Mitterand's Deceptive Mandate

...A Communist from Montrouge put it succinctly: "We need to participate to stay alive politically...

...Opinion polls indicate that the new government has retained the good will of the 55 per cent of the electorate who voted for it...

...Whatever Mitterrand's immediate economic accomplishments, and despite his seemingly impressive mandate, he faces problems on the political front...

...The Socialist deputy and number three man in the party, Paul Quiles, observed late last month: "The country voted for a real transformation of society, and we are going to carry it out...

...In addition, Mitterand and Mauroy seek to build a "more just society," free of the "repression" and "abusesof power" that allegedly characterized previous administrations...

...Naturally, the Gaullists and Giscard-ians will warn that the government's program is the road to chaos...

...Changes are being heralded in the area of foreign policy, as well...

...the steel industry, for instance, is 60 per cent subsidized...

...He would like to reconcile early on the Gaullist goal of having France lead Europe, the Socialists' traditional commitment to European integration, and his government's irritation with U.S...

...Add this to the support of others on the Left and the total swells to 333, more than enough to dominate decision making...

...While one can still hear an old slogan from the 1972 Common Program of the Left calling for full-scale disarmament on all sides and a "dissolution of both theNATO and Warsaw blocs, in reality the Socialist President's commitment to the Atlantic pact rivals that of his predecessor, Valery Giscard D'Es-taing...

...Both Barre and Gaullist leader Jacques Chirac plan periodic Cassandra-like assessments of the "errors of the new major-ity,"and can be expected to present themselves as a "last recourse" should the Left fall...

...He favors the installation of nato's planned cruise and Pershing missiles, unless the Kremlin agrees to remove their SS-20s...

...But many Frenchmen worry that the Communists' real purpose is, in the words of a Rocardian Socialist, "to discredit the government by quitting in a crucial moment...

...is some-t imes an arrogant ally, and urged a " redefinition" of the relationship among nato members...

...No doubt he will do everything he can to avoid his forerunners' fate...

...The flight from the franc spurred by the Socialist victory has necessitated an $ 11 billion intervention by the Bank of France, stiff new exchange controls and a series of financial pep talks by moderate Finance Minister Jacques Delors...

...Intra-party bickering in the National Assembly has already started, and key issues like the extent of nationalization, tax measures and defense could stir up bitterness this fall...

...Their extended Brian L. Zimbler, a new contributor, spent this year studying the French Left at the Ecole Normale Superieure...

...Besides, some of the firms on the present "hit list" have been receiving substantial government handouts...

...One can therefore expect increased power for the workers' councils currently required in enterprises of over 50 people, and the introduction of autogestion into newly nationalized industries...

...Socialist foreign affairs expert VeroniqueNeierz told a gathering of party militants this month, "We have a conception of foreign policy completely different from Giscard's...

...Being in the opposition for 23 years has given the Left plenty of time to clarify those aims...

...Rather, itisthat ailing private sector industries—textiles, minicomputers—may require increasingly costly government bailouts and possibly convince the Left to turn to protectionism...

...But the Socialists themselves concede that the ensuing new consumption will fuel the price spiral and could send inflation to 15-16 per cent...

...Mitterrand feels he has "trapped" the Communists into accepting his policies—and sharing the blame should things go badly...

...Theplanisto enlarge the public sector by nationalizing domestic banks, insurance companies and 12 major industrial groups considered either monopolies or vital to the public interest...

...Mitterrand knows that economic chaos and internal political fighting were the doom of the past Leftist governments, notably the "Cartel of the Left" in 1924 and the Popular Front in 1936...

...They point out that the nationalization issue especially is a red herring: DeGaulle nationalized major banks and some industries back in 1946 without wrecking the economy, and they since have prospered: Such banks as Credit Lyonnais have stayed healthy, and the car manufacturer Renault—formerly run by Industry Minister Pierre Dreyfus—not only pioneered progressive labor practices but became France's leading industrial exporter...

