Democracy's Chances in Argentina
KAUFMAN, ROBERT R.
AS ALFONSIN TAKES CVER Democracy's Chances in Argentina BY ROBERT R. KAUFMAN Radical Crvic Union candidate Raul Alfonsin's victory over the Peronist Party's Italo Lu-der in Argentina's...
...To survive, Alfonsin must ultimately find a way to breathe life into his Radical Civic Union...
...But it remains to be seen if Al-fonsin and other civilian politicians can fashion a humane, effective democratic alternative...
...Each of those efforts was undermined by escalating polarization between the military and Peronist adversaries, and eventually ended in a military coup...
...4. Building organized support...
...In the manner of other Latin Americans, Argentines are wont to refer to military men as gorilas-great beasts that often devour the civilians who come knocking at the barracks door, and sometimes break out on their own to wreak havoc...
...At the same time, there definitely are opportunities for the Radical Party to develop a significant presence on its historic terrain-In the professional groups, the universities, and similar traditionally middle-class segments of society...
...Besides criminal trials, reform could be advanced through wholesale retirements, budget and personnel reductions, and thesystematic promotion of constitutionalist officers...
...Robert R. Kaufman, a new contributor to the NL, is Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University...
...The "outsider" background, undoubtedly helpful in establishing his credibility as a conciliator and honest broker, may nevertheless prove fatal unless he consolidates his support within the framework of a party organization...
...Limited avenues exist for the Radicals in the union movement, for instance, because care has to be taken not to torpedo the possibility of good working relations with Peronists at other levels...
...Both are inevitable parties to the restructuring of the external debt that must take place...
...Sacrifices sought through continuing democratic processes of persuasion could also turn out to be more acceptable than those imposed from above by force...
...That will depend on the additional leverage he can muster in confronting four critical concerns...
...This, too...
...Furthermore, everymajor organized "veto group" of Argentine society is implicated in, and has been weakened by, the national crisis...
...The issue, then, is whether there are any chances at all for institutionalizing democracyin Argentina-and if so, where those chances lie...
...Argentina, to put the matter plainly, is bankrupt-politically as well as economically...
...This touches the lives of hundreds of thousands of citizens, not only the relatives and friends of the 6,000 persons who were "unofficially" kidnapped and murdered in the 1970s "war against subversion...
...Imposition has been tried many times in Argentina, persuasion not at all on a sustained basis...
...The departing military-authoritarian regime, in power since 1976, has made at least onepositivecontribution in this regard: Its brutality and astonishing ineptitude have shattered any lingering illusions about the superiority of military dictatorships...
...and it is in the midst of its worst economic crisis since the 1930s, including a $40 billion debt and a 1,000 per cent inflation...
...Unlike Brazil, where the repression was never so extensive, in Argentina the matter of accountability cannot be swept under the rug by the military's recent self-declared amnesty, which was rightly repudiated by Alfonsin...
...At the very least, the present situation holds out the possibility of re-examining and changing old, destructive ways of doing political business?thus creating some space for leaders to move toward newer, more positive kinds of sociopolitical alignments...
...Indeed, given their core support from 30-40 per cent of the voters, and their control of powerful unions, the Peronists must be integrated into any truly stable democratic system, either as a loyal opposition or as a component of the government itself...
...suggests that the opportunity may beat hand for the beast to be disciplined and reduced in size...
...It has been left in shambles by the retiring government...
...In the Congress, the President-elect has a small majority in the Chamber of Deputies that could serve as the begin-ningsof a legislative base...
...Such negotiations, moreover, would offer the Reagan Administration an excellent opportunity to demonstrate that it actually does have some commitment to democracy in Latin America...
...Yet the very magnitude of the current crisis could produce a happier ending...
...Although Radical presidents were elected in the 1950s and 1960s (in contests where the Peronists were excluded), the party as a whole has declined steadily since the heyday of its power in the 1920s...
...Italo Luder and his closest supporters now have the problem of deflecting in-traparty recriminations for their unexpected defeat...
...His political assets alone, though, are not sufficient to insure Al-fonsin's succeeding at the task of rebuilding Argentina...
...But the Radicals are unlikely to dominate the Senate -whose representatives are now being elected by provincial assemblies-Suggesting the need for a broader coalition, possibly organized in collaboration with Peronist elements...
...Some places in the world, to be sure, may be in worse shape -lebanon, for example, or Northern Ireland...
...Alfonsin, now scheduled to assume office in December, faces problems far more overwhelming than his predecessors...
...These people will have to be courted assiduously by the Alfonsin government...
...The Peronist movement, during its last moment of power from 1973-76, exposed the presence in its midst of Right-wing thugs and Left-wing terrorists, along with genuine democrats like Luder...
