Canada's Unexpected Election

...The Liberals and the NDP, buoyed by the poll, saw the budget as too good an issue to pass up...

...The Liberals are trying to demonstrate that the Conservatives have proposed policies inimical to the common people...

...In retrospect, it appears that for their individual reasons none of the parties was inclined to prevent a showdown...

...Alberta's tough-minded Premier Peter Lougheed feels the government-controlled Canadian price should be going up much more rapidly than it has been and had put severe pressure on his fellow Conservatives in Ottawa to comply...

...With the Opposition Liberal Party, headed by lame duck Pierre Elliott Trudeau, gearing up for a leadership convention at the end of next March, the quite reasonable assumption was that it would not force an election before having the chance to regroup from its drubbing in the May 1979 balloting...

...From most other quarters there was sharp criticism...

...One way to break this pattern, the government decided—following the controversial U.S...

...gasoline here, for instance, is equivalent to a U.S...

...The plan is intended to allay the fears of the citizenry that the economic costs of independence make it an unrealistic option...

...In the November by-elections the Liberals and the NDP each picked up a seat, giving them a total of exactly half the seats in Commons...

...The second aspect of Clark's energy troubles also involved his native province of Alberta, which wants Canadians to pay the opec rate for its oil...

...Soon, however, the new Prime Minister was done in by his handling of the country's very tough economic problems, and by his having to make hard decisions on energy policy that were bound to antagonize some section of the electorate no matter what course he pursued...

...The separatists also suffered a legal setback last month when the Supreme Court of Canada handed down two decisions on language that in effect prohibit Quebec and Manitoba from reducing the language guarantees of their English and French minorities, respectively...

...Crosbie saw several virtues in his plan...

...Other budgetary features included higher taxes on tobacco products and alcoholic beverages, an 18 per cent increase in unemployment insurance premiums, a corporate surtax, and one tax reduction—a small energy tax credit for low- and middle-income families...

...the Conservatives are trying to paint the Liberals as out of date and responsible for preventing them from carrying out the mandate they were granted last year...

...When Parliament convened in October, Clark formed a government based on his party's 136 seats and the support of five members of the Social Credit Party, a rural Quebec grouping...

...That sealed the fate of the government...

...On the other hand, Clark has not been noticeably impressive in office and in the rematch his opponent may look comparatively more attractive to the voters than he did last spring...

...First, he sought to devise a policy that would no longer require Canada, a large oil producer, to be a net importer of petroleum...

...SEfrARATISM TAKES A BACK SEAT Canada's Unexpected T^fecf iqti by har°ld m- waller Montreal Canadians were stunned by the no-confidence vote in the House of Commons last month that toppled fledgling Prime Minister Joe Clark...

...The same poll showed that close to two-thirds of the decided voters intend to vote no in the referendum...

...Although the price it receives has risen dramatically since 1973, enabling it to accumulate several billion dollars in the province's Heritage Fund, this is still far below opec's...

...What is certain is that the combination of the Federal election and the intensification of the referendum debate will make this a memorable winter for Canadians...

...price of about 76 cents per gallon...

...Nonetheless, it seems a reasonable guess that the Liberal Party and the NDP will score gains at the expense of the Tories and Social Credit—with neither of the two major parties emerging from the February election in a position to form a majority government...

...It was not an income tax increase, yet it had the equivalent effect of raising substantial amounts of new revenue for the government, thereby reducing the deficit...

...The document, they charged, was an admission that the deficit could only be cut by increasing taxes—and not simply by reducing spending, as the Tories had claimed during the election campaign...

...Not insignificantly, today the issues are different...

...The party has alternated between French and English leaders, so the early favorites to replace the Quebecer were former Finance Ministers John Turner and Donald Mac-donald, both from Toronto...

...There are even signs that hockey, skiing and the weather will be looked upon as secondary lo politics...

...The economic facts were known to him when he was campaigning...

...Furthermore, his determination to deliver on a promised tax break for homeowners meant coming up with a compensaHarold M. Waller, a previous contributor, is on associate professor of political science at McGill University...

...Part of the explanation for their defeat last May was a personal repudiation of Pierre Elliott Trudeau by many of the nation's voters...

...Party insiders opted for the second choice in the face of some dissension, and Trudeau succumbed to the pressure...

...it was defeated 139-133...

...Clark's energy dilemma was a dual affair...

...Whether or not Quebecers will be persuaded by such arguments remains uncertain...

...The interrelation of the economic and energy considerations was evident in Crosbie's budget, delayed because of difficulties in dealing with Lougheed...

...The referendum question itself, announced on December 20, is: "Do you agree to give the government of Quebec a mandate to negotiate the proposed agreement between Quebec and Canada...

...Among its many sections were seven that undermined the status of the English language in the province's courts and legislature in a manner plainly inconsistent with provisions of the British North America Act, Canada's constitution...

...In the midst of all the excitement regarding the budget, the no-confidence vote and Trudeau's political resurrection, attention has been diverted from the developments currently under way in Quebec that are perhaps more critical to Canada's future as a country...

...In November Premier Rene Levesque's government issued its long-awaited White Paper, entitled Quebec-Canada: A New Deal and bearing the subtitle, The Quebec Government Proposal for a New Partnership Between Equals: Sovereignty-Association...

...In these circumstances the Liberals would establish a minority Administration, supported by the NDP—a situation that would allow an orderly succession for the Liberal leadership in 1980 or 1981...

...The Tories believed that the Liberal Party would run a poor campaign because of the confusion over its leadership, the Gallup Poll notwithstanding, and would be blamed for forcing an early election...