...interest rates at this month's Ottawa summit of the leaders of the seven maj or industrial democracies...

...Once workers and consumers play a new role in society, it is claimed, greater creativity and economic confidence—two essential conditions for growth without crippling inflation-will flower...

...Where the Soviet Union is concerned Mitterand takes a tough stand...

...On top of this, the institution of various pro-labor provisions—the 35-hour law, a mandatory fifth week ol paid vacation, early retirement—will raise business overhead and lower productivity, further slowing growth...

...France's relations with Israel will grow more cordial, despite the furor over the bombing of Iraq's Osirak reactor and the consequent death of a French technician...

...The consensus of independent observers here is that the crunch will come for the Mitterrand-Mauroy government by autumn...

...The CGT and the other unions have so far proved compliant...

...Thus, abolition of the death penalty (a long-time crusade of Justice Minister Robert Badinter), reversal of the "security and liberty" law that toughened prison sentences and reduced the rights of the accused in court procedures, and various other alterations in the judicial system have been proposed...

...Optimism prevails...

...Some observers predict the Communists will stay on at least until 1983, when they will have to protect several important posts in the municipal elections...

...Their view is borne out by the divisions among the Socialist deputies elected last month...

...The spirit of John Maynard Keynes animates the new designs...

...Some Socialist militants can be heard complaining that the party has grown too big, too un-wieldly, too amorphous...

...The sweep is further consolidated by the fact that, after years of quarreling with the Socialists, the Communists have signed a "governmental solidarity pact" and joined Prime Minister Pierre Mauroy's Cabinet...

...At the same time, Mitterand has taken steps to soothe the fears Arab oil-producing states have of the European Left in general...

...The government's objective is to ultimately "democratize" the economy...

...No, Mitterrand's real struggles will take place on the Left...

...The situation is complicated by the fact that Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's Conservative government in Britain is perhaps even less pleased than the Reagan Administration about having a Socialist regime in France...

...The government has even promised to "reform " the rigid institutions of the Fifth Republic that now work in favor of the Left: It would make the seven-year Presidential term nonrenewable, give greater power to the legislature, and "decentralize" through granting more autonomy to regions and localities, thereby abandoning a long-established Jacobin tradition of centralized authority...

...In any case, Communist participation remains a two-edged sword...

...Be that as it may, they suffered major losses this spring and clearly hope to rebuild their party from within the government...

...Meanwhile, new taxes, greater government regulation and pending nationalizations have scared off foreign investors, sending stock prices on the Bourse tumbling an average of 25 per cent...

...Yet even if the Communists stay in the government, French labor expert Gerard Adam believes that "in a year or two, the cycle of union demands will start up again...

...The Socialists alone now hold an absolute majority of 270 seats in the 491 -member National Assembly, the all-important lower house of Parliament...

...Nor does the domestic economic mess inherited from Giscard and Barre offer a favorable environment for launching a Socialist program: Unemployment has shot up to almost 2 million (7.5 per cent of the work force), inflation stands near 14 per cent, growth has stagnated to zero, and investments have suffered a serious decline...

...Similarly, a promised freeze on nuclear power projects that may be good for the environment could necessitate the stepping up of oil imports, which already account for the bulk of the current trade deficit...

...The innovations will result from a stress on "human rights over geopolitical considerations...

...TheU.N...

...the essentially social democratic Mauroy and innovatively moderate Michel Rocard factions, each comprise roughly 18 per cent...

...OBSTACLES TO SOCIAUSM Mitterand's Deceptive Mandate BY BRIAN LZIMBER At first glance it would appear that the new Socialist government here has all the clout it needs to realize its dream of remaking French Society...

...What he terms "overbearing" American economic influence partly explains the attention devoted to the issue of high U.S...

...That would be most troublesome, since the Communists control the largest trade union, the Confederation Ginirale du Travail (CGT), and could challenge the government on the shop floor...