...He was a leader of a minority faction of the middle-class Radical Party, he was one of the few prominent civilians who opposed the 1976 coup, and he played a key role in the human rights struggles of the late 1970s...
...2. Integrating the Peronists...
...Alfonsin, by contrast, comes to power with "clean hands...
...AS ALFONSIN TAKES CVER Democracy's Chances in Argentina BY ROBERT R. KAUFMAN Radical Crvic Union candidate Raul Alfonsin's victory over the Peronist Party's Italo Lu-der in Argentina's presidential election last October 30 once again raises the question of whether there is a way out of the bitter antagonisms that have paralyzed that country for so long...
...Overall, as Raul Alfonsin prepares for his inauguration, the challenge he faces in his quest to consolidate Argentine democracy remind one of the well-known children's tale where the young knight must slay a series of dragons and witches in order to marry the beautiful princess...
...Here, though, Alfonsin may be able to head off angry discontent by capitalizing on approval gained in noneconomic actions (e.g., the taming of the military...
...it has been ripped apart by official violence and terrorism...
...It would be naive to say that the chances for democracy are far brighter in the light of the election...
...Taking the negative aspects of thesituation into account, one can point to a few glimmers of hope...
...It is equally important to the innumerable others (and their families and friends) who were imprisoned officially, sometimes tortured, sent into exile, or dismissed from their jobs...
...Yet they and other democratic Peronists share with Alfonsin a common interest in stabilizing Argentina and establishing free elections as a fundamental feature of the political process...
...On the other hand, with the Armed Forces more discredited and demoralized than at any previous time in Argentine history, the issue of the desaparecidos (together with the Malvinas debacle) may enable civilian democrats to finally gain control of that frequently antidemocratic element...
...Like it or not, the new government will have to share its economic policy-making powers with private bankers in the industrialized world and the International Monetary Fund...
...The goal has proven to be elusive on no less than three occasions in the years following populist dictator Juan Per-on's 1955 ouster from office: in the late 1950s and in the middle 1960s under Radical Party Presidents, and in the early 1970s under a returned Peron and his wife Isabela...
...Competing Peronist factions, for example, will certainly be tempted to outbid each other in their opposition to Alfonsin...
...Among the electorate, presidential authority can be used to help strengthen the party, but that will not be easy...
...Alfonsin, in fact, comes to office from well outside the mainstream of Argentine political life, as a minority leader of a minority party...
...it has been humiliated by defeat in the Malvinas adventure...
...Still, as I have noted, there are many genuine democrats in the movement...
...Unfortunately, a tough investigation of the still-powerful Armed Forces also runs the risk of another coup d'etat, especially since hundreds of "ordinary" officers, as well as those attached to the more specialized intelligence units, were involved in the dirty work...
...3. Bankers and the debt...
...The profound internal divisions within Peronism-divisions that contributed to Alfonsin's victory-are serious obstacles to this process...
...Alfonsin's principal point of leverage in dealing with the bankers is his government's democratic accountability to an electorate that has already borne much of the burden of previous disastrous pro-business policies, and today is being asked to pay for those mistakes...
...But Argentina, despite a modern social structure, large middle class and partially industrialized economy, ranks high on the list of potential political basket cases...
...Its civilian economic advisers-the "best and brightest" of the country's local and international business community-produced the orthodox policies that contributed to the economic mess...
...Of course, no amount of generosity can avoid the necessity for appreciable material sacrifice on the part of the population if Argentina is ever to climb out of its economic hole...
...Small improvements could provide the President-elect with considerable political support...
...This largely explains his becoming the first man ever to defeat the Peronists in a free election...
...To begin with, conditions are so bad that the people do not expect much...
...And Peronist union bosses-particularly those who might have collaborated in the military's anti-Leftist campaigns-could well join forces with their old military adversaries in an attempt to block democratic inroads intothe labor groups they rule...
...The military has been discredited by its repressive arrogance and incompetence...
...Any government that cannot find a way to identify and punish the guilty risks a crippling withdrawal of popular support...
...Whatever the case, however, Per-onism is a force that will have to be reckoned with for a long time...
...It has no "political project" of reconstruction or development...
...1. Military accountability for the "disappearances...
...Even though Argentine politics does occasionally display a dreamlike quality, the dragons and witches typically have prevailed...
...One of the great unanswered questions to emerge from the October election is whether the turbulent and fragmented Peronists have permanently lost their electoral hegemony, or whether they have merely suffered a temporary defeat...
...In view of the economic failures of the past authoritarian regime, it is not too much to hope that the bankers may actually decide it is in their long-term interest to negotiate with Alfonsin on generous terms...
Vol. 66 • November 1983 • No. 21
