A New Ulster Initiative

...Paisley continues to demand a government formed by the majority party alone, effectively leaving Tougher still will be selling the package to the Protestants...

...The DUP, of course, also vigMichaei McDowell, an Ulster journalist, is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endo wmentfor International Peace...

...The DUP leader's acquiescence took everybody by surprise—not least the Official Unionists, who expected him to stand apart, as in the past, and help undermine the entire undertaking...

...On the basis of information gathered during the first round, the British will unveil a new political package at the upcoming second round of talks...

...At best, they may tolerate vague economic links with the Republic...

...Shortly before the British general election last May 3, her close adviser and shadow secretary for Northern Ireland, Airey Neave—who was known to favor giving the British Army and local police greater freedom of maneuver against terrorists—was killed in a well-planned car-bomb attack by a splinter group of the IRA...

...For example, they might make the guarantee of UK membership that the Unionists are seeking conditional on a Catholic presence in the government...

...But whether it can satisfy the SDLP by insuring sufficient Catholic representation and establishing a forum for the Irish Dimension similar to the 1973 Council of Ireland, is problematical...

...It was therefore decided that the first round of talks should serve to clarify for the British Cabinet areas of agreement and disagreement between the parties on such issues as the form of a future government—whether it should be cabinet-style, with safeguards for the Catholic minority, or committee-style, with proportional representation determining membership...

...Thatcher is ready to wrestle with the seemingly irreconcilable local politicians...

...Then, in late December, Mrs...

...Whitehall is thought to favor the committee approach...

...The Social Democratic and Labor Party (SLDP) represents the bulk of Ulster's Catholics...

...too much good will, the Conservatives— who have been traditionally preferred by the Protestants over their Labor predecessors—could twist the Protestants' arm a little...

...Having suffered the pitfalls of Ulster politics, the British are not making any predictions about the outcome of the latest initiative...

...The SDLP not only insists on a cabinet form of government with an adequate number of posts going to the Catholics, but that any new administration recognize an Irish Dimension...

...Mrs...

...When British officials succeeded in bringing the representatives of divided Ulster around the table, though, it became apparent that their original notion of quickly getting down to the business of negotiating a constitutional settlement was overly ambitious...

...Thatcher carry out her election pledge to increase the powers of Ulster's mostly Unionist-controlled town councils...

...she is banking on the Irish people to vote for some measure of "devolution," or home rule, over the heads of their leaders...

...If this presupposes the Catholic minority with only minor safeguards of rights...

...Should it fail, they note, continued direct rule from London through British ministers in Belfast may be the only answer...

...It is expected to resume late this month or in early June, and the hope is that serious constitutional negotiations will then get under way to resolve the bloody conflict between Ulster's I million Protestants, who favor union with Britain, and half million Catholics, most of whom aspire to unity with Ireland...

...Thatcher's Ulster Secretary, Humphrey Atkins, came up with a compromise that satisfied the SDLP and proved acceptable to Paisley, too: The discussion of relations with the Republic, ostensibly limited to economic and other European Community issues, would take place in "parallel talks" outside the main conference...

...His emerging as the chief Protestant representative at the conference should, in fact, contribute substantially to the DUP's vote in the next election...

...Although Paisley announced he would not attend the secondary meetings, it was publicly known that the reports of both conferences would be sent to the British Cabinet...

...On the same day, 18 British soldiers died in a land mine explosion in Ulster—the largest Army toll in the history of "the troubles...

...Knowing that many of Ulster's 1 million Protestants were unhappy with the the OUP's intransigence, however, Paisley saw here a chance to outflank his Protestant rivals...

...The Alliance favors a committee system with significant Catholic representation among the chairmen...

...The SDLP threatened to boycott the talks unless the "Irish Dimension"—that is, the issue of Irish unity or future links with the Irish Republic, ruled out of bounds in the working paper put forward by the British—was placed on the agenda...

...The "Ulster Question" has had a high priority on Mrs...

...THATCHER STEPS IN ANew Ulster Xl^itiBtiVC by michael Mcdowell In the flurry of excitement over the Zimbabwe agreements last December, another achievement of Margaret Thatcher's Conservative government was largely overlooked: After six years of direct rule from Westminster, the leaders of all but one of Northern Ireland's political parties, including the recalcitrant Reverend Ian Paisley, were persuaded to sit down together to discuss the prospect of Home Rule...

...The scenario then calls for these proposals to be further modified at the conference table, adopted by the British Parliament, and finally put to the Northern Irish people either in the form of a referendum or as the ground rules for an election...

...At the center stands the Alliance, a relatively small party made up of moderate Catholics and Protestants...

...And soon after the Prime Minister took office, Lord Mountbatten, the Queen's cousin and Britain's beloved war hero, was killed, along with members of his party, when the mainstream IRA blew up his yacht off the Irish coast...

...Certainly the disagreements are a long way from being resolved...

...The British hope that when presented with a complete package, the politicians will grasp the opportunity to compromise their differences while they are able to publicly disclaim responsibility for the deal...

...Consequently, the second-round proposals are expected to be pitched at trade union and church leaders, as well as politicians, in an effort to build a broader base of support for them...

...Of these, the Official Unionist Party (OUP) is the main Protestant organization, while Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) consists of the more hard-line Protestants...

...Thatcher's list of problems requiring urgent attention...

...Thus in November the British Foreign Minister, Lord Carrington, announced an initiative to bring Northern Ireland's four political groupings to the conference table...

...The conference opened on January 5 and adjourned on March 24...

...orously opposes any consideration of the Irish Dimension and, as if to head this off, it initially refused to join the parley as well...

...This would not be ideal, to be sure, but it might be the least objectionable course to all sides in the embattled province...

...The OUP, meanwhile, despite the ruling, declared the conference "a tool to promote Irish unity" and refused to participate—a stand it would stick to as it demanded that Mrs...

...Since the talks will probably run through June, no vote is likely to take place before 1981...

...Carrington's proposal ran into trouble immediately...

...More than 70 per cent of them are willing to accept Catholic politicians in a new administration, according to a recent poll, but refuse any mention of Irish unity...

...For Britain to insist on stronger Catholic representation in Ulster and future unity with the Republic would surely jeopardize any agreement...