Schism or Stalemate in Israel?

SALPETER, ELIAHU

READING THE VOTE Schism or Stalemate in Israel? by eliahu salpeter TelAvtv "For perhaps the first time in our history, the 'have-JL nots' supported the government in power, while the 'haves'...

...Labor's search for a silver lining may sound bitter, but the challenges facing its successful opponent are undeniably formidable...
...Since neither of the major parties came close to achieving a majority, a coalition govenment continues to be necessary...
...Because paper ballots consisting of party lists are used in Israel, and details of the Armed Forces' vote are kept secret, definitive readings bearing on such fundamental issues will not be possible for some time...
...And even several of the conclusions being drawn from what is already known of the results seem open to dispute...
...Ironically, the Labor list had a much higher percentage of Oriental candidates...
...Where together they comprised less than two-thirds of the previous Parliament, in the new one they took slightly more than three-quarters of the seats...
...The sight of Oriental's wielding clubs, screaming "Begin...
...This would indicate that status is no less of an influence than origin in determining party affiliation, though one cannot easily discount myriad other factors...
...and 4.5 per cent is third generation Israeli-bom, overwhelmingly of Ashkenazi background...
...The last three weeks before the vote, Begin became the symbol of everything good and bad in the country...
...Labor—out of necessity, given Shimon Peres' lack of charisma, as much as out of principle—emphasized the "team" that would head a future government...
...Indeed, although many believe there has been a basic reversal of Labor's steady decline since the '50s, pointing toward a recouping of former predominance, it is too early to tell...
...Once Begin retires?or withdraws permanently into one of his recurring bouts with depression?there is nobody in his party who can take his place arousing crowds and overcoming internal disputes...
...Whatever the case, until social scientists are able to carry out a detailed study of local returns, no one can say what the true ethnic-party equation is...
...This appears especially impressive coming in a confrontation with Begin, unquestionably Israel's most charismatic politician, and in the face of unprecedented manipulation of the economy by his Finance Minister, Yoram Aridor to induce voters to forget the runaway inflation plus other woes (see "Begin Bounces Back," NL, June 15...
...45 per cent is first or second generation Oriental...
...What it recovered was largely the support of unaffiliated middle-class voters and the liberal intelligentsia, diverted in '77 by Yigael Yadin's now defunct progressive Democratic Movement...
...So close was the outcome that almost a week passed before it was clear that of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Likud had won 48 and Labor 47...
...Labor intellectuals and kibitzers note, too, that Likud will have the task of removing Jewish settlements f rom the Sinai before handing over the rest of the territory to Egypt...
...The remaining 25 seats were divided as follows: National Religious Party (moderate Orthodox) 6; Agudath Israel (strict Orthodox), 4; Communists, 4; Tami (North African Orthodox), 3; Tehiya (Right-wing, led by Geula Cohen), 3; Telem (headed by Moshe Dayan), 2; Shinui (liberals), 2; and Civil Rights Movement, 1. Now the question being debated here is whether the returns are evidence of a potentially debilitating schism in the society...
...In the present circumstances this places the religious groups, whose combined strength has varied little over the last three decades, in a stronger position than ever to tip the scales of power—hardly an unmixed blessing...
...Be-gin...
...Moreover, only eight of the 30 smaller parties managed to score victories...
...by eliahu salpeter TelAvtv "For perhaps the first time in our history, the 'have-JL nots' supported the government in power, while the 'haves' voted for the oppposition...
...The observation, made the day after Israel's June 30 national election, was an attempt to explain the virtual stalemate between Menachem Begin's ruling Likud bloc and the Labor Alignment led by Shimon Peres...
...and throwing tomatoes at Labor speakers—juxtaposed with accounts of arson at Labor offices—fit nicely with stereotypes...
...Laborites, of course, responded that he was a nationalistic demagogue who needlessly irritated the Arabs and insulted friendly foreign officials...
...And he had squandered Israel's meager resources on tax cuts and business subsidies to assure his re-election...
...For instance, Sephardic Jews who arrived in Palestine several generations back, became part of the elite, but continued to transmit the Spanish cultural values of ancestors who fled the Inquisition, have on the whole stayed with Labor...
