Looking Ahead in Zimbabwe

...Politically, Zimbabwe will profess Socialism while it encourages private enterprise, particularly where substantial foreign investment is involved Mugabe has termed himself a "Marxist" in the past, as Socialists should, but his latest definition of his philosophy, "Christian Socialist," is probably as good as any Most African countries have a mixed economy under the banner of what President Leopold-Seda the banner of what President r Senghor of Senegal has called "African Socialism"-which means something different to everyone The Marxist economic element in the majority of African countries is the agricultural cooperative, permitting the sharing of machinery and the joint marketing of crops, especially export crops-in Zimbabwe's case, tobacco...

...Within a few years, the white population will probably number considerably less than 100,000, and rather than Rhodesians, most of it will be composed of individuals from many countries working on contract who will return to their own countries when their contracts end Zimbabwe could become a haven for white South African liberals, too...

...In all such matters, Mugabe can be counted on to move as gradually as he politically dares in order to project an image of stability to the rest of the world He will not be another Jomo Kenyatta, he is too intellectual and Westernized for that Yet like Kenyatta he will be a realist whose credentials, gained as the intransigent leader of the black nationalist movement that brought the white regime to its knees, will allow him to practice moderation without being called a puppet or an Uncle Tom...

...The one area where radical reform may come fairly soon involves the Constitution, which the nationalists feel was forced upon them by the British at Lancaster House last year Since his party won 57 of the 80 seats in Parliament allotted to Africans, and he has a working coalition with his rival, Joshua Nkomo, whose party took 20 seats, Mugabe is in a position to change the document Thus the 20 seats reserved for whites in the legislature will probably not exist beyond the next election By then, the number of whites with citizenship will be small, and their leaders will want to avoid antagonizing the black majority by asking for special privileges At most, two or three seats reserved for whites might remain, but Mugabe will probably prefer to run some white candidates on his own party ticket...

...The economy, weakened in recent years by warfare and by the whites' lack of confidence, currently faces the danger of considerable inflation African pay scales are unlikely to be brought up to white levels, but they will certainly have to be raised Jobs for the returned exiles and guerrillas will clearly be a government priority, and an African civil service, being relatively inexperienced, is sure to be larger and more costly than the present one...

...Mugabe is expected to nationalize the mining industry-notably chromium-if he can find the funds to do so, and to buy up a considerable number of the smaller white farms for distribution to those who have been working on them for very low wages But in announcing his first Cabinet, he has followed the East African pattern of having a white minister of agriculture and named Dennis Norman to the post...

...Russell Warren Howe a frequent contributor to The New Leader is a veteran observer of Afrkan affairs...

...But South Africa has always been more generous with promises and rhetoric than with real reform, and there is little prospect of an all-white electorate voting for the elimination of its privileges More and more forms of apartheid will disappear, political prisoners may be released, and the former League of Nations mandate of Namibia will probably be given its independence Yet as the Shah of Iran discovered, revolution comes not when a regime is rigid but when it starts to bend, when revolutionary forces begin to see the feet of clay beneath the mask of iron...

...Rhodesia was for all intents and purposes a "white" country, self-governing since the 1920s The governor was invariably a Rhodesian himself, and his powers were only those of a governor-general-like Canada's He represented the British monarch, signed the laws, and invested the prime ministers When Ian Smith made his unilateral declaration of independence in 1965, vowing that the country would not have an African government for a thousand years, he was merely adding the mantle of formality to what already existed As far back as the days when Southern Rhodesia-as Rhodesia used to be known-was federally linked to Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia) and Nyasaland (now Malawi), the settler state had its own currency and its own foreign policy The only important colonial link was the right of appeal from Rhodesian courts to the House of Lords...

...Just as Zimbabwe owes its existence to guerrilla warfare, so there seems no way for South Africa to achieve representative government except through a long and bloody revolution the repression will be considerable, and this in turn will increase popular resistance...

...Like most African leaders, Mugabe can be expected to play the East-West game in an effort to secure aid from the U S and Europe, especially Britain, as well as from the Soviet Union and China, the main backer of his guerrilla units Andrew Young is probably right, however, when he says that no country can match the United States' ability to offer Africa the technology it needs, and President Carter's strong identification with the human-rights issue in southern Africa makes it likely that Mugabe's relations with Washington will be warm...

...The hope is that this will encourage major white farmers to stay and insure that whatever transition of white farmland to black ownership takes place is accomplished with as much qualitative control as possible For many years after their independence, all the East African countries also had white ministers of finance Although Mugabe has given this portfolio to one of his closest lieutenants, Enos Nkala, his first minister of commerce and industry will be David C. Smith, a deputy prime minister under white rule The appointment is seen as an indication of Mugabe's desire to attract more industrial investment from outside...

...Looking Ahead in Zimbabwe BY RUSSELL warren Howe ZIMBABWE becomes independent next month under an African nationalist government?85 years earlier than Ian Smith predicted The country called Rhodesia now faces a process for which there is no precedent the rapid transformation of a white republic into an African one Kenya, despite its 60,000 settlers, remained a colony ruled by governors and civil servants sent out from London until its independence, moreover, the all-white areas were located on the periphery of a native society that defined the nation's character and would determine its future Even Algeria, although technically an integral part of metropolitan France, never quite equalled Rhodesia as a white bastion, and there the changeover at independence was total, with virtually the entire pied-noir (European) population leaving overnight...

