Searching for a Government in Israel

...and so did the establishment of scores of impractical new settlements in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights under pressure from the Tehiya Party...

...Likud will not have the money and Labor further lacks the desire to set up scores of new settlements in the occupied areas...

...The last compounded the dismay with which most Israelis contemplated the election outcome...

...Whoever finally manages to form the next coalition, there will be no real prospect of substantive negotiations with or about the Palestinians in the near future...

...Under Israeli law, President Chaim Herzog does not have to ask the head of the largest party, in this case Labor, to form a government...

...Many Israelis can be heard saying that "the citizen is well off but the country is going bankrupt," yet this is more a slogan than a cry of pain...

...Two fundamental questions threaten to torpedo this otherwise hopeful development: Who would head the government, and what would be its policies...

...he can turn to any member of the Knesset he considers most likely to succeed at the task...

...A broad national coalition, including Likud and Labor, would be one way out of the impasse...

...The July general election resulted not merely in the failure of either o f the country's large political parties to win anything approaching a majority of the Knesset's 120 seats, but also in the splintering of the country's parliamentary spectrum into no fewer than 15 different parties...

...Not until individuals pay the price of the artificial prosperity Begin and company have created, the second theory holds, will they comprehend the extent and implications of the problem facing the economy...

...These ranged from the ultra-Leftist Jewish-Arab Progressive List for Peace to ex-Defense Minister Ezer Weizman's Yahad Party to Meir Kahane's ultra-Rightist Kach Party...

...Thus even if a broad national coalition embracing the main contenders is ultimately patched together, it will probably be quite unstable...

...the Tami Party's demands for excessive welfare payments cost hundreds of millions more...

...In the outgoing Knesset the two big rivals—the ruling Likud bloc and the opposition Labor Alignment—had 48 and 47 seats, respectively...

...Nor are the prospects encouraging if Peres cannot fashionagovernment...

...Small wonder, then, that given the deeply pernicious effects of the existing situation, Finance Ministry officials shudder at the thought of what might happen were nine junior partners to be pressing their separate objectives...

...Pundits will surely be arguing about the roots of Israel's parliamentary fragmentation for some time to come...

...The Alignment and its followers have been talking about a national coalition "headed by Labor as the largest party...

...Likud was so happy to see the Eliahu Salpeter, a regular NL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...The overriding question, of course, is why this is even a remote possibility...

...In these circumstances, tension on the West Bank may increase, and relations with Egypt may go from cool to cooler...

...pre-election polls predicting an Alignment plurality of 10-12 seats proved wrong, it almost forgot that only its rival' s poor performance, not its own success, made the tally seem acceptable...

...Interestingly, neither did the Jewish-Arab Progressive List, but this new party nonetheless managed to elect two Knesset members, evidently at Labor's expense...

...The dispute, though, extends beyond the competing egoisms of the two leaders, Yitzchak Shamir and Shimon Peres, to the sharply different principles that guide Israel's two major political forces...

...The real beneficiaries of this year's vote were a number of small new groups...

...Since its hopes for a big victory did not materialize, it has reconsidered its position...

...It suggests that the economic crisis has so far not been felt by most of the population...

...The Communists, on the other hand, maintained their traditional Arab support and held on to their four seats...

...When Shamir proposed such an arrangement before the election Labor responded without enthusiasm...

...Worst of all, the system created a Leviathan of waste, bureaucracy and vested interests, keeping spending levels high...

...The choices made by Israel's Arab electorate revealed something of a political-nationalistic polarization, too...

...the remaining 25 slots were divided among eight other parties...

...What Likud has in mind is naturally something directed by itself...

...Having done well enough to gain a place in the Knesset, the American-born racist rabbi will now have a public platform and parliamentary immunity as he conducts his campaign to expel all Arabs from Israeli-held territories...

...Likud's coalition with four parties had become so shaky that it was forced to advance the national balloting by a year...

...Shocking as the country's 400 per cent annual inflation rate may be, to the average Israeli it is nothing more than a statistic...

...Labor did not do well among these voters, as it had expected to...

...The effort was considered an essential starting point toward securing power because people here believe in what they call the "dynamics of coalition-making...

...on the other side there are the Sephardim—Jews of Middle Eastern or North African descent, who still regard themselves as something of a disinherited proletariat and vote overwhelmingly for Likud because of its populist slogans and policies...

...In addition, the Shinui Party and the Movement for Citizens' Rights and Peace, two small Labor allies that formerly resisted the idea, have now withdrawn their opposition...

...Yet their loss was not Labor's gain: The Alignment dropped three seats and its allies picked up three...

...five were undecided...

...The religious parties insisted on state funding for hundreds of Orthodox schools, and on the shutdown of El A1 every weekend in observance of the Sabbath, draining tens of millions of dollars...

...One theory starts with the fact that Israel is now demographically divided, virtually down the middle: On one side there are the Ashkenazim—Jews of European origin, already mostly middle class, who usually vote for Labor or for two dovish smaller parties...

...There can be little doubt, meanwhile, about its consequences: political stasis and an inability to undertake painful, desperately necessary economic reforms...

...And today Shamir, who took over the reins from the ailing Begin, would need nine partners should an arrangement with Labor be impossible to achieve...

...Consequently, many observers believe that even if some modus vivendi were achieved, a government of national unity would not be united for long— nor able to accomplish very much while it was...

...Actually, when the final election figures came in, neither side appeared to fully realize the great difficulties of its position...

...Even Mapam, the Alignment's Left-wing Socialist partner, has decided not to hinder exploratory discussions...

...These ethnic tensions are cross-cut by the persistent conflict between secular and religious Israelis, who in addition often fail to agree among themselves and therefore subdivide according to the degree of their Orthodoxy and nationalism...

...Such at angled alliance, besides being quite fragile, would deepen an economic crisis that developed in part precisely because the demands of Likud's associates made it impossible to apply any of the intended—and correct—remedies...

...Although Labor did not manage to win a clear shot at power, Likud nonetheless suffered a major defeat, losing 15 per cent of its seats and its status as the largest single unit in the Knesset...

...Each of the two main political formations initially attempted to persuade the relatively moderate smaller factions not to make deals with the other—not to participate in organizing a "blocking 61...

...The second explanation sounds less scientific but is, I think, closer to the mark...

...by and large the people remain in fairly good shape, thanks to the cost-of-living allowances and to the huge subsidies that make commodities cheaper and insulate voters from unpleasant economic realities...

...Similarly, Likud will not consider territorial concessions and Labor will not have the parliamentary backing required to make them...

...By the lights of this first theory, the election results merely reflect the complex nation that produced them...

...By making deals with four of them, the government of then-Prime Minister Menachem Begin was able to muster 64 votes, or a majority of four...

...A Likud-led coalition, no matter how unwieldy, will therefore continue to be a contingency...

...Four top Israeli writers associated with Labor's dovish wing have called for a national unity government...

...As matters turned out, after extensive consultations with the heads of the political groupings — except for Kahane, whom he refused to dignify by including him in the process—Herzog gave the opening mandate to Labor's Shimon Peres...

...He appeared to have the support of 60 members of the new Parliament, compared with 54 for Likud's Yitzchak Shamir...

...This time Likud has been deprived of seven of its former seats and its four partners of five...