...The buoyant spirits of the honeymoon period notwithstanding, however, some Socialists wonder if 1981 will be different...

...The only immediate opposition lurks in the Senate, where a 160-seat Center-Right majority still rules...

...Initially, at least, Mitterrand's policies may actually aggravate these problems...

...Earlier this year one of Mitterand's closest economic advisers, Jacques At-tali, explained that the Left is betting its "socialist economic models" can deal with current crises more effectively than the monetarism of former Prime Minister Raymond Barre...

...Indeed, the French President and his Prime Minister have emerged on the Left when much of the rest of the free world appears to be shifting to the Right...

...As for the Communists, thebig question is how long they plan to stay in the government...

...In particular, London did not appreciate Mitterand's campaign complaint that Giscard "ceded too much to England" in the European Economic Community's negotiations...

...but since this relatively impotent body can do little more than delay legislation, the Mitterand-Mauroy team stands a better chance of achieving its aims than any Leftist government in modern French history...

...The ruling Mitterand clique constitutes about 50 per cent of the total...

...Barre's melange of austerity, a freer marketplace and a strong franc squeezed consumers without stimulating growth, the argument runs...

...To redistribute come, the Socialists intend to improve benefits for the disadvantaged while slapping new taxes on private fortunes and company profits...

...The real danger to the economy is not expanding the public sector per se, notes one analyst, for management autonomy will beretained...

...In the short term, this suggests thatas workers acquire more control there will be intermediate maneuvering to hold the economy together...

...and the far Left ceres faction, lead by Jean Paul Chevenement, has 12 per cent...

...To be sure, some observers have argued that foreign investors have overreacted...

...Friction between the party headquarters at rue de Solferino and the government?they are two separate entities, after all—may also threaten Socialist harmony...

...The Socialists will push harder for the North-South dialogue, too, and boost foreign aid from .3 to at least .5 per cent of the GNP...

...That is not entirely true, however...

...The Leftist parties, particularly the Socialists, respect the underlying themes of Gaullist foreign policy—preserving national independence at all costs and maintaining the French nuclear deterrent, the force de frappe...

...tight-money policies that have crippled the franc...

...To gain entry party leader Georges Marchais, who normally takes his cues from Moscow, had to put his name to embarrassing Socialist proposals on Poland, Afghanistan, European unity, and the Middle East...

...expectations remain high...

...Bold restructuring is needed to encourage investment and employment...

...This spring's solid electoral victory carried Socialist Party leader Francois Mitterand to the Presidency, an office that wields formidable powers over economic and foreign policy...

...A devaluation of the franc within the European Monetary System is possible, as are selective price controls (but Quiles insists that controls will be used "only in sectors where there is not enough competition...

...arms embargo on South Africa is likely to be observed, and weapons sales to "racist and Fascist regimes" will probably be largely eliminated...

...Every aspect of French life will be affected by the Government's initiatives, especially the economy...

...But apparently he decided that verbal concessions were a small price to pay for four Cabinet posts...

...New social benefits—like the government's decision last month to hike the minimum wage 10 per cent and lift old age and welfare pensions 25-50 per cent—will help the poor, as will the planned creation of 150,000 public sector jobs...

...Other policy shifts may continue assistance to David Dacko in the Central African Republic, yet reduce the French military presence there, strengthen ties with the Socialist government in Senegal, and give quiet support to the Polisario Front in the Spanish Sahara conflict...

...Direct worker participation in management, or autogestion, has been an important plank in the Socialist platform, although what it would involve in Gallic practice has never been clearly spelled out...

...agenda also includes measures to create new jobs, loosen up credit and stimulate investment, coupled with proposals for such striking changes in labor conditions as a 35-hour work week...

...The Communists say they deserve to share the fruits of the Leftist victory, because their support helped put the Socialists over the top...

...But antics of this kind have no more than nuisance value...

...French voters could have had little doubt that they were choosing a new direction...

...Mitterand meant it, though, when he complained during a visit to Washington last winter that the U.S...