Lebanon's Shifting Political Landscape

...In fact, a remarkable aspect of this flux has been the number of alliances and partnerships that have developed within and among what the Lebanese Constitution refers to as "confessional" groups MaroniteChnsttan, Greek Orthodox, Sunni and Shi'ta Moslem, and Druze Allegiances have shifted and fragmented, and vanished combinations reappear, often in altered forms Specialists following the esotenca of Lebanon have had to constantly update their scorecards to keep track of these changes For within each of the major confessional groups unexpected fissures and important alliances have developed Consider the case of one of the important leaders of the Marontte Christian community, former President Suleiman Franjieh( 1970-76) He welcomed the Syrians when they intervened in 1976 to prevent a Maronite defeat at the hands of the PLO and its allies, and he continues to be a strong supporter of Damascus But Shaykh Pierre Gem-ayel, leader of the largest Maronite force (the Kata'ib or, as they are known in the West, Falanghists), has been more chary of Syrian involvement Consequently, for some time Pierre and his powerful son, Bashir (commander of the Kata'ib), have been calling for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon Meanwhile Franjieh, whose son Tony was murdered in June 1978, reportedly lives for the day he can taste revenge against the man he believes to have been the author of the crime—Bashir Gem-ayel Even though Franjieh's forces fought alongside the Kata'ib in 1975-76, therefore, he is hardly an ally Another former President, Camille Chamoun (1952-1958), also led a militia that fought alongside the Kata'ib In the summer of 1980, however, the Cha-mounist Al-Numur (or the Tigers)were soundly beaten by the kata'ib in a bloody round of clashes in Beirut Ironically enough, Chamoun is now the titular head of the Kata'ib-dominated Lebanese Front One of the oddest admixtures of forces in Lebanon is the "Christian Militia"—which has more Moslem than Christian members The political sympathies ot its leader, Sa'ad Haddad, are said lo favor Chamoun Haddad controls the ribbon of land known as "Free Lebanon" thai piovides Noilhcrn Israel with a buffer against fedayeen incursions The survivor of at least one assassination attempt, he is wearying of his task and last fall he sought to resign With no replacement in sight, the Israelis have resisted his retirement plans Haddad clearly understands that his is a passing role in the history of Lebanon, but his association with Israel has complicated his efforts to end that role STRANGE MACHINATIONS have not been confined to the Maronites and their confederates Within the Lebanese National Movement, the loose association of Leftists opposing the Lebanese Front, we find the Greek Orthodox-dominated Syrian Social Nationalist Party coexisting with its ideological adversary, the Lebanese Communist Party—itself fragmented into several groups Also typical of the factions in the LNM is the Ba 'ath (Renaissance Party), which has not surprisingly proven to be a microcosm of the tense relationship between the only two states ruled by Ba 'ath regimes, Iraq and Svna Although the Ba'ath is comprised of Christians and Moslems, political allegiances have played a larger role in party infighting than religious ties The PLO everts a strong and burgeoning influence on the LNM, too, and haseverv incentive to maintain the sohdantv ot its Lebanese tnends Indeed, if theie is an LNM-PLO pailner-ship, there is no question that the PLO is the senior partner But the PLO and for that matter the principal Jedayeen group, Al-Fatah, are hardly monolithic organizations They have not been immune to fissioning pressures of their own But the most significant twist involv -ing the LNM has been the rapid growth of a movement uniting many Lebanese Shi'ites—the nation's largest sect Known as Harakat Amal (The Movement of Hope), it belonged to the LNM until 1976, when it supported the Syrian intervention in Lebanon and as a result found itself at odds with the majority of LNM members Especially since 1980, Amal has been involved m sharp confrontations with such LNM affiliates as the Communist Party and the Iraqi Ba'ath Party, as well as Palestinian organizations ranging from the Iraqi-backed Arab Liberation Front to Al-Fatah For all that Lebanese Shi'ites have traditionally supported Palestinian aspirations, their war-weariness and commitment to restoring central rule have led to a remarkable realignment This could prove to be the most important development in recent Lebanese history The Lebanese government itself continues to work toward the rebuilding of the Armed Forces, a step that some believe holds the key to bringing back a single authority throughout Lebanon Nowhere is the simplistic Christians vs Moslems myth more inappropriate than in the Lebanese Army, where soldiers are more concerned with the fate of their country than with the religion of their comrades Under the command of General Victor Khun, the 24,000 man Army is making progress in re-equipping and retraining A 1,500-man contingent, working side bv side with the UN Interim Forces in South Lebanon, has been responsible tor at least modest improvements in security...

...A GLIMMER OF HOPE Lebanon's Shifting Political Landscape BY AUGUSTUS R. NORTON BEFORE its dismemberment began in 1975, Lebanon was governed by a tenuous arrangement that carefully distributed rewards through the zu'utnma (political strongmen) representing the country's numerous local religious communities Although the zu'umma have in large part survived, much of their clout has dissipated, in many cases they have only memories of influence Power, if seldom accountability, has been diffused in what today passes for the Lebanese political system The land is awash with weapons, casual military uniforms are high fashion and foreign sponsors compete for hegemony by funding the exploits of their favored faction Men of good faith and intention—like President Elias Sarkis and Prime Minister Shafiq Al-Wazzan, both of whom have remained aloof during the civil war—are working conscientiously to reconstruct the state and its institutions But the passing of authority to myriad cliques has keenly complicated the efforts of even the most dedicated peacemakers Imagine for a moment that you are an adventurous spirit driving south from Beirut to the border with Israel First you would traverse a landscape of scarred and destroyed buildings, burned-out vehicles and other battle "memorabilia " Then—with luck—you would pass through successive checkpoints, each manned by whoever controls the area where you are stopped Thus, you would encounter Syrian soldiers of the Arab Deterrent Force, militia of various factions aligned with the Leftist Lebanese National Movement (LNM), remnants of the breakaway Lebanese Arab Army formed by dissident Moslem officers in 1976, fedayeen from various Palestinian groups, UN soldiers, members of Major Sa' ad Had-dad's so-called Christian Mihtia, as well as an occasional Israeli soldier All told, in your journey of 60 miles you would pass through as many as two or three dozen mini-territories—the number increases as security worsens?or roughly one checkpoint every two miles Should your wanderlust carry you east or north the experience would be basically the same The very presence and variety of these fiefdoms vividly illustrate how little this beleaguered nation resembles a functioning state The tendency in the West is to oversimplify the events and participants in Lebanon's continuing violence Yet seemingly basic labels like Christian vs Moslem only add to the misunderstanding of what is going on there The panoply of militias and political organizations that fought in the 1975-76 civil war was diverse to say the least, and matters have not been standing still...

...Many roadblocks—literal and figurative—remain to be cleared But for the first time since the civil war in 1975, there is a ghmmei ot hope that ultimately the Lebanon government will somehow prevail AUGUSTUS R. NORTON, a new contributor, specializes in Middle East affairs...

...To be sure, the going is veiw rough lor those who want to make L ebanon whole again...