The Danger in Iran

...Yet that temptation must be resisted...

...But the issues that have to concern us now are different from those posed by the aborted rescue...

...To put it bluntly, and in a somewhat oversimplified fashion, we are standing at the threshold of another Vietnam, except this time the situation is pregnant with infinitely more dire consequences for the United States and the world...

...Six months after the event and after the dispersal of the hostages, employing limited force can only be either an exercise in futility or a prelude to invoking unlimited force—that is to war between the United States and Iran...

...Although the wrong answer we gave then hurt us, it did not inflict a fatal wound...

...Since he failed, he is saddled with the responsibility for the failure and for its consequences...

...Finally, and most importantly, the allies would have to ask themselves-as would everybody else inside and outside the United States—whether this country, judged by the words and actions of its government, is still worthy of their trust and loyalty...

...So it is with President Carter's rescue mission in Iran...

...It ought to be axiomatic that an apparently very complex operation should not be attempted unless extreme precautions have been taken against unforeseeable accidents, so that there remains a large margin for error and what official apologists call "bad luck...

...Had it succeeded, he would be a hero today, almost assured of re-election, and never mind the mechanical breakdown of three out of eight helicopters and the details of planning the actual rescue of the American hostages...

...Besides almost forcing Iran, against its better judgment, into the waiting arms of the Soviet Union, this military action would not save the hostages, for we would have no leverage left for good or ill...

...were really playing chess or some other game whose rules are not generally known...

...It is almost unprecedented for a top adviser to the President to attribute his resignation to differences in political judgment...

...More particularly, our allies made common cause with us primarily because Iran outrageously violated the fundamental laws of civilized international behavior, and they are prospective victims of the very same violation...

...And its strength is certainly not diminished by the beneficial electoral results that can be expected from a successful military undertaking...

...Zbigniew Brzezinski proved his fanatical wrongheadedness in his enthusiastic backing of the Vietnam War...

...Why, then, did Vance take a step that would be of great gravity under any circumstances, and is particularly so within the context of American political practice...

...our relations with our allies...

...They are the same issues that have faced us from the beginning of the crisis: the return of the hostages...

...His abrupt cancellation is too reminiscent of similar patterns of Presidential action, followed by inaction or the reversal of action, to make one feel comfortable with the decision...

...Iran could inflict such a wound if we don't stop on the road to disaster...

...So, painful as further patience may be, it is likely that we shall have to wait for the fate of the hostages to be decided within the context of world politics, rather than Iranian-American relations...

...Aside from the opportunity of inflicting still another defeat upon the United States, the Kremlin would welcome the immediate opening to the south that assistance to Iran would provide, particularly since it would not have to suffer any blame for extending its sphere of influence without the consent of the victim...

...Yet while the conflict between the United States and the Vietcong could be localized through the self-restraint of both the United States and the Soviet Union, the conflict between the United States and Iran could not be so localized because the Soviet Union, a world power, would be actively engaged this time on the other side of the fence...

...Unfortunately, this gloomy analysis leaves little room for the salvation of the hostages...

...Dean Acheson resigned as Under Secretary of the Treasury because he disagreed with Franklin D. Roosevelt's policies...

...It ought to be axiomatic as well that such an enterprise, once begun, must be followed through to the bitter end, short of risks out of all proportion to the end sought...

...If and when Carter renewed the use of military force, he would have to do more than he has done thus far in order to bring Iran to its knees...

...These have been the most precious assets of the United States as a nation among nations...

...our future relations with Iran and other Moslem countries, especially in view of their relations with the Soviet Union...

...Then he thought we were fighting Communism, instigated and supported by the Soviet Union and mainland China...

...But no other official of first or even second rank comes to mind who resigned in this century openly claiming disagreement with the President as his reason...

...Napoleon would have won the Battle of Waterloo if Marshall Ney's Army had been at the place where it was supposed to be at the correct moment...

...and last but not least, our prestige as the other superpower...

...There may indeed have been a moment, up to Hans J. Morgenthau, a frequent NL contributor, is University Professor of Political Science at the New School for Social Research...

...With his departure, should there be a return to the risky, probably useless emphasis upon a military solution, at least some of our allies would have to ask themselves if they want to chance a military conflict with the Soviet Union for the sake of staying on good terms with the United States...

...The President is advised by a man who demonstrated IS years ago his lack of military and political judgment...

...The United States would then have to face a direct confrontation with the Soviet Union, which by aiding Iran would perform the same function that North Vietnam did for the Vietcong...

...Even if historic judgment were less biased toward success, it would be hard to mitigate Carter's association with failure in view of the mechanical deficiencies of almost one-half of the equipment and the mystery of the mission's timing, which could have a domestic political explanation...

...The Administration may be tempted to think that—in spite of the outcome of the rescue mission, or perhaps because of it—a repetition of the use of force, better conceived and more effectively applied, will free the hostages and thus solve everything else...

...The resignation of Secretary of State Cyrus R. Vance, tendered with the stipulation that it was to take effect even if the rescue was accomplished, illustrates the seriousness with which that temptation has to be judged...

...The President is under the influence of his National Security Advisor, no longer balanced by his Secretary of State's common sense...

...At the moment anyway, the United States has nothing to offer Iran in exchange for the hostages, or to threaten it with, beyond what has already been done unsuccessfully—short of an outright war that would spell disaster for all involved...

...William Jennings Bryan resigned as Secretary of State because he could not support Woodrow Wilson's foreign policies, which resulted in war with Germany...

...And he governs a people that is ill-informed, disunited and unaware of the danger to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness which the present world situation entails...

...Yet at present it has a President who is not only inexperienced but also obviously incompetent...

...Before that happened, Iran would look for support and would find it only in the Soviet Union...

...The President obviously received divided counsel on these risks...

...Secondly, Washington had assured them that any sanctions against Iran would be of a nonmilitary character, and therefore would not provide the Soviet Union with a pretext for intervention...

...Although it has reportedly been ruled out by the President "for the foreseeable future," the temptation to resort to this kind of violence must be particularly strong in the light of the popular support the ill-fated resort to limited violence received...

...Thus Iran raises acutely the same issue that Vietnam raised 15 years ago...

...A similar mystery surrounds the decision to abort the mission...

...Vance was a symbol of that nonmilitary emphasis...

...about 24 hours after the taking of the hostages, when such use of force promised success...

...It would, however, alienate the United States from its allies, who have been watching the movements of this country on the chessboard of world politics with growing amazement and despair, sometimes wondering if the U.S...

...But only Napoleon's failure and its consequences count, not his closeness to victory...