The Agony of Reform in South Africa

...And Afrikaners tend to see the English-speaking whites as standing with the blacks on the other side of the barricade, threatening their religious, ethnic and cultural identity...

...The wages of black workers, while considerably lower than those of white workers, have actually risen much faster...

...But in South Africa, where views have been molded by centuries of white supremacy, Botha's ideas do mark a significant departure...

...This would be an important test of his strength—and an important step in the political self-education of the blacks of South Africa...

...An Afrikaner (Zyl Slabbert) happens to be the present head of the largely English opposition Progressive (formerly United) Party, but white politics continues to divide clearly along linguistic-national lines...

...If the percentages of total known world reserves are taken into account, instead of merely current supplies, the relative importance of South Africa is actually even greater...

...This concerns the four main ideological groupings of their leadership: The first is made up of the conservatives, who include many of the traditional tribal leaders...

...They already serve as the basis for the partially implemented apartheid scheme of "separate development" that sequesters the blacks in individual homelands, or "Bantustans...

...About half of them stop for bunkering or services in South African ports...

...Until then, tribal differences will continue to play conveniently into the hands of the white minority...

...It would be naive to assume that economic hardships could compel them to make a 180-degree shift on a basic issue like apartheid...

...Ideologically somewhere between the moderates and the exiles, the Committee wants Socialist black rule in South Africa and rejects all cooperation with the authorities...

...This, in turn, has intensified the frustration of blacks, coloreds and white liberals...

...His Inkhata Party, initially formed as a Zulu cultural and social organization, is now the strongest black political party in the country, exerting considerable influence outside its own tribal areas...

...Outside South Africa this may seem wishful thinking, at best, if not an attempt to sell a prettied-up version of apartheid...

...South Africa's 800,000 Indians (two thirds of whom are Hindu and the rest Moslem) are angry at the government for having removed them (and many of their shops) from downtown districts to segregated residential areas because they do not like being classed with the blacks...

...One key to South Africa's prosperity is the dramatic rise in the price of gold...

...On the contrary, soon after Rhodesia became Zimbabwe, nine South African nations decided to establish an organization for economic cooperation with the specific aim of lessening their dependence on South Africa...

...The bitterness of the 2.5 million col-oreds stems not only from the general discrimination they hope to abolish some day, but also from the denial of something they hope to restore, the right to vote...

...Both groups boycotted the 1977 Soweto elections...

...His program is stalled in Parliament, where Right-wing Nationalists (often called the Verkrampte, or narrow-minded) led by Andries P. Treurnicht, and two more extreme small parties, have prevented its passage...

...In terms of current political events, though, it is probably still another division of the blacks that is most important...

...The week of June 15 marked the anniversary of that insurrection, in fact, and the Botha government, anticipating violence, forbade all gatherings of over 10 people...

...Eventually, all of the existing and proposed homelands—occupying 13 per cent of South Africa and accommodating 80 per cent of its population—would become independent states...

...But it does not seek to achieve its goals by violent means...

...They call for the violent overthrow not only of the white minority, but also of the capitalist system...

...The Committee is probably the strongest political force in Soweto, the focus of urban black life, yet is weak elsewhere...

...They insist on a unitary political system based on the principle of one-man-one-vote...

...and in Western Europe, and to improve in South Africa, the pinch of disinvestment and economic sanctions in general will be felt less and less...

...Another division of increasing significance is the one between the predominant majority of black rural dwellers and the growing minority of urban blacks—who are better educated, better paid and, on the whole, politically more aware...

...Botha further envisions a "Constellation of the States of Southern Africa" —an economic and possibly political alliance of South Africa and surrounding black countries...

...Added income from exports has enabled South Africa to pay the exorbitant prices France and other Western countries charge for the airplanes and other armaments sold to it "under the table...

...Dutch-descended Afrikaners, who form 60-65 per cent of the white population, have yet to overcome the trauma of their defeat in the Boer War or their resentment at generations of economic and political subservience to the English...

...In fact, it is the politically explosive mixture of unfulfilled nonwhite expectations with the fears of conservative rural Afrikaners and urban white workers, who worry about losing their privileged positions, that poses the greatest danger for South Africa...

...this year they are expected to reach $11.5-12 billion, in constant prices...

...Their money transfers to families at home constitute an important part of their countries' foreign currency income...

...But there are no signs of willingness to join in Botha's elaborate plan...

...Eliahu Salpeter, a correspondent for Ha'aretz who appears regularly in The New Leader, has recently returned from a visit to South Africa...

...Before the Nationalists took power, coloreds could vote with the whites in the general elections, albeit for white candidates...

...Ultimately, the tribal states, the Community Councils and the white Parliament would create some joint consultative body to deal with matters concerning all of South Africa...

...The 5.5 million Zulus, for example, are a highly unified national group?far more so than, say, the Swiss or the Belgians, not to mention many newly independent African countries...

...The economic boom and the huge trade surplus also help South Africa to counter Western business firms' disinvestment in the country because of political pressure to force Pretoria to abandon apartheid...

...There are signs that the tribal identities of urban blacks are beginning to dissolve, foreshadowing the emergence of a black community where common color is of greater consequence than tribal origin...

