Israel's Double Trap

...As for the West Bank, Arafat seems for the time being to enjoy the unflinching allegiance of the large majority of pro-PLO Arabs there, though naturally his prestige would be greatly eroded by a clear defeat at the hands of the dissidents in Lebanon Meanwhile, two other developments are changing the political situation One is Defense Minister Moshe Arens' new approach to undercutting the PLO's popularity The other (which threatens to undermine the first) is the upsurge of zealotry among radical nationalist-religious Jewish settlers sparked by the murder early this month of rabbinical student Aharon Gross in broad daylight in the Hebron vegetable market...

...In fact, few Israelis of any political leaning would shed many tears about Arafat's ouster Most people here feel that PLO chiefs political and strategic mistakes in Lebanon-the alleged source of the mutineers' anger-reflected the same organic defects and limitations in his character that prompted his subsequent refusal to have Jordan's King Hussein represent the PLO in negotiations on the Reagan peace plan and/or some implementation of the Camp David provisions for West Bank autonomy Whether Arafat is more or less "moderate" than his opponents m the PLO becomes largely irrelevant in the light of his relative ineffectiveness as a leader Assuming that he were a genuine seeker of compromise (and the average Israeli does not believe he is), he would nonetheless lack the steadfastness and authority to bring the guerilla confederation into any sort of agreement that would be acceptable to Israel...

...But the most distressing collision between the realities his predecessor created in the West Bank and Moshe Arens' policies resulted from a new insistence on the rule of law For the heaviest resistance to the Defense Minister's stand has come from Jews, not Arabs...

...Eliahu Saipftfr, aregular NL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...

...The military authorities responded by dismissing Natche-charging him, among others, with responsibility for producing leaflets advocating anti-Israeli violence that were run off on municipal mimeograph machines This was probably the mildest step Arens could have taken under the circumstances but it has created a dilemma for the Defense Minister, who in principle supports the restoration of Hebron's Jewish community...

...The mayor's post has been taken over by an official of Israel's West Bank administration It would appear he has the right to withdraw Natche's appeal to the Supreme Court, since it was submitted in the name of the municipality of Hebron Yet even if the Court agreed the maneuver was legal in the formal sense, it would violate the spirit of legality championed by Arens It would also complicate the already difficult task of finding respectable Arab leaders who might help West Bank Palestinians and the Israelis alike capitalize on the troubles of the PLO in Lebanon...

...Although the areas where most of the attacks on IDF personnel have been occurring will remain behind Israeli lines, experts believe that with a much smaller theater to patrol, the Army will be in a far better position to prevent infiltration In addition, proponents of what is euphemistically called "redeployment" claim it will send the southern Lebanese population a clear signal that Israel is ready to maintain its new positions for a long time Such a commitment, experience in other places has shown, works wonders in persuading the locals to cooperate with the police or Army against the terrorists, rather than vice versa...

...Instead, Syria has sponsored a full-scale rebellion in the PLO ranks This has focused attention in Jerusalem on two crucial questions the import of the move for Damascus' strategy in Lebanon, and for the longer-term future of the occupied West Bank...

...Until shortly before his forced resignation, former Defense Minister Ariel Sharon pursued the tactic of giving full support to the "Village Leagues," a movement of conservative, rural West Bank Arabs claiming to offer Palestinians an alternative to both the PLO and Hussein The extent of the Leagues' popular following is a matter of dispute and during the past year, to widen their appeal, they have begun to demand an end to further Jewish settlement as well as the ultimate elimination of any Israeli presence in the occupied territories The military and civilian administrators under Arens have therefore been de-emphasizing Sharon's proteges and renewing contact with pro-Hussein elements and even with Arab nationalists who are not clearly in the PLO camp...

...Soon, the squatters from Qiryat Arba began harassing their Arab neighbors to make them move, or provoking incidents that would eventually lead to the Palestinians' eviction Last winter Hebron Mayor Mustapha Natche took action to stem the tide Suspecting that an order to demolish several buildings in the disputed section was a pretext for handing over the sites to Jews, he obtained an interim injunction from the Supreme Court delaying the wrecking Tensions mounted through the spring as the Jewish settlers, angered by a growing number of stone-throwing incidents involving local Arabs, furiously attacked Arens' "kid-glove policies " Young Gross' fatal stabbing on July 7 brought the clamor for "strong action" to a crescendo...

...The conflict has deep historical roots In 1929, one of the worst pogroms ever perpetrated in Palestine took place at Hebron Some 300 Jews were killed and the rest of the ancient city's Jewish population was expelled After the Six Day War, nationalist-religious extremists commenced agitation for the re-establishment of the plundered Jewish quarter Aware of the explosive potential of such an undertaking, the former Labor government sought to achieve a compromise by founding the settlement of Qiryat Arba on the outskirts of the town Nevertheless, activists gradually took over several empty houses inside Hebron itself, an expansion that the Labor government unwillingly tolerated and Menachem Begin's ruling Likud bloc then tacitly encouraged...

...All the same, once Secretary of State George P Shultz failed to convince President Hafez al-Assad of Svria to withdraw his forces from northern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in the southeast, there was little doubt that Israel would sooner or later go ahead with the redeployment The IDF will hold its line in the Bekaa, less than 20 miles from Damascus, the uncomfortable proximity obviously represents the most effective, or perhaps the only, inducement for Syria to eventually pull out...

...Of course, the implication of a protracted Israeli stay is one of the main reasons for Washington's singular lack of enthusiasm about the plan Possibly more upsetting to the White House is the thought that when Israel evacuates the Shut Mountains, the U S might be obliged to sent in a new detachment of Marines to keep the peace in this region where Christian and Druze militias continue to wage their generations-old war-within-a-war...

...At first glance, the answer to the initial question does not seem very encouraging Since the PLO rebels, left on their own, would quickly be crushed by fighters who have remained loyal to Chairman Yasir Arafat, it appears unlikely that Damascus would leave them unprotected A Syrian withdrawal, moreover, could enable the Lebanese government to join with other Arab states in successfully pressuring the PLO to remove most of its men from Lebanon and resettle them in countries hostile to the Assad regime Still, the picture may not be totally discouraging For if the anti-Arafat forces win an all-out victory, putting the PLO firmly under Assad's control, the Syrian President might decide he could afford to talk to the U S and Israel...

...Assad told Shultz he would "never" accept the Israel-Lebanon agreement requiring the simultaneous withdrawal of Israeli, Syrian and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) troops, because that would allow Israel to "benefit from its aggression' and would put the Jewish State's presence in Lebanon on an equal footing with Syria's seven-year occupation The latter concern is the critical one Damascus has always asserted its right to at least hegemony over a large slice of Lebanon And while it entered the country in 1976 at the behest of then President Suleiman Franjieh, it has show n no inclination to bow to current President Amin Gemayel's desire that it end its involvement The Arab League's refusal last year to renew the Syrian "peacekeeping" mandate in the domain of us western neighbor was similarly ignored...

...LEBANON AND THE WEST BANK Israel's Double Trap BY ELIAHU SALPETER Tel Aviv THE TRUCK was less than a mile from the crossroad when a bomb in a ditch exploded The vehicle was thrown some 20 yards and burst into flames Two soldiers died instantly, everyone else aboard was wounded The incident, bringing to 505 the number of Israelis killed in Lebanon since the war began over a year ago, intensified the popular demand for a withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from part of the territory it now holds in that country And on July 20, after Prime Minister Mcnachem Begin cancelled a scheduled visit with President Reagan in Washington, the Cabinet authorized the pullback...