were taken in, for instance, by Reagan's verbal footwork during the pre-Christmas news conference where he "clarified" the views expressed by Edwinezer Meese III on the utility of efforts to measure and combat hunger in the country...