...For as the Afrikaner becomes better educated, grows richer and takes firmer control of the country's political and economic machinery, he also becomes more self-assured, more outward-looking—and less afraid of change...

...Last May mixed-race students, protesting the inferior quality of their separate schools, organized a nationwide boycott that was eventually joined by blacks...

...It also provides industrial goods, transportation links and services—the port of Maputo in Mozambique, for example, is run by South African Railways—and jobs for hundreds of thousands of workers...

...the minority who reside permanently in white areas—as well as the coloreds and the Indians—would elect separate council with authority over all matters affecting their respective communities...

...So much so that they have frightened the more conservative sections of his electorate, forcing the Prime Minister to bide his time...

...Even Botha's half-step, however, has thus far been blocked...

...Meanwhile, the impatience of blacks and coloreds (i.e., Asians and those of mixed race) has started to manifest itself...

...The centrality of the colored population to much of the unrest shows that the problems of South Africa cannot be thought of simply in terms of white vs...

...In the case of South Africa's 17.5 million blacks, tribal loyalty remains the most obvious source of division...

...While such steps undoubtedly have had some unsettling effects, particularly where the transfer of know-how is involved, they have had little impact financially...

...There the blacks would enjoy full political rights, eliminating the question of black political participation in white areas...

...Indeed, whatever the ultimate solution to the racial strife in South Africa, it will have to take tribal identities into account...

...Buthelezi has rejected all government offers to grant independence to the Kwazulu homeland...

...In the end, it is felt, nonwhites will give up the idea of majority rule and accept separate development...

...South Africa already helps feed its neighbors by supplying them with large amounts of maize and other essential staples at subsidized prices...

...Clearly, the pace at which Botha overcomes the resistance of his own conservatives will be the crucial factor in determining the outcome of South Africa's race with time...

...Prime Minister Peter W. Botha warned his white countrymen that the choice facing them was a narrow one...

...the worldwide upswing in armaments—all these have increased both the total demand and the market value of South Africa's mineral exports...

...An all-out break with the country would mean moving the sea route 100 miles further south, adding 24 hours of sailing time for each ship that the West can ill afford—economically or militarily...

...Recognizing the right of blacks to live outside their "homelands" and tribal areas...

...But Buthelezi has indicated that he might run in the vote scheduled for the end of 1980...

...In addition, after years of industrial peace, a rash of strikes has broken out in South Africa —most recently at textile plants in Durban, a gold mine in the Transvaal, and in the Cape Town meat industry...

...Changing the "passport laws" that now severely restrict the movement of blacks—especially into urban areas, where their stay is dependent upon finding work within three days...

...We must adapt or die," he said...

...While the moderates refuse to cooperate with the policy of separate development, they are conducting their struggle against apartheid within the limits of the law and without recourse to violence...

...Although they now dominate the country's political life as well as its very substantial economic establishment, they still act as if they were engaged in a crucial struggle for the survival of their language and their Calvinist values...

...black...

...They are afraid that they might be as much a target of any black violence as the whites, but less able to defend themselves...

...The third group, the so-called "exiles," consider Buthelezi and the other moderates "traitors...

...In 1978 gold provided 34 per cent of South Africa's export income...

...At the moment, there is no sign that Botha or anybody else in his government is contemplating such a move...

...the constant increase in petroleum prices, leading to more oil-saving methods of production...

...On the domestic scene, urban blacks, coloreds and some tribal leaders have rejected the notion of separate councils...

...At the same time, working together with whites, eating in the same restaurants, going to the same theaters, will soften the hard edges of racial hostility...

...From a purely economic standpoint, this would benefit all the participants...

...The exiles include Communists and members of the Pan-African Congress, and help to recruit young blacks for terrorist training in neighboring countries...

...Whites point out, too, that if the enemies of apartheid believe economic advancement is the road to political equality for the blacks, boycotts and disinvestment hurt them more than anyone...

...The whites themselves are not homogeneous...

...Nevertheless, the Afrikaners (more than the English-speakers) believe there is enough time left to make Botha's plan, or some variation of it, workable...

...Defense-related data are kept secret, but informed sources report that the entire defense budget was paid for last year with the additional government revenues from higher gold prices alone...

...MOST REASSURING tO the whites, though, is the knowledge that the West has a huge strategic stake in the survival of a sympathetic South Africa...

...Coming in the wake of Balthazar Vorster's stern 12-year reign, Botha's words so aroused the enthusiasm of liberals and the fears of conservatives that neither seemed to realize many essential aspects of apartheid would remain intact: Residential areas and schools would continue to be segregated...

...They accept the policy of separate development...

...White South Africans, incidentally, accuse the West of hypocrisy for recognizing Swaziland and Botswana as independent tribal nations because they were relinquished by the British, while calling Transkei "a puppet state" because it was given independence by South Africa...

...Moreover, his generals—most particularly General Malan, the Armed Forces Chief with especially close ties to Prime Minister Botha—are telling him that a hostile black majority inside the country poses a far more serious threat to his future than any external force...

...South Africa exports some 700 tons of gold annually—about 60 per cent of the world total...

