How Reagan Does It

...Andrew Mollison, a frequent New Leader contributor, is chief political writer for the Cox Newspapers...

...Washington-USA HOW REAGAN DOES IT BY ANDREW MOLLISON Washington Imagine the relish of Ronald Reagan were he a challenger taking on a Democratic incumbent with the present Administration's record' The domestic report card includes staggering unemployment, an uncertain recovery that is slow for whites and nonexistent for blacks, a trade drain, a 25 per cent rise in the proportion of children living in poverty, a boozy money supply, disheartening real interest rates, and the highest deficits in history Abroad, Marines are garrisoned indefinitely in Lebanon, Cubans are camped in Southern Africa, Afghanistan is still occupied by the Soviet Union, vulnerable MX missiles are slated to be substituted for vulnerable Minutemen The handling of the arms control negotiations and the situations in El Salvador and Nicaragua would not escape criticism either But, as Reagan admits with a chuckle, his wit, charm and high spurts enabled him to become a popular student leader despite mediocre formal grades Today, his opponents and allies are both basing their preparations for the 1984 campaign on the prudent supposition that he will again be a formidable candidate The President's easy, cheerful rapport with the people is reflected in a recent ABC-Washington Post poll showing that only 41 per cent of American men and 54 per cent of women disapprove his handling of the economy Luck could stretch the incipient economic upturn past the next election, dropping joblessness closer to the levels that existed before his policies were implemented Meanwhile, he is aided by the media's derision of his Democratic challengers as a drab bunch lacking new ideas, and relying on rational responses to active pressure groups rather than imaginative elixirs for the passive mass audience Beyond the advantages of circumstance, Reagan effectively employs four consistent tactics These have helped him through both his post-November slump into moderation and his glorious reentry this spring into the conservative pantheon First, he advertises his successes He is trumpeting the current decline of inflation, and the easing of the recession and record unemployment that were exacerbated if not caused by his policies Many apparently accept his claims that he brought on this rosier situation "When optimism about the economy surges, Reagan's popularity goes up," poll analyst William H Hamilton lamented at a meeting of the Democratic National Strategy Council "The key is that the perception of the economy improving has increased since March 1 " Moreover, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed to Americans for Democratic Action with the bewilderment of one who does not prescribe bitter pills, the Republican's ratings rose despite the fact that" a recent Gallup poll tells us 82 per cent of the American people believe the Reagan programs have helped the rich [and] a not wholly modest 75 per cent think the Administration has assailed the Door " Reagan's second technique is to defy the experts, reminding one of that crotchety Renaissance magician and proto-chemist, the great Paracelsus, who spent much of his life ranting at physicians for preferring time-honored, soothing, yet unreliable balsams and electuaries In the process he eventually hit upon chemical and psychological theories that have since been corroborated by modern treatments of syphilis, silicosis and neuroses Reagan, too, offers fresh near-truths at a time when established practitioners are ripe for disrespect Stagflation, after all, has done to mainstream economics what the black plague did to medieval medicine The President's third method is to turn debates over policy into melodramatic confrontations of Us against Them "That which you wish to Luther you also wish to me You wish us both in the fire," Paracelsus complained when his innovations were challenged in 1532 In a victory for pizzazz over intellectual humility, he then publicly burned the classical medical texts of Avicenna and Galen while students cheered Similarly, this spring Reagan warned an enthusiastic gathering of evangelical Christians that "old Screw-tape reserved his best efforts for those of you in the church," and urged that they "beware of the temptation to simply call the arms race a giant misunderstanding and thereby remove yourself from the struggle between good and evil " Soon afterward, homebuilders who survived the industry's worst slump since the Great Depression were told by Reagan "We're engaged in a struggle between the proponents of big government and the vast majority of Americans who put their faith in our basic values and our free system of democratic capitalism " Reagan's fourth mainstay is a flexibility that some have called sleight of hand As Paracelsus (who was also known as Theophrastus Bombastus) proclaimed, "Magic is a Great Hidden WisdomReason is a Great Open Folly " Thus Reagan last January could propound "More than half of the deficit is due to the recession, to the fact that people are not working and paying and instead are, indeed, being a cost item to the government because of the need to help them in their time of unemployment " Then, on Monday May 16, he could declare "When you clear away the rhetoric, the issue is quite simple Deficits are the symptom, the disease is uncontrolled spending, and the cause is an addiction to big government " The following day, reversing field again, he could state "Of course, about 50 per cent of the budget deficits we have to say are made up or are based on the recession " It may seem at times that the President's mouth is connected to his heart rather than his brain, or that he arrives at arguments only after he has taken positions The brutal staff battles that precede his decisions suggest, however, that those who know him best think him neither impervious to reasoning nor precipitous in making up his mind Perhaps his style lies behind the switching back and forth Like Paracelsus in medicine or Franklin D Roosevelt m politics, Reagan exhibits more imagination than intellect Abstract matters bore him So does logic He experiments restlessly, then patiently awaits the results Last November he got some results Republicans lost 26 House seats and seven governorships His swift response was to drive his more "Right-wing Congressional allies into less rigid stances on higher taxes, highway and bridge repairs, job subsidies, and Social Security funding Next, the New Federalism faded Plans to abolish the departments of Education and Energy wafted away Proposals for constitutional amendments to promote school prayer, discourage abortions and require balanced Federal budgets all wilted The push for deregulation faltered Later, stumped by the contradictions of his budgetary desires, Reagan rose above consistency He submitted a bleak call for taxes equal to 19 per cent of the GNP and spending equal to 24 per cent, blithely disowning his own budget office's sober prediction that the consequence would be deficits, deficits and more deficits The arms control team and t he cabinet were changed The top echelon of the Environmental Protection Agency was replaced Intenor Secretary James Watt barely survived As Reagan dithered, the true believers and the pragmatists m his household fought for his soul But before long new developments surfaced Polls revealed that although almost all blacks and a majority of women were still skeptical, most men thought a recovery was under way Maybe Reaganomics was working Around the same time, the President's core constituency reacted to his lapse into temperate political behavior Contributions by individuals to the Republican National Committee fell in the first quarter of this year by more than $2 million (That unnerving 18 per cent drop from the first quarter of 1982 probably precipitated the panicky GOP efforts to sabotage the Democratic National Telethon ) Out went the Great Compromiser, back came the Great Communicator, spouting conservative truisms Troublesome moderates on the Civil Rights Commission and in the State Department were purged Efforts by Republican Senators to forge a makeshift budget resolution, which Reagan could not have vetoed, were spurned in anticipation of combat over individual appropriation bills, where his veto gives him more leverage With the Administration line clarified, public staff feuds died away What does all this portend for 1984'' At the moment it seems that like Californians during their Reagan years, the country as a whole could re-elect a conservative incumbent Chief Executive even as it cramps his wilder swings by sending more liberals to Capitol Hill It might be more sensible for the mass of voters, most of whom are moderates, to replace Reagan with a Democrat But for the Democrats a split government-the probability foreshadowed by Reagan's California reign-would be an improvement over their tears two years ago that their bumbling in the 1970s had triggered an epochal swing to the far Right in American politics Can Reagan keep up his past popularity...

...Will he keep it up' Experience answers Why not...