...Over the border in Pretoria, after some churlish election reaction from Prime Minister Peter W Botha, the government has clearly begun to give some thought to what an independent Zimbabwe-seen as a mini-South Africa-means in the short- and long-run for itself The principal organs of the Afrikaans press-Die Burger, Die Vaderland and Beeld-have all published remarkably similar editorials calling for increased African participation in running the country and an end to most forms of apartheid These editorials, so totally at variance with the traditional line of the Afrikaans press, can only have been "suggested" by the government and amount to the first real fear of revolution to be expressed by the Afrikaner power structure...

...Entrepreneurs, including farmers, will be the most reluctant to leave, though much of the considerable economic aid Zimbabwe is expected to receive (Henry Kissinger once suggested a billion-dollar nation-building fund, largely from the United States) will go to compensate white farmers and others who are "bought out " As in Kenya the new African government will try to hold on to the bigger, more efficient white ranchers and farmers, and to white industrialists-but the bulk of future white industrial investment will almost certainly be foreign...

...What is happening at present in Rhodesia may well be a preview of what will one day happen in neighboring South Africa The statistics, of course, are quite different Rhodesia is smaller, is much less industrialized, and has far fewer whites (especially when viewed proportionally) There are no accurate recent census figures, but it is estimated that some 200,000 whites will remain in Zimbabwe, among them an undetermined number of newcomers who were attracted by Rhodesia's maverick image during the past decade and do not have citizenship Officially, the African population is 7 million, but a study of the birth-rate statistics suggests the number is closer to 10 million This means that whites will make up about 2 per cent of Zimbabwe's population, compared to 17 per cent in South Africa...

...South Africa, with its large cities and sprawling white suburbs, is much more vulnerable to "terror" campaigns than largely rural kenya or Rhodesia were-Algeria makes the better comparison In the end, as in Algeria, there ma\ well be a massive exodus of most of the white population, now nearing 5 million On whites ma\ be offered a ' European' in the Western Cape, the region around Cape Town where they first settled in the 17th century...

...Another major problem will be the integration of the present "security forces," largely commanded by whites, and those guerrillas wishing to remain soldiers The U S is expected to play a role in the training of the new African officers, and there is sure to be friction between them and the small group of African junior officers who served the white regime (Most of the latter will want to remain in the military in the expectation of attaining senior rank quickly) Mugabe will also soon need a black general for his Army and may have to borrow one from some other African country-perhaps Nigeria, which has a surfeit of them...

...Being landlocked, the new nation will maintain most of its economic and transportation links to South Africa indefinitely The African political parties of South Africa, still banned there, no doubt, will probably set up offices in Salisbury Nevertheless, the new Zimbabwean prime minister, Robert Mugabe, is likely to keep his postelection promise of not allowing the guerrillas of Azania (the African nationalist name for South Africa) to use Zimbabwe as a sanctuary This vow could be broken when and if a revolution breaks out in South Africa, but for the time being there seems no reason to believe that Mugabe will be less circumspect than the leaders of Marxist Mozambique in this regard...

...Most of them will probably not stay long, with those at the lower end of the social and economic spectrum-gas-station attendants, straw bosses on the farms, sales clerks, and the like-being the first to go This is not simply because their jobs are the easiest to "Africanize", it is also because they constitute the group least able to come to terms with interracial housing and schools and such symbols of the new state of affairs as a black police force...

...The titular presidency imposed by Britain partly because it resembles the British system, partly because Rhodesia already had such a pattern, and partly because there were two resistance leaders seeking the prime minister s job, will probably be exchanged for the usual African executive presidency And as with every African leader, Mugabe will surely want all the special powers once possessed by colonial governors The new Prime Minister starts with the considerable advantage of a huge popular mandate He won the election by a landslide for three main reasons First, his guerrillas did the lion's share of the fighting, while Nkomo, seeking British and American support, held most of his men back in base camps Second, Mugabe belongs to the dominant Mashona tribe, whose territory includes the capital, Salisbury Lastly, he benefited from the various kisses of death bestowed on his rivals—Ian Smith's endorsement of Nkomo as well as the clear preference for Nkomo of the British governor, Lord Soames, and South Africa's financial support of Bishop Abel T Muzorewa, along with the loan of four campaign helicopters (one more than the number of seats he managed to win) Mugabe's greatest military problem seems likely to be his fractious relationship with Nkomo, who turned down the largely powerless presidency and instead bargained to become minister of home affairs, a post that gives him control of the police Sybaritic and indecisive, Nkomo is nevertheless too much of a father-figure to Zimbabweans to be profitably humiliated In addition, he is the unquestioned leader of the Ndebele tribe, the nation's second largest, whose fiefdom includes Bulawayo, the country's second city It is important to Mugabe to improve relations with Nkomo not only because the Prime Minister would like to see his rival's party merged with his own, but because a disgruntled Nkomo in opposition would be a major headache, attracting support as the new country's inevitable growing pains increased...