...Accordingly, he announced a 12-point program designed to modify the policy of apartheid that has been a fundamental conviction of the Nationalist Party since it came to power 30 years ago...

...The complete, permanent separation of races, based on the artificial maintenance of the superiority of whites, cannot continue in South Africa...

...The nonwhite population is of course more varied in its composition, and this is reflected in its responses to the policies of its white rulers...

...Terrorist attacks have also been mounting...

...Last year they earned $10 billion...

...As for raw materials, South Africa provides a large proportion of what the free world needs for its high-technology defense (and civilian) industries: 86 per cent of the platinum, 75 per cent of the gold, 58 per cent of the vanadium, 41 per cent of the chromium, 40 per cent of the manganese, 23 per cent of the diamonds and 13 per cent of the uranium...

...The major moderate figure is Zulu Chief Gatsha Buthelezi...

...The second, the moderates, are willing to accept cultural autonomy for the tribal homelands, but demand that they be otherwise integrated into South Africa, with full citizenship rights for their inhabitants...

...But these assets are hardly irrelevant to the chances of a peaceful solution of the racial issue...

...In any case, Afrikaners are nurtured on the idea that they have to fight a hostile world...

...They are confident that by sharing increasingly in the country's economic growth, nonwhites will realize their interest lies in maintaining the prosperous system...

...We may proclaim from morning till evening that we are with the blacks," a colored leader admitted to me privately, "but should the government give us back the right to vote, every black would consider us part of the whites—and they would be right...

...Today, their leaders loudly proclaim their solidarity with the blacks: The point of no return has been passed, they say...

...Allowing all races some say in the formulation of policies that affect the country as a whole...

...No sooner had the furor this caused died down than trouble flared in So-weto, the teeming black township near Johannesburg where an uprising four years ago left some 600 dead...

...Of course, economic prosperity, natural wealth and strategic importance do not make apartheid any less heinous...

...Two days later, police opened fire on a mixed-race crowd protesting outside Cape Town, killing two youths...

...Observers say that in a nationwide race among urban blacks, the Committee and Inkhata would now run neck-and-neck...

...But gold is not South Africa's only asset: It also exports coal, diamonds, uranium and a variety of precious metals...

...But his nonviolent posture keeps alive the hope that the South African dilemma will be resolved without widespread bloodshed...

...Botha originally agreed the protesters had legitimate grievances, but at a demonstration May 26 in Johannesburg more than 1,000 students and 53 church leaders (including two Anglican bishops, one black and one white) were arrested under the Riotous Assemblies Act of 1976...

...and the Immorality Act, forbidding sexual relations between races, would remain in force (although Botha has said recently he would like to "improve" it...

...Finally, there is the Committee of Ten, a self-appointed, unofficial body headed by Nthato Motlana...

...the policy of setting up independent black states would be retained...

...Abolishing "petty apartheid" practices, such as separate public amenities and segregated sports and cultural events...

...Except for the extremists, Botha hopes to satisfy his black antagonists by forming a federation of self-governing ethnic entities—some of them organized on a territorial basis and some on a group basis: Most of the blacks would be citizens of, and vote in, one of the black tribal states...

...His proposals included: • Ending discrimination in employment by abolishing the "job reservation" system, introducing the principle of "equal pay for equal work," and permitting the organization of black labor unions...

...As the economic picture continues to deteriorate in the U.S...

...This amounted to the most repressive limitation on political activity in nearly 200years.Thousandsofnonwhitestook to the streets anyway, and when order was restored, 30 were found dead, 170 injured...

...To a large extent, this is due to the economic boom that has set the country apart from most of the rest of the world: Taxes have been cut, the interest rate has been kept at 9 per cent, the stock market is bullish, urban property values have gone up as much as 50 per cent, and last year the country enjoyed a hefty $2 billion foreign trade surplus...

...But one need not inquire very deeply to realize that the coloreds (especially the better educated) feel culturally much closer to the whites and do not cherish the idea of living under black rule either...

...Among nonwhites, they are the best educated, and, on the average, the best off economically...

...At the moment, though, one senses less tension and uncertainty here than one expected...

...The banned black nationalist group, the African National Congress, took responsibility...

...Many here believe that all this will lead to greater flexibility among Afrikaners before dissatisfaction among the blacks reaches the boiling point...

...Each month, approximately 2,000 ships sail around the Cape of Good Hope, carrying 55 per cent of the oil and 25 percent of the raw materials imported by nato's European members...

...With the Soviet Union threatening Western lifelines and supplies in the Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean and Black Africa, South Africa's geographical position and natural resources have become vital...

...And it has probably the best trained and most powerful military machine in Africa, certainly south of the Sahara—with some 600 tanks, 600 warplanes, 250 helicopters, and 2,600 armored vehicles to support an active and reserve force that could, in an all-out emergency, be mobilized to a strength of 400,000...

...The current international financial uncertainty...

...So long as he maintains this position, the government's homelands policy cannot be implemented...

...On June 1, bombs destroyed two synthetic petroleum plants and one of the country's petroleum refineries...

...in 1979 this rose to 57 per cent...