Warsaw's Wary Welcome for John Paul

...IN A TIME OF UNCERTAINTY Warsaw's Wary Welcome for John Paul BY CASIMIR GARNYSZ As Poland's Communist regime prepared for Pope John Paul II's week-long visit starting June 16, it was clear that their self-confidence had considerably declined from a peak reached several months earlier Last March Prime Minister Wojciech Jaruzelski and his associates were telling both themselves and the Polish population that active resistance to the government had all but ceased Their sense of security was such that they set May 8-10 as a date for the first national convention of their Patriotic Front of National Renewal (pron), a favorite butt of popular humor that has been widely boycotted since its formation about a year and a half ago When at the end of March the underground leaders of the outlawed free trade union Solidarity appealed to the public to take part in a new round of protests on May 1 and 3, the regime was certain these would be no more difficult to prevent than the demonstrations called by Solidarity for November 10, 1982 As the time drew closer, though, the assurance seemed to wane, and the warnings against participation in "pub-he disturbances" grew shrill With less than a week to go before May Day, which happened to fall on a Sunday, the government asked the Church to change the hours of services so as to make it difficult for worshippers to attend the Solidarity actions The Episcopate refused And, in fact, Solidarity did emerge with a victory on the "workers'" holiday, even if its gatherings were eventually dispersed by tear gas and water cannons In dozens of cities, thousands of Poles from all walks of life joined in the streets and churches to demand the restoration of independent unions, the end of military government and the liberation of political prisoners These demonstrations stood in vivid contrast to the official May Day festivities, where large but dispirited throngs paraded by order past stands filled with deadpan apparatchiks The protests on May 3-a traditional Polish national holiday-were successful, too, albeit on a smaller scale Taken together, the number, size and determination of the rallies apparently surprised the government (So, evidently, did the fiasco that materialized at the pron convention the following week ) Jaruzelski reacted immediately with a new wave of violent police repression On the evening of May 3, a gang of security police agents and thugs broke into the Warsaw Church of St Martin-the headquarters for efforts to assist political internees and their families-smashed furniture, and beat several people including women with the broken pieces A few days later, a goon squad entered the monastery of Czestochowa in a similar manner, while in other parts of the country the homes and cars of several prominent dissidents were set on fire by "unknown persons " The attacks culminated on May 14 in the arrest and fatal beating of Grzegorz Przemek, the teenage son of well-known poet and Solidarity activist Barbara Sadowska, who was herself one of the victims of the St Martin's assault These actions on the part of the state met with an outpouring of popular indignation Przemek's funeral drew a crowd of 20,000 Warsaw residents, who accompanied his body to the cemetery carrying Solidarity banners and chanting union slogans Afraid of further escalation, the authorities not only refrained from intervening but announced "a vigorous investigation to discover and duly punish those responsible " (Not surprisingly, this is turning into a vigorous whitewash ) The campaign of terror, aside from its simple purpose of retaliating for the Solidarity mobilizations, may have been intended to discourage any demonstrations during the Papal tour Jaruzelski's government feared all along that the visit would set of f massive outbreaks of unrest, and given the Pontiffs presence it would be embarrassing to react m the usual manner John Paul's itinerary was carefully planned to minimize the danger The port cities of Gdansk and Sczcecin, for instance, important centers of workers' opposition, were left off the schedule Further, in preparing to host the Pope the regime was worried about his personal security-a highly volatile issue in view of the alleged connection between the attempt on John Paul's life by a Turkish gunman in 1981 and the Soviet secret police Warsaw understood that should anything untoward happen to the Pope while he was in Poland-and largely under the protection of the SB, the KGB's local subsidiary-the domestic and international consequences would be unpredictable In the light ot the dangers involved, we may well ask why the Pope's trip was permitted at all Indeed, up to the last minute a cancellation seemed possible under the pretext of, say, "the continuation of public disorders promoted by subversive Solidarity underground organizations " There was conjecture that the police might try to provoke such disturbances with a few spectacular acts of brutality Yet the Communists obviously decided that the visit could also help them in their campaign to "normalize" relations with the populace To begin with, Jaruzelski may hope that his letting the former Karol Wojtyla return home will win his unpopular government a measure of gratitude and acceptance In addition, he may expect to turn the tour, and particularly the official meeting he made sure to arrange between himself and John Paul, into a Papal stamp of approval for the Polish status quo Finally, he may be calculating that once Poles face the realization that the Pope has come and gone and the regime remains, their enthusiasm will give way to a state of psychological and emotional exhaustion that will make them more amenable to discipline Of course, the majority of the Polish people have rather different expectations There is a sincere and deep affection for John Paul among his countrymen and many look upon his visit as an end m itself Others hope it will somehow have a mitigating effect on the stern political, psychological and material realities of their lives and open the way to constructive interchange with the regime This sentiment has persisted despite the fact that a great number of those who harbor it admit it is not strictly rational (Such a breakthrough in the nation's political deadlock would, after all, be a virtual miracle ) Even some desperate members of the Communist apparatus reportedly began looking to the Pope as a source of reconciliation in the months preceding his sojourn The Pope's reasons for visiting a country whose authoritarian government has repeatedly rejected his pleas tor the restoration ot genuine workers' organizations and the freeing ot political prisoners are another matter According to information from the Vatican, John Paul felt his physical presence was needed to give the Poles spiritual strength in their current torment and help them maintain their fundamental ethical and national values Besides this, he too may hold a modest hope that his week in Poland will facilitate the beginnings of a national dialogue Moscow, meanwhile, is plainly apprehensive that the Pope's highly-publicized stay will refocus an unwelcome spotlight on the political, moral and economic bankruptcy of the Warsaw regime, and so spur opposition to Communism m Poland and elsewhere Accordingly, it is less than pleased with the Polish Party for allowing the trip An indication of this-and of the Kremlin's unhappiness over the events of early May-was offered by an article last month in the Moscow periodical Novoye Vremya that criticized the Jaruzelski group Nevertheless, the Russians did not block the visit, and this could be a sign of their confidence that whatever trouble it may cause them in Poland, their essential interests there will be maintained Assessing Poland's prospects on the eve of John Paul's journey, Polish and Western observers agreed they were quite uncertain If the authorities used the Papal tour or its aftermath as an occasion for meeting some of the demands voiced by Solidarity on May 1, the domestic conflicts would simmer down while relations with the Soviet Union would probably boil up and perhaps over If the Pope's travels were troubled by violence (possibly instigated and kept alive by the police), there was a chance they would be interrupted and Jaruzelski and company replaced b\ rulers who would practice undisguised terror Should any harm come to John Paul in his homeland, it seemed (hat the repercussions, although their tull impact would not be felt immediately, might ultimately prove similar to those of Sarajevo in 1914 And it, as appeared most likely, the Pope's trip passed without extraordinary incident, Poland would simply remain as it was a country in crisis whose future is unclear Casimir Garnysz, a past contributor, is the pseudonym of a Polish social scientist now living in the United States...