...Because a greater proportion of the "Europeans" belong to the higher socio-economic stratum, it is assumed that considerably more of them went to the polls...
...Much has been made of Labor's resurgence, too...
...the Alignment remains behind its preEliahu Salpeter, a regular NL contributor, is a correspondent for Ha'aretz...
...Hewasthepatronsainttothe underpri-viledged, and he was the defender of free enterprise and large profits for well-to-do businessmen...
...Thus, at present anyway, those who claim to see an ethnic schism in the June vote are merely speaking of their perception of general group preferences...
...Campaign violence also distorted views on the ethnic issue...
...Yom Kippur War strength...
...Clearly, for example, there was a marked swing to Likud and Labor...
...The Labor faithful have been consoling themselves with the thought that Likud's fortunes depend entirely on a single individual...
...Enough independent voters were frightened to prevent the Likud landslide that appeared to be in the offing after the bombing of the Osirak nuclear reactor...
...Another interpretation of the election results that is open to question focuses on the ethnic polarization of the electorate—reflected in the comment about how the"haves" and "havenots" voted...
...Supporters voted for the man, rather than any platform, program or ideology...
...Actually, though, it would be more accurate to speak of a "two-and-a-half party system...
...Ultimately, Menachem Begin himself was the central issue of thecampaign...
...He was the protector of troublesome settlements and promoter of the creeping annexation of the West Bank that endangered the treaty with Egypt...
...But astupid ethnic slur byaminor entertainer at a large rally is thought to have cost the party votes equivalent to two or three Knesset seats, and probably the chance to lead the government coalition...
...The hysteric outbursts of the crowds wherever Begin spoke underscored thegeneral feeling that his party would stand or fall with its leader...
...others were more united in the need to vote against him than for the opposition...
...For the parallel growth of the Right has at most slowed down, it certainly has not stopped...
...Finally, they draw solace from the fact that the Prime Minister will have to contend with the inflation, rising unemployment and abysmal trade deficits precipitated by his pre-election economic policies...
...These developments are being widely hailed as reflecting maturity on the part of the electorate, and as a long overdue movement toward a Western-style two-party system...
...Moreover, a really meaningful analysis would have to weigh not only the ethnic component, but the relative importance of class mobility and educational differences to political choice...
...Alledgedly, "Oriental" Jews, immigrants from Asian and African countries and their offspring, flocked to Likud...
...This notion was fostered by campaign rhetoric playing to the two segments of voters, which was only slightly less pervasive than the main "for or against Begin" theme...
...It is unclear whether Israelis of Asian and African heritage have as strong an "ethnic identity," and vote accordingly, after graduating from universities or becoming part of the upper-middle class...
...Likud candidates unabashedly depicted themselves as spokesmen for the "neglected," "underprivileged" and "un-derrepresented" Oriental communities...
...No advances were registered at the expense of Likud, whose increase in seats from 42, 43 or 44 (depending on how one counts various splits in the previous Knesset) probably was equally significant...
...But not only did the clear majority that seemed within Labor's grasp early in the campaign ultimately evaporate...
...Ashkenazim," thosewho arrived from Europe and America and their de-scendents, supported Labor...
...Again, there is no denying that the Alignment's 50 per cent gain over its 1977 all-time low of 32 seats represents a considerable achievement...
...Begin strategists projected an image of the Prime Minister as the tough national leader who refused to yield to Western pressure or Arab threats, yet at the same time was the wise statesman who negotiated the peace with Egypt...
...Since both major parties nevertheless came out roughly even, it would seem reasonable to suggest that a sizable number of Ashkenazis chose Likud, and every Israeli knows some friends of Third World origin who voted for Labor...
...Statistics show that 49.5 per cent of the population eligible to vote (over 18) is still first or second generation Ashke-nazi...
...Not even at the peak of David Ben Gurion's popularity were Israeli elections as personality-oriented as this time around...

Vol. 64 • July 1981 • No. 15


 
Developed by
Kanda Sofware
  Kanda Software, Inc.