Canada's Charismatic Conservative

...The Tories' extreme confidence-notwithstanding the still fresh memory of the ill-fated Conservative government of Joe Clark in 1979-80-stems principally from the precipitous decline over the past three years in the fortunes of the Liberals and their Prime Minister Sexagenarian Pierre Elliot Trudeau is no longer providing the stirring leadership that was the trademark of his halcyon days His Administration appears tired, with each Cabinet shuffle rearranging the same faces...

...Although Mulroney has been in politics for years, he had never won an elective office prior to smashing his opponent in a Nova Scotia parliamentary by-election on August 29 He is a lawyer by profession, has worked in the labor field, and most recently served as president of the Iron Ore Corporation His first love, however, is clearly the public arena...

...In sum, a Mulroney government, if less radically Right-leaning than the Reagan Administration, would be decidedly conservative-focusing on what's good for business rather than on the social programs that have been the priority of the Liberals And barring the proverbial unexpected, it looks like the Canadians w ill give the new comer a chance For even it Trudeau is replaced as leader, the odds arc against the Liberals gaining back enough ground in the next IS months to make the election close, much less to win...

...The Liberals seem unable to formulate any new policy initiatives, and two of their old ones-controls on foreign investment and a national energy program-have encountered mounting criticism The public's patience has worn thin in the face of the country's persistent economic problems Unemployment and inflation are running higher than in the United States by about 2 5 and 3 1 per cent, respectively, and the movement toward recovery has been slower Many Canadians, recalling that the Clark government was brought down over a proposed 18-cent-a-gallon gasoline tax, reflect that such a sum hardly seems relevant in the light of subsequent price hikes under the Liberals...

...Open sniping at the party leader used to be a Conservative specialty, and it played a large role in the final deposition of Clark Never forgiven for botching the Tories' chance to rule, he was constantly subject to formal and informal criticism from the ranks Last winter, the Conservatives held another of their leadership review sessions in connection with the party congress Approximately two-thirds of the delegates reaffirmed their support for Clark, the rest registered a preference for a leadership convention Clark could have let the matter stand there and retained his post Instead he decided to gamble on the convention, hoping that it would demonstrate the weakness of his detractors and silence them once and for all He announced that less than a 70 per cent vote in his favor was an insufficient display of confidence, resigned, and then declared himself a candidate for the job he had just vacated...

...So far Mulroney has conducted himself smoothly and with growing assurance He ran a smart race for the leadership, he has assumed firm control of the party structure, and his campaign for the seat in Commons was impressively vigorous Despite the fact that the district had been held by a fellow Conservative who resigned to make way for his new chief, Mulroney's margin of victory exceeded all expectations Perhaps more important, in another by-election held the same day in British Columbia the Tones handily captured a scat from the socialist New Democratic Party, and the turnaround was perceived as a dramatic demonstration of the power of Mulroney's coattails Now the young lawyer must show his skill on the floor of the Lower House of Parliament during the session that has just begun The media coverage afforded legislative debates here offers Mulroney an opportunity to meet the major criticism he encountered on the campaign trail this summer that he has been too vague about the issues of paramount concern to many people Especially on such matters as how he would combat unemployment and inflation, he has not offered any specifics...

...In fact, beyond a firm free enterprise stand that is reflected in his close ties with the business community, Mulroney has to date only outlined his approach in broad strokes To a country increasingly inclined to believe that a badly managed public sector is inevitable, he has promised a more efficient bureaucracy He would seek to spur the economy through productivity incentives and an industrial policy He favors permitting domestic oil prices to rise to the world level, ending Canada's years of insulation from external conditions The Liberals' energy program, stressing Canadian ownership of suppliers, would probably be scrapped, but the slow movement toward freer trade with the United States would not be stepped up and might well be arrested for the intermediate term As for his position on federalism, the new Tory chief apparently appreciates a strong center and is unalterably opposed to the secessionist aspirations of the men who rule his home province...

...The bold tactic almost worked Thiough the spring, Clark campaigned valiantly across the country The initial balloting at the June convention was close enough to make the sessions dramatic and demand a number of strategic decisions from the candidates But it soon became apparent that Clark had peaked early As the secondary contenders withdrew, most of their support flowed to Mulroney The two men finally went head to head on the fourth ballot, and the challenger, who had lost to Clark in 1976 when both were still in their 30s, prevailed...

...Meanwhile, since the leader's role is strongly emphasized in Canada, the Prime Minister has been the focus of the discontent in his own party It is far from rare these days for Liberal MPs to hint openly at the desirability, or even the necessity, of his retirement But no established mechanism exists for forcing him out, so he will depart when he chooses According to current speculation, that will be within six months Yet no one is in a position to say for certain besides Trudeau, and he isn't talking Moreover, he is known to be fond of surprises, and Canadians have grown wary about predicting his political demise Commentators who wrote him off after the 1979 election looked pretty silly when he returned to power at the head of a majority government nine months later...

...Most of the provincial governments are already in the Tories' hands The Liberals' ability to maintain control in Ottawa, though, has up to now masked their need to revitalize themselves nationwide A massive electoral defeat at the federal level would presumably supply the impetus for overall reorganization in a party that has demonstrated remarkable resiliency over a long period...

...Mulroney possesses the characteristics that campaign managers are perpetually seeking a handsome face, an affable personality, a forceful delivery, an attractive family, and, at 44, relative youthfulness In addition, though he is not of French origin, he is a bilingual native of Quebec The last is a critical asset For if the Tories, whose strength is in the English-speaking territories, were able to break the Liberals' traditional stranglehold on the province that has roughly one quarter of the country's population, they might well dominate the Canadian political scene for the next generation Surely, few delegates at the June convention failed to consider that with Clark at the Conservative helm, Trudeau's party had maintained control of all except one of Quebec's 75 seats in Commons...

...The Tories have not achieved their new popularity by persuading the electorate that they possess the answers to the nation's ills Rather, most people simply feel it is time for a change Thus the Liberals, who have dominated Canadian politics for the greater part of this century, find themselves in a situation where the polls indicate that an election held tomorrow would return a quite substantial Conservative majority to Parliament...

...SHADES OF TRUDEAUMANIA Canada's Charismatic Conservative BY Harold M Waller Montreal BRIAN MULRONEY'S emergence at the head of Canada's Progressive Conservative Party is generating the kind of political excitement that has not been seen here since Trudeaumania swept the nation 15 years ago Mulroney's very positive image among the voters makes him a potentially formidable Parliamentary Leader of the Opposition, even though he took a seat in the House of Commons for the first time on September 12 And both his party and the pundits are convinced he will become the next Prime Minister, the only question being when No election is expected before the spring of 1984, and legally the ruling Liberal Party could hang on until the early months of '85...

...Harold M Waller, a frequent contributor, is Associate Professor of Political Science at McGill University...