Italy's Summer Surprise

...All of us, of course, were wrong The results of the June election were a blockbuster The Christian Democrats, who were supposed to coast along without undue concern, suffered a stunning defeat, a veritable landslide of disaffection As a consequence the PCI, which received credit for the DC setback (God knows why), gained in stature politically despite minor losses at the polls-from 30 4 per cent of the vote for the 630-member Chamber of Deputies in 1979 to 29 9 per cent now The once proud majority party, for two decades the winner of between 38-39 per cent of the vote, plummeted to an all-time low of 32 9 per cent This means the DC slid to only three points above the Communists...

...The theory that the Christian Democratic commitment to a more stringent fiscal policy and tighter control of Social Security benefits made the party unpopular with labor unions has some validity Still, the DC lost to the Center and Right-of-Center, not to the Left And former Prime Minister Giovanni Spadolini, whose Republicans scored the largest relative advances (from 3 per cent to 5 1 per cent), is the arch supporter of anti-inflationary measures, including the curbing of public spending...

...While Craxi will be a hard bargainer because he wants to appease the PSI's pro-Communist left wing, the Christian Democratic attitude is hard to predict After the electoral reverse, the party may seek to refurbish its image by assuming a tough stance On the other hand, there are influential voices in the DC recommending moderation and good will, particularly since it is hardly in a position of strength...

...Regrettably, various sources note, the campaign was such a slugfest between the Christian Democrats and Socialists that a great sense of responsibility will be needed to heal the wounds within a reasonable time And time is the problem The nation's economy is in deep trouble Inflation continues to run at 16 5 per cent, unemployment is at 9 per cent and rising Thanks to the basic differences between the DC and the PSI, Italy's past governments have not resorted to genuine austerity The real belt-tightening that has so far been avoided-including the reform of an indexing system that allows wages to rise faster than the cost of living-is an immediate and vital necessity...

...As I write, restless and ambitious PSI leader Bettino Craxi, who precipitated the election by bringing down the government headed by DC Prime Minister Amintore Fanfani, has been asked by President Pertini to try to form a Cabinet Whether or not he succeeds in becoming Italy's first Socialist Prime Minister, he remains a potent power-broker, determined to profit from the disarray in DC ranks and to resist Communist pressure for a Leftist alliance (which, incidentally, could not achieve a working majority...

...As the new Parliament convenes, though, there is no evidence to prompt action on the way Indeed, politique d' abord (politics above all), the attitude that characterized France's Third Republic, is an appropriate motto for Italy in 1983...

...Probably the most cogent single interpretation of the unexpected election outcome has been put forward by the Economist This cites the Christian Democrats' success in banishing the Communists to the margins of the political debate as the ironic cause of the ruling party's setback For through the decades the DCs strongest asset was the country's overriding fear of Communism coupled with the conviction that, whatever their shortcomings, the Christian Democrats were the necessary bulwark against a pro-Soviet PCI After the PCI's break with Moscow and the Socialist rejection of a united Leftist front, that argument lost part of its strength A considerable percentage of the electorate therefore went back to supporting the smaller parties of their instinctive choice In 1979, as bluntly recommended by Milan's conservative daily / Giornale, many Italians still held their noses and voted DC By last June 26 they appear to have decided that, after all, the Communist Hannibal is no longer at the gate and there is no danger in voting one's preference...

...Regardless of what prompted the switch, its possible long- and short-range effects are cause for concern Although the Communists did fail to overtake the Christian Democrats, they may do so the next time simply by holding their own if the DC downward trend is not checked And the defeat of the majority could have lasting psychological repercussions among the electorate Voting DC may no longer be viewed as backing the winner Overly pessimist inferences are undoubtedly premature, but the blow dealt the DC is too sharp to be shrugged off as a transitory episode...

...Some foreign observers have ventured the opinion that the prospect of American cruise missiles being based in Sicily injured the Christian Democrats This was primarily a local issue, however, not a major national one, otherwise the Communists who oppose the weapons would have drawn a sizeable advantage from their stand Furthermore, the three small parties that benefited from the DC losses-the centrist Republicans, the Liberals and the neo-Fascist Italian Social Movement-are firm supporters of nato and its policies...

...The extent of the DC losses is illustrated by the fact that the party suffered in every region of the country there is hardly a big Italian city today, especially in the North, where it remains the largest political force even in the ultra-Catholic Veneto region and the last redoubts of Brescia...

...ELECTION FALLOUT Italy's Summer Surprise BY SILVIO F SENIGALLIA Rome IT WAS business as usual at the Foreign Press Association headquarters here toward the end of last month Missing were the throngs of special correspondents from around the world who normally crowd the association's telephone booths and bar at election time The widespread feeling was that Italy's June 26-27 national parliamentary balloting would be another dull, time-wasting exercise and did not warrant a trip to this sundrenched capital in early summer...

...Postelection analyses have offered a number of explanations for the DC decline Although none is wholly convincing, each contains a kernel of truth...

...Bergamo and I ucca, they lost their absolute majorities...

...Silvio F Senigallia regularly reports for The New Leader from Italy...

...Many commentators have blamed the DCs poor performance on a widespread protest vote Complacency, passivity and a string of scandals, they suggest, prompted fed-up citizens to shift their allegiance To be sure, the party that has had the upper hand since the late Alcide De Gaspari became Prime Minister in 1945 is guilty of all the usual mistakes that come from too long a tenure If this is what motivated the voters, though, similar discontent should have in some measure punished the Socialists, who have been part of the government since 1963 Moreover, several PSI officeholders in Turin and Savona (President of the Republic Sandro Pertini's hometown) were arrested immediately before and during the campaign on charges of corruption These scandals should have had no less a negative impact on the PSI image than the DC connection with the Mafia and Camorra, yet the Socialists achieved a modest advance-from 9 8 to 11 4 per cent of the vote...

...Indeed, every knowledgeable observer predicted that the voting, deemed unnecessary by most Italian politicians and citizens, would have little impact on the lineup of the parties The headline on an International Herald Tribune dispatch from Rome read, few changes foreseen as italians go to the polls An Associated Press story declared that "the Christian Democratic Party (DC) is certain to beat both Communist and Socialist challengers " Paris' Le Monde was mostly concerned with the chances of its beloved Socialists (PSI) to inch ahead As for myself, I was willing to bet that under the dynamic leadership of their new Secretary, Ciriaco DeMita, the DCs would hold their own He was equally convinced that the Communist Party (PCI), more distant than ever from a government role and viewed with suspicion by the far Left splinter groups, would witness a further erosion of its standing...

...In the short term, the damage done by the election lies in its additional fragmentation of the political scene, thus hurting Italy's governability From the political and numerical points of view there is only one possible government combination an uneasy coalition of Christian Democrats and Socialists, supported by any two or all three of the minor centrist parties Yet this very combination, marked by constant, bitter infighting between the DC and the PSI, was responsible for four government crises in as many years...