Britain's Political Horse Race

...The unions want to help elect a Labor government that m return will implement pro-union legislation With the party polarized and a modus Vivendi between the two sides relentlessly elusive, Basnett, Jenkins and others felt they had no option but to step in and lay down the law to all concerned But despite cheery announcements at Bishop's Stortford that things would be different, there is little to indicate that the rift in Labor's ranks has been bridged The left, led by a slightly subdued Tony Benn, is uncompromisingly determined to have the party pursue a "socialist" program that has as its main features unilateral nuclear disarmament (a position with anti-American overtones), a speedy withdrawal from the Common Market, and a sweeping new wave of nationalization On the other side are the moderates and rightwingers, led by a group of former ministers that embraces Deputy Party Leader Denis Healey, Peter Shore (thought of more and more these days as a possible successor to Foot), Roy Hattersley, and Eric Varley Along with most Labor Members of Parliament, these men consider the Bennite platform at best ill-conceived and impractical, at worst fanatical and politically suicidal In the last few weeks, both factions have attempted to heed the union leaders' advice to direct their attacks at the Conservatives and Social Democrats, not at each other But they have managed to do so only by virtually ignonng the left's trinity of basic policies This has not been easy, and many Labontes are showing the strain Indeed, it is hard to find a Labor politician who will say with even a pretense of confidence that his party will win the next election More than a score of Labor MPs have already defected to the hated Social Democrats A survey taken for a television current affairs program shows that a majority of British union members are also convinced Labor will lose Bill Sirs, head of the steel workers and one of the country's most respected trade unionists, recently even committed the heresy of suggesting that the next government might be formed by a Social Democratic-Labor coalition THE SITUATION amounts to a sad commentary on Michael Foot's performance as Labor Party Leader When James Callaghan relinquished the job two years ago, Foot was chosen to succeed him because he seemed the man most likely to heal the party's divisions and whip it into shape to take power once Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's capitalist strategy fell on its face Things have not turned out that way Even when it became clear that the Tories were stum-bling badly, the voters' attention remained focused on the undisguised fratricide among Laborites "What some people fail to understand,' a Benn lieutenant told a reporter, "is that we hate each other ' Foot is one of the most articulate and eloquent speakers to grace the House of Commons in modern times Nonetheless, his attempts to be a unifying Labor figure have only isolated him from his natural constituency in Parliament and in the electorate A man of the left himself, Foot has become convinced, with good reason, that it is the Bennites who are primarily responsible for Labor's disarray Acting on this conclusion, he personally (and improperly, according to official Labor procedure) vetoed the nomination of a left-wing candidate for Parliament in a by-election because it would probably have meant losing the seat to the Social Democrats In addition, he has condemned left-wing proposals for extra-Parliamentary action to promote desired policies, rejecting his own history of backing such action himself And he has looked with some tolerance upon right-wing calls for the expulsion of disruptive "Trotskyites" from Labor ranks, although in the past he always objected with silver-tongued fury to the idea of party purges Responsibility has taken a terrible toll on Foot After nearly a lifetime committed to righteous causes and laced with stirring speeches, he finds himself not leading the social revolution he has always dreamed of, but trying frantically to save his party from disintegration It would be ironic if, instead of going down in history as the natural successor to such radical Labor titans as Keir Hardie and Nye Bevan, he was chiefly remembered as the man who supenntended the Labor Party's final collapse Despite the vast and growing unemployment rolls, despite a pevasive sense of unease in the land, Britain's bookies seem to be taking the public pulse correctly when they quote 4-1 odds against Foot succeeding Thatcher as Prime Minister The odds might have been longer, since their racetrack fiasco proved them capable of miscalculation, the turf accountants are being cautious NORMAN GELB, the NL's correspondent in London, is currently completing a book about life in the British Isles...

...EARLY ODDS Britain's Political Horse Race BY NORMAN GLEB BITISH BOOKIES-or "turf accountants," to give them their formal title perate both legally and profitably Setting their own odds and finding countless takers in thousands of betting parlors across the country, they rarely have much to complain about Recently, however, they suffered an embarrassing setback During a horse race, the favorite filly suddenly veered out of control and had to be gingerly cantered off the track by the jockey Gamblers who had put their money on the two remaimng horses in the contest to win and place—at 140-1?made a huge killing The bookies were so upset, especially by their own momentary lapse in permitting such astronomical odds in a three-horse race, that they refused to pay up until persuaded that no mischief had been at play The analogy may seem frivolous, because the country's future is involved, but Britain is now in the midst of a three-sided political race where the favorite of not too long ago has veered out of control and is resisting efforts by the man in the saddle to steer it back on track Michael Foot's British Labor Party, which once seemed a sure bet to sweep the dogmatically monetarist Conservatives out of office, today doesn't appear to stand a chance Remarkably, the ruling Tories pulled slightly ahead of Labor in the latest public opinion polls, despite the nation's 12 per cent unemployment rate Of even greater significance, though, is the fact that the Social Democratic-Liberal Party Alliance fashioned only last year has come to present a far more credible alternative to the Thatcherites than Foot's squabbling band of brothers As had been expected, the early bloom of the Alliance has faded a bit and some internal friction has surfaced Nevertheless, the results of recent parliamentary by-elections, local elections and polls continue to show the Social Democratic-Liberal ticket to be the frontrunner in the next general elections, if only by a nose Much can happen, of course, before Britons actually cast their votes robably at the end of 1983, but no later than 1984 Indeed, a critical test of the political waters will take place next month when Roy Jenkins, former president of the Common Market and one of the founding intelligences of the Social Democratic Party, stands for Parliament in Glasgow's Hillhead district Still, it seems increasingly evident that only a major, improbable reversal of current trends can save Labor from an electoral disaster Appalled at the drift of events, trade union leaders ncluding such heavyweights as David Basnett of the General and Municipal Workers, and Clive Jenkins of the Association of Scientific, Technical and Managerial Staff ummoned feuding Labontes to a conclave at Bishop's Stortford, just outside London There they managed to get agreement at least to tone down the internecine sniping that has shattered the party's public image The leaders pointed out that their unions were having a hard enough time in the current economic slump, and that if the party doomed itself to defeat at the polls, they could not possibly continue saving it from bankruptcy with their funds There are underlying historical and ideological reasons why unions support the Labor Party, but the primary considerations are practical ones...