Repositioning in the Middle East

...It has apparently concluded, therefore, that it must contribute to resolving the distracting Israeli-Palestinian standoff...

...That would "sully its hands," it has declared...

...taking a position that abets Moscow's client, Syria, against its own ally, Israel, and that undermines Washington's stated aim of promoting peace in the Middle East...

...The winds of necessity seem to have reached the luxury hotel in Tunis where Yasir Arafat has set up new headquarters, too...

...Yet the King has another, more urgent reason: He realizes that no matter what else Israel gains from the 1982 war, it will certainly not permit the PLO to re-infiltrate southern Lebanon...

...Gem-ayel is being pressed to resist Israeli demands both by the Syrians and by his own Moslem Prime Minister Shafik al Tel Aviv When Ariel Sharon, on a "private visit" to Washington last December, failed to receive a much-expected invitation to meet with U.S...

...Mubarak's efforts to soften the PLO's posture are similarly propelled by more than his obvious interest in seeing his predecessor Anwar Sadat's peace initiative vindicated...

...Far from ironing anything out, Israel and Lebanon were unable to so much as concur on an agenda without the forceful intervention of U. S. special en voy Philip C. Ha-bib...

...The country's newspapers pointed out that in eagerly swallowing Sharon's assertions without verification, the Cabinet seemed to be repeating a mistake it had made frequently during the critical weeks of last summer's war...

...The guerrilla chief, flanked by three members of the PLO Executive Committee, received leaders of the Israeli peace movement there recently, including Sheli Party leader Uri Avnery, retired general Matti Peled and former Finance Ministry Director General Yaakov Arnon...

...In short, as Sharon's aides lost no time in leaking to the press, all substantive issues between the two countries had been essentially settled...

...And it was promptly disowned by the Lebanese delegation when trilateral negotiations between Beirut, Jerusalem and American diploEliahu Salpeter, who regularly reports for The New Leader from Israel, is a correspondent for the daily, Ha'aretz...

...Washington is pumping water from Lebanon to convince him to jump...

...With Jerusalem accelerating the establishment of settlements in the West Bank, there soon might not be much left to negotiate about...

...Israelis suspect that this stance, besides reflecting a shift back to the pro-Arab consensus that prevailed in the State Department before Alexander M. Haig Jr...

...More than five months have passed, they note, since Ronald Reagan announced his proposal for a Jordanian-linked Palestinian entity in the Israeli-occupied West Bank...

...The Hashemite Monarch spent most of January jetting from one Arab nation to the next...

...Once again events gave the lie to Sharon's claim...

...Baghdad's anti-Israel rhetoric has traditionally been the most virulent this side of Libyan Colonel Muammar Qad-dafi...

...This was Arafat's first public meeting with Israeli Zionists (as opposed to Communists and other splinter group adherents), and it suggested his recognition that after being driven out of Lebanon he no longer has a military option—only, maybe, a political one...

...Unlike the four other countries that invaded the nascent Israel in 1948—Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt—Iraq has never signed an armistice to formally end the state of belligerency...

...Ostensibly, he was briefing his fellow rulers on his visits to Washington, Tokyo and several Western European capitals as a member of the Arab League delegation dispatched to explain the decisions of last September's Arab Summit in Fez, Morocco...

...Hence its wish to build more West Bank settlements before time runs out and new lines are drawn...

...More immediately Cairo appears concerned that the present freeze in Israeli-Egyptian relations could permanently endanger the formal diplomatic ties established between the two countries...

...Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger, he returned home in a huff and rushed off to Beirut for some secret talks...

...Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak recently presented this same argument to Yasir Arafat, hoping to persuade the PLO leader to recognize Israel unilaterally...

...He is also hoping that America's oft-proclaimed impatience to see foreign forces withdrawn from Lebanon will make it easier for him to withstand Israel's pressure to make peace—and give in to Syria's insistence not to...

...Many here are convinced, too, that Washington is currently trying to prove to Arab leaders, particularly Hussein, that it is willing and able to twist Israel's arm when necessary...

...can be expected to exert on Jerusalem in the future...

...Wazzan, a supporter of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO...

...It is indeed peculiar to see the U.S...

...But Jordan, Egypt and other "pro-Western" Arab states insist that they can enter no negotiations on the territory's future while Israeli troops remain in Lebanon...

...Israel, as it has consistently cautioned, would retaliate, and western Jordan would become a battle zone...

...Under criticism from the media and the more audacious of his ministerial colleagues, Sharon backtracked, admitting his document outlined "general understandings" that remained to be finalized and sketched in...

...One reason for Hussein's interest in sitting down with Israel—all the risks notwithstanding—is readily evident...

...He added, though, that the Lebanese had assented to top level private talks for ironing out any snags that might arise in the official public forum...

...Any moderation of the Arab world's hostility toward Israel will mean a tapering off in the condemnation of Egypt for having signed a treaty with the "Zionists...

...The Begin government, meanwhile, probably senses that sooner or later it may after all be confronted with an offer to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict that it will not be able to refuse...

...This gesture reflects no new-found love for the Jewish State...

...Sharon's exaggerations, on the other hand, should not obscure the fact that Lebanon has substantially retreated from the limited accommodation it seemed willing to offer earlier...

...Sharon's accord proved to be an unsigned draft agenda for the talks...

...In articles responding to hawks who would welcome such a development, Egyptian newspapers have unhesitatingly expressed the fear that it "would serve as an excuse for the Begin government to start hostilities against the Arabs...

...It concerned "normalization of relations"— including open borders, trade, tourism, the exchange of diplomatic representatives—and "special security arrangements" in southern Lebanon, specifically demilitarization of the area plus recognition of Major Sa'ad Had-dad's Israeli-trained Free Lebanese Forces as a legitimate local power...

...Consequently, despite the PLO's failure to even tacitly give Jordan's King Hussein the right to bargain on its behalf, Washington is anxious to get the Lebanese impasse resolved before the opportunity to make progress on what it sees as the "central issue" in the Middle East is lost...

...Unless the Palestinians can be convinced they have something to gain from West Bank talks, they are likely to eventually use Jordan as a springboard for new terrorist operations...

...It soon became apparent that the journalists were correct...

...Iraq badly needs Egyptian and Jordanian help in its ongoing war with Iran, and would like all Arab diplomatic and financial efforts concentrated on its conflict in the Persian Gulf...

...If Hussein's and Mubarak's professions of moderation might have been expected, the new soft line hinted at by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has startled most observers...

...took charge in 1981, is motivated by the Administration's long-term objectives in the region...

...The whittling down of Israeli demands in Lebanon has become a test of how much leverage the U.S...

...As an Israeli state radio commentator put it: "Hussein wants to see whether there is water in the pool before he dives in...

...These were in turn hastily concluded, and the former Israeli Defense Minister dashed back to Jerusalem to tell the Cabinet he had achieved a "breakthrough" in discussions with associates of Lebanese President Amin Gemayel...

...While government officials spent the next few days bragging about how Sharon had upstaged the Americans, who were obstructing Israel's peacemaking, reporters remained skeptical...

...He read aloud from a "written agreement...

...The King, in addition to his difficulties in obtaining the PLO's proxy, is doubly reluctant to involve himself in West Bank talks because he fears Israel will not concede anything...

...Twice in the past few months, however, top Iraqi leaders have publicly indicated the possibility of recognizing not only Israel's right to exist but its security requirements as well...

...At the same time, he was checking out his prospects for support if he takes the leap on the Reagan Plan...