Israel's Ambiguous Victory

...The air of optimism, at least in U.S and European headlines, was inspired by a flurry of developments: a somewhat vague six-point Arab League plan for a PLO pullout issued in Jidda, Saudi Arabia, July 29, President Reagan's direct involvement, through meetings in Washington with Egypt's Foreign Minister Kamal Hassan Ah on July 30 and Israel's Foreign Minister Yitzchak Shamir on August 2, the intensified negotiating activities of Philip C Habib,theUS special envoy in the Middle East, and an evacuation proposal PLO leader Yasir Arafat reportedly presented to Lebanese Prime Minister Shafik al-Wazzan But Israelis remain wary They recall that early in July the departure of the PLO from West Beirut was thought to be virtually arranged Then Arafat seemed to conclude that staying put provided him with an extremely effective political and propaganda weapon against Israel worth even dozens of casualties, especially of Lebanese civilians His conditions for going, transmitted to Habib, included leaving about half his forces in Lebanon, a continued PLO "political presence" in Beirut, Israeli withdrawal to the south and the interposition of a UN-governed international peacekeeping force between the combatants, and "discussions" with the Lebanese government about the actual exit of the commandos who were to leave It all added up to a neat prescription for snatching political victory from the jaws of military defeat—something Israel is nol prepared to accept Moreover, Prune Minister Menachem Begin and Defense Minister Ariel Sharon are still determined not only to push the PLO out of Lebanon entirely, but to achieve the wider political aims of the June 6 invasion as well At a rally in Tel Aviv last month attended by 150-200,000 supporters (organized to counter a Peace Now demonstration that drew 75-100,000), Begin unequivocally declared that Israel would sign a peace treaty with Lebanon by the end of this year He left a more important assumption unsaid yet clearly understood The PLO's military defeat would put an end to its dominant influence in the occupied West Bank, and in time Israel would be able to find a moderate Palestinian leadership willing to accept a modest autonomy plan Jerusalem also believes that Iran's offensive against Iraq—unless it can be dramatically repelled, which no one expects—will strengthen Israel's hand in Lebanon The new phase in the Persian Gulf war has turned a number of tables in the Arab World, it is noted, improving the Israeli bargaining position in several ways ?Teheran's refusal to abide by opec production quotas has rendered the cartel, already of little consequence in the EllahuSalpetlr, a regular SL contributor, is a correspondent tor Ha'arelz Lebanese crisis, practically impotent In its desperation for funds to finance its war effort, Iran has been pumping out twice the 1 2 million barrels a day allowed by opec and selling much of this on the spot market at $4 below the sanctioned price of $34 Riyadh, not long after telling Washington it was merely an arms vendor and could not dictate how its wares might be used, clearly needs American protection more than ever It is hard to imagine Saudi Arabia (or other countries in the Gulf) claiming that Israel is a more dangerous enemy than Iran—although the Zionists were said to be a greater threat than the Soviet Union earlier this year when the U S sought joint defense arrangements with the Saudis in exchange for the awacs planes The Kingdom is a typical "one crisis" country Now that its rulers have to concentrate on the Ayatollah Ruhol-lah Khomeini, they will pay less attention to being advocates for the PLO ?Arab unity—fictitious under any circumstances—has hit a new low Syria and Libya continue to side with Iran, despite its troops being well inside Iraqi territory Observers believe that the PLO, compelled to sit on the fence because of its dependence on Syria, is now paying the price with the majority of Arab countries Iraq's backers are showing themselves less willing to rush to the Palestinians' defense than they would have been otherwise ?On a tactical level, the victories of Teheran's Shi'ite Moslem Army are likely to boost the morale of the Lebanese Shi'ite militia, the Amal, a former close ally of the PLO that has been turning away from it in the past few weeks Shi'ites now make up most of Major Sa'ad Haddad's "Christian" Mihtiain southern Lebanon In West Beirut, Amal units have been shooting it out with Palestinians trying to occupy vacant buildings in the center of the city Yet paradoxically ,aSthePLO has lost ground in the Arab world and crumbled on the battlefield, the Palestinian cause has made gains in the West and—indirectly—in Israel itself Israelis have only lately begun to understand the public relations beating they have suffered in the industrial democracies as a result of their move into Lebanon Analyzing the reasons for this, they recognize that the "Vietnam syndrome' inherent in televised war coverage and their own badly botched handling of the press (see "Lebanon the Good, the Bad, the Misleading," NL, June 28) are partly to blame But they suspect more sinister factors at work, too, at least in Europe "It may be no coincidence that the Europeans have easily latched on to the nonsensical PLO claims of Israeli genocide," a communications professor here speculated "If the Israelis, survivors of the Holocaust, engage in genocide, that diminishes the enormity of the genocide of 6 million European Jews I also found it uncanny how tenaciously politicians and the media in Europe stick to the figure of 600,000 being made homeless in southern Lebanon after we have pointed out to them that this exceeds the total number of inhabitants there ' Arafat and his assistants were quick to capitalize on the image of Israel as a callous aggressor The scare Francois Mitterrand sent through the Arab world last March, when he exhibited his longstanding friendship for Israel by becoming the first French President to visit here, is today a dim memory On July 15, Mitterrand received an official PLO representative as part of an Arab League delegation, the first Western European head of state to do so Other European capitals have argued that because the PLO has been nullified militarily, it must be saved as a diplomatic entity—logic Israelis find less than comprehensible Apparently the PLO was ahead of Israel, too, in reading the impact of the media's war coverage on U S public opinion in general and Capitol Hill in particular Witness the massive, well-coordinated propaganda campaign it has unleashed, and the Congressional pilgrimage to Arafat led by Republican Representative Paul N McCloskey Jr of California In an oblique way, even in Israel the PLO has benefited from its rout in Lebanon Having been cut down to real size, it can no longer be presented as the most serious armed threat in the country's history The PLO has been de-de-monized, and in the future Israeli governments will have to discuss it more in political than in emotional terms But the most important consequence of the war in Lebanon could be the re-focusing of international—especially American—attention on the overall Palestinian question Wrecking the PLO could serve to demonstrate that the self-determination issue exists independently of the organization's terrorist acts Indeed, as the talks on getting the PLO out of Beirut dragged on, more and more voices stressed the need for viewing the problem in the context of a much broader agreement, Egyptian President Hosm Mubarak sent this message to President Reagan, and Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal repeated it in person in Washington Of course, the ideas under consideration in Bonn, Pans, Cairo or Riyadh do not parallel Begm's interpretation of the Camp David Accords It is possible that in smashing the PLO, Israel has let the Palestinian genie out of the bottle and will find it very difficult to put back This was certainly not what Begin and Sharon intended when they sent Israeli troops across the Lebanese border...

...LOSING IN THE MEDIA Israel's Ambiguous Victory BY ELIAHU SALPETER TEL AVTV THE ON-AGAIN, off-again prospects for a peaceful withdrawal of Palestine Liberation Organization forces from besieged West Beirut appeared to be on-again as the war in Lebanon was about to enter its third month...