Greece's Hidden Realpolitik

...The parley soon sputtered, then started up again last January...

...Nonetheless, he never fails to couple his acerbity with the reminder that Greece must be careful to guard its precarious security, which, he implies, means staying in nato...

...spare parts were cut for a week, the Greek Air Force couldn't fly...

...Now officials admit that this sort of extensive control is also unrealistic, and the Socialists will probably end up giving the Americans a Lucy Komisar, a free-lance journalist who often writes on European affairs, has recently returned from Greece...

...Greece has not fulfilled the obligations undertaken in the Rogers Agreement...

...Other conflicts simmer as well...

...Opposition leaders like Constantine Mitsotakis have been forced to concede that the Prime Minister is being "realistic" and dealing with nato problems "in a positive way...

...to actively opposing either side's attempt to solve the Aegean dispute militarily...

...Looking out over a recent PASOK rally where placards read, "Out of nato" and "Remove the Bases," a government colleague acknowledged that " Papandreou sometimes forgets to mention this is a long-long-term, not a short-term policy...

...installations to stay where they have been for two decades...

...If no accord can be reached, government members hint at the possibility of adopting a neutralist position similar to Sweden's...

...The second, revealed at intimate meetings with foreign envoys, reflects the logic of realpolitik...

...The Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) platform for the campaign that brought Papandreou to office in October 1981 stated flatly: "Foreign bases have no place in our country...

...On the other hand, it did agree, after prolonged, very public hesitation, to participate in nato naval maneuvers in the northeast Aegean last October—although Athens pulled out of the exercises a month later when the nato command refused to make the island of Limnos a defense "target...

...It is founded on the bitter resentment over Washington's congenial relations with the military rulers a decade ago...

...At a meeting of alliance defense ministers in December 1981, Papandreou blocked the issuance of a communique because it failed to include this clause...

...Many rank and file PASOK supporters are beginning to see the virtues of moderation, too...

...Papandreou's record has likewise belied his rhetoric on the issue of removing American nuclear weapons from Greek soil...

...When the Reagan Administration responded less than forth-rightly, Greek government spokesmen brashly averred that they did not want a superpower to keep watch over their frontiers anyway...

...Papandreou subsequently addressed an open inquiry to nato policy makers, asking whether their decision stemmed from lack of information or political calculations...

...Athens has thus far been allowed to ignore the stipulation that it coordinate naval operations with Turkey, but it would be difficult to deny Ankara the role of patrolling the disputed waters for nato if Greece quit the organization...

...I'm against nato," one voter told me, " but if there was a confrontation with the Americans [to a Greek, the U.S...

...After domestic pressures obliged Prime Minister Constantine Kar-amanlis to withdraw from the nato military command in 1974 because of the fighting on Cyprus, no other country was designated to patrol Greece's part of the Mediterranean...

...The evolution of the Socialists' position is a study of what happens when political creed comes up hard against reality...

...warheads in Turkey and Soviet bloc missiles in Bulgaria both highly unlikely for the time being, this means the Greek arsenal will be maintained...

...and the Atlantic Alliance are frequently synonymous], the next month there would be Turkish ships in the Aegean Sea looking for oil...

...Even though some face-saving device will be required to protect Papandreou from the charge that he settled for less than his rivals would have, the outcome of the negotiations is easy to predict: Economic and military aid will continue to be accepted as recompense for the U.S...

...This explains why after years of railing against Greece's membership in nato and promising, if heever achieved power, to rid the country of American military bases and nuclear launching sites, Socialist Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou will remain in the alliance and allow the U.S...

...bases that his New Democracy Party predecessors had failed to conclude...

...Upon assuming office, Papandreou quickly softened his line, announcing that he would take no action unilaterally...

...He approached Washington instead, asking for assurance that it would honor a letter written in 1976 by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that committed the U.S...

...Wearing two faces has its risks, though...

...looser rein than they enjoyed under the right-of-center New Democrats...

...The necessity of a transitional period was recognized, with the stipulation that during this time the government would make sure the installations were not used "contrary to Greece's interests"—i.e., to aid Turkey with information transmitted through U.S...

...He favored getting rid of the Americans, he reiterated, but it would be foolish to precipitate a confrontation...

...No other policy makes sense in the light of the Cold War and the ongoing conflict with neighboring Turkey...

...military channels, or to help Israel against Athens' Arab friends...

...The practical application of this dictum has so far been erratic...

...With the elimination of U.S...

...Oof course, this is the most reasonable policy...

...As for nato, the PASOK platform argued that Greece's withdrawal from the organization would be a step toward dissolution of the two Cold War blocs...

...With Turkey pressing claims in the Aegean, that would be disastrous...

...Indeed, the document opened the way to a Turkish role there by suggesting that Greece and Turkey plan for a joint air defense of the archipelago, and that naval strategy take into account "the inherent flexibility of naval forces...

...As might be gathered, anti-Americanism still runs deep in this country...

...With the electoral victory, rejection and withdrawal gave way to a policy of holding relations with the alliance "in suspension...

...Currently the Rogers Agreement exists, changing the situation...

...Papandreou has declared that an agreement must be finalized by sometime this spring, and has let it be known through the press that he is asking Washington for a stiff $1 billion annual rent...

...Papandreou has not yet tired of castigating nato for its support of the military junta that ruled Greece from 1967-74, or for allowing Turkey to invade and partition Cyprus in 1974...

...In October 1982, following over a year's hiatus, Papandreou resumed the talks about U.S...

...The Prime Minister does not hesitate to take advantage of the anti-American feeling...

...The maneuver gained him little beyond his allies' annoyance, however, and last year he backed off...

...If his public pose remains radically out of sync with his private demeanor, the Greek Prime Minister may lose his credibility with everyone...

...Maintaining that, "We give no one the right to determine what region of the country we have the responsibility to defend," he pledged to bring up the matter at nato headquarters in Brussels...

...The Rogers Agreement that returned Greece to the nato military command in 1980was firmly rejected, moreover, because it did not clearly recognize Greek hegemony in the Aegean...

...In any event, the bases' future is guaranteed by one simple fact—Washington supplies almost all of this country's arms...

...While the Prime Minister has not abjured the slogan, "No to nuclear arms in Greece," today he links this desired condition to denuclearization of the whole Balkans region...

...had a hand in destabilizing the government of Andreas' father, George Papandreou, the last civilian administration prior to the junta...

...presence, and no meaningful timetable will be established for the departure of the American forces...

...Still, he held to the idea of Greek supervision of the bases, including the right to suspend their activities...

...Another source of tension has been Papandreou's demand—again voiced more unequivocally before the election than since—that nato insure any member, say Greece, against attacks from another, like Turkey...

...Aside from the pro-Soviet Communists, therefore, Papandreou's approach has wide approval...

...Papandreou may continue to grumble at a journalists' luncheon about how the present "colonial" arrangement is an unacceptable limitation on national sovereignty, yet his better sense recognizes the accuracy of the observer who points out in response, "If U.S...

...The sus-picion is strong, too, that the U.S...

...Limnos sits close to the Turkish coast, and Ankara wants it demilitarized...

...At present the Greeks have what they want, control of the Aegean, and they only stand to lose out by renouncing the alliance...