...approach— was to give the oil companies the financial incentives to develop geographically remote areas like the Arctic, or to extract oil from geologically difficult sources like the Alberta tar sands...

...The rest of the timetable calls for a National Assembly debate on the question during February and March, followed by the campaign during the spring, and finally the referendum before June 15...

...Both parties clearly thought the Conservative Party would be vulnerable if it had to conduct an election campaign on the basis of the budget...

...Meanwhile, the Social Credit Party, whose rural constituents use a lot of gasoline, felt unable to support the budget and announced it would abstain...

...But then Finance Minister John Crosbie brought in his first budget, and 48 hours later the Administration came tumbling down...

...If the referendum passes, the government would expect to start negotiating the specific terms of independence with Ottawa along the lines indicated in the White Paper...

...This turn of events called for extremely careful leadership in a context of compromise...

...For a while they were most obliging, seeing to it that enough of their members were absent when votes were taken to allow the government narrow victories...

...In Parliament the Liberals and the NDP vehemently denounced the budget for betraying the average Canadian by seeking to impose an unfair massive tax increase...

...Social Credit was reluctant to face the electorate, but it was more reluctant to back the gasoline tax...

...Yet the combined opposition of the Liberals and the mildly socialist New Democratic Party (NDP) could muster only a sufficient number of votes to keep the government on its toes, not to oust it...

...In any case, 1980—not 1979, as he had said—will be his last hurrah, this time definitely...

...That left the Liberals with two less than ideal alternatives: move up the leadership convention to the middle of January, or prevail upon Trudeau to stay put and fight the campaign...

...The excise tax was coupled with an immediate hike in the price of oil, plus further planned increases of $4.50 per barrel per year for the next four years...

...tory tax or increasing the already large budget deficit...

...They were encouraged in their view by a November Gallup Poll that showed the Liberals holding a commanding 47-28 per cent lead over the Tories, with the NDP a strong third at 23 per cent...

...This prompts the analysts to conclude that even if the Liberals pick up additional seats, they have diminished their chances for a majority government by sticking with Trudeau...

...Coincidentally or not, since the publication of the White Paper the fortunes of the PQ have been in decline...

...Actually, at this writing it is too early to fully assess the effect of the budget debate and the defeat of the government on public opinion, which had earlier swung toward the Liberals...

...Essentially, the "proposed agreement" that Quebecers are being asked to sanction would establish the province as an independent sovereign state, tied economically by treaty to Canada on the basis of equality...

...Still, with February 18 set as the date of the election, the Liberals had to confront their leadership problem...

...The politically more controversial Quebec ruling arose out of the PQ's showcase language law of 1977...

...His decision in November to step aside was therefore considered a sound one...

...Retaining Trudeau may well prove a key factor in the present contest...

...When it was finally announced on December 11, it became apparent that the Finance Minister sought to raise taxes by over $3 billion per year, and that the main new source of revenue was to be an increase in the excise tax on gasoline from seven cents a gallon to 25...

...By the end of that period, Canadians would be paying about twice as much for gasoline as they are at present...

...National unity is not so prominent, there is the unpopular budget to argue about, the Conservatives can no longer blame the state of the economy solely on the Liberals, and all parties must take some responsibility for precipitating the election...

...After the '79 election, Quebecers began preparing for next spring's provincial referendum on independence—or sovereignty-association as the ruling Parti Quebecois (PQ) calls it...

...Nevertheless, he apparently underestimated their gravity and made promises he could not keep—notably to cut income taxes and reduce interest rates...

...Crosbie's proposals, it was said, not only failed to seriously tackle inflation and unemployment but would probably exacerbate them by stifling economic growth...

...Political analysts here note that the Liberals can be expected to hold their base in Quebec, but would probably do better in Ontario and the West if they had a new man at the helm—especially someone from Ontario, as was anticipated...

...Clark rashly stuck to his pledge to govern as if he had a solid majority, counting on the opposition parties to avoid forcing an election...

...In addition, it was expected to encourage energy conservation and thus reduce dependence on imported fuel...

...Claude Ryan's provincial Liberal Party has been the benefactor, to the point where a recent opinion poll suggested that an election held now would bring Ryan to power...

...But Turner declined to enter the race, and the other potential candidates had not really sorted things out when the Tories were defeated in Parliament...

...But when opec raises its price the subsidy increases, placing additional strains on the budget...

...The harshness of the debate made it apparent that the no-confidence motion the opposition always mounts on such occasions would be more than routine...

...There is speculation, but no evidence, that he engineered the crisis to re-establish his leadership...

...Since he had weathered earlier parliamentary challenges during the abortive two-month session, his Progressive Conservative minority government had been expected to survive at least through the winter...

...Smelling victory, the Liberals (despite Trudeau's having announced his retirement) and the NDP decided to pull out all the stops and bring in every single member, even the ill, for the no-confidence vote...

...Yet he is 60 years old, separated from his wife, with three young sons, lending credence to his insistence that he genuinely desires to retire from politics...

...The Supreme Court's declaration has been cited by Levesque as another example of the intolerable burdens the Federal system places on Quebec's efforts to express itself and fulfill its destiny...

...Together they had an absolute majority, albeit just barely, because there were two vacancies in the 282-seat Commons...

...Business interests, happy about the deficit reduction, generally applauded the budget...

...It has lost four more by-elections, for a total of seven defeats in three years, including two seats it had won in 1976...

...The other provinces did not agree, with Ontario leading the fight against Alberta and claiming too rapid and large price hikes would seriously damage the economy by fanning inflation and adding to unemployment...

...For several years the Federal government has subsidized oil imports to keep down the cost to the consumer...