Quebec's Day of Reckoning
WALLER, HAROLD M.
SECOND CHANCE IN CANADA Quebec's Day of I^cckoriiri^ by har??ldm -waller of drastic political change, especially of its possible adverse economic consequences, ran just as deep in French as in...
...The most likely forum is a First Ministers Conference??a meeting of the Prime Minister with the 10 provincial premiers...
...In any event, for all the flurry of activity on the Federal level, little of substance can be accomplished before a Quebec election is held...
...The referendum capped a campaign that began when the secessionist Parti Quebecois (PQ), led by Premier Rene Levesque, came to power in the province in late 1976...
...Not only did the Federalists sweep over 90 per cent of the non-Francophone vote, they even carried a slight majority of the Francophones (who make up some 80 per cent of the province's population...
...Ryan's evident disdain for the PQ's media-oriented campaign??he rarely finished his speeches in time for the late news??was ridiculed early on...
...Ever since the PQ victory of 1976, politicians have been obsessed with the possibility of the nation breaking up...
...The province has substantial representation in Ottawa, but Quebec nationalists argue that Montreal should be given the constitutional and statutory power to make decisions on singular matters that affect it...
...In his final major appearance before the vote in his native province, Trudeau promised to work vigorously for reform if the majority said "No," and adamantly refused to consider negotiations for sovereignty-association in the event of a "Yes" outcome...
...Notwithstanding this apparent desire for change??a striking departure, particularly for English Canada??formidable obstacles must be overcome before the country can return to normalcy...
...Canadians, both within and without Quebec, were frightened by the recent experience, and this should spur the effort to preserve the country's unity...
...SECOND CHANCE IN CANADA Quebec's Day of I^cckoriiri^ by har??ldm -waller of drastic political change, especially of its possible adverse economic consequences, ran just as deep in French as in English Quebecers...
...The decisive rejection of the PQ's soft proposal means that independence is no longer an immediate issue...
...Still, Trudeau may prove more flexible than he has been in the past...
...Surely O Canada has never been heard so often in French...
...But despite the discouraging polls that often suggested a "Yes" \ie-tory, and always showed his personal popularity to be below Levesque's, Ryan kept up his direct approach to the voters, indelatigably criss-crossing RENE LEVESQUE Montreal Federalist forces won so impressive a victory in the May 20 Quebec referendum on a mandate to negotiate sovereignty-association for the province, one might easily underestimate the seriousness of the threat to a united Canada...
...In a so-called "Beige Paper" published earlier this year, he urged additional decentralization of present Federal arrangements, with enhanced powers for all of the provinces, not only for Quebec...
...Independentistes have for quite some time constituted a particularly influential minority of the Quebec population, including many prominent intellectual, literary, cultural, and political figures...
...Should the Liberals win, the ensuing negotiations would be serious and have a reasonable chance of success...
...Having failed to put together a majority, Levesque will not soon be able to persuade Canadians that the people of Quebec are seriously inclined to pull themselves out of the Confederation...
...Now, though, they will be subjected to careful scrutiny throughout the country...
...Nor is the danger altogether passed...
...Indeed, for the first time since 1976, the Federal government seems willing to take the initiative and hammer out an agreement on major changes in the constitution??a process that will require many months of hard bargaining, and perhaps longer...
...As growing support for the Federalists became clear in the last few weeks of the campaign, they had resigned themselves to a narrow defeat that would still leave them with considerable political muscle...
...Thus the referendum proposed "sovereignty-association"??a unique blend of political independence and the maintenance of economic linkages??rather than out-and-out independence...
...The Federalists, whose forces were captained by Quebec Liberal Party leader Claude Ryan, pursued a plodding yet effective strategy of appealing to the grassroots...
...To allay these fears, the PQ adopted a gradualist approach...
...But Levesque is not obliged to call for a vote until November 1981 and he will wait for the moment he deems most propitious for victory??which is not impossible, despite the bitter defeat of May 20...
...Consequently, now that the referendum is over, a major reassessment of Canada's structure is underway...
...PQ strategists sought with some success to broaden this base of support by tapping the traditional resentment of les Anglais-Among French Canadians...
...When the count was completed, the "No" side came away with a surprising 59.5 per cent of the ballots cast...
...If the Federalist victory can be said to have been a triumph for any one person, that person was Ryan...
...Although it is often difficult to carry out serious negotiations at such gatherings, they may offer Canada the best chance to take advantage of the spirit of good will and conciliation that is so evident in the aftermath of the referendum...
...His proposals received a mixed reception in English Canada and, naturally, were rejected as mere palliatives by the PQ...
...Should the PQ be returned to power, the country can expect another period of tension, and possibly confrontation...
...As Canada gears up for what will probably be a protracted period of constitutional debate, it should be noted that there is no standard mechanism for carrying on deliberations of this kind...
...Fortunately for Ryan, the referendum campaign did not focus on his reform program...
...The solution to the dilemma would be to hold a provincial election...
...as late as the end of March several public opinion polls showed I he separatist "Yes" forces with a narrow lead...
...But ultimately they discovered that wariness Harold M. Waller, a past contributor, is chairman of the political science department at McGill University...
...In fact, the resounding "No" vote was hardly a foregone conclusion...
...Ryan, of course, is demanding an early contest...
...Public suspicion persisted, however, making it necessary for Levesque to further play down the idea of sovereignty during the campaign...
...Yet can a government that has scoffed at the Federal system over the years, and has attempted to secede from it, now contribute positively to a process of constitutional renewal...
...A major problem concerns the question of who speaks for Quebec...
...Over the past few years, Claude Ryan has done a great deal of thinking about the direction constitutional reform should take in Canada...
...For it was one of the ironies of the referendum campaign that Ryan made unusually strong statements from the Federalist perspective, while Trudeau hinted he favored concessions he previously opposed...
...Rather, they see it as providing an opportunity to reshape the relationship between Ottawa and the provinces that must be seized if another rebellion is to be avoided...
...Much therefore depends on the pledge of political leaders, from Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau down, to give this urgent priority...
...His premise is that Quebec is in the best position to determine how to meet its special needs??notably the protection of French language and culture, and of a unique French-Canadian identity...
...They recognize that last month's vote does not put an end to the separatist threat once and for all??especially given the secessionist leanings of voters under age 45...
...It was the key element in a long-term strategy to bring the predominantly French-speaking population to the point where independent statehood would seem both reasonable and desirable...
...The cooperation of the province is crucial to any meaningful reform...
...While the uncertainty and turmoil that would have followed an affirmative majority have for the moment been avoided, the problems that lie at the root of Quebec's troubled relationship to the rest of the country remain to be solved...
...The surprise was equally great for Levesque and his colleagues...
...Prime Minister Trudeau has generally taken the position that the central government is struggling to protect itself against the encroachments of provinces pursuing their narrow interests...
...The current provincial government's raison de'etre has been rejected by the people, he argues, so it can no longer credibly govern or purport to represent the people on matters of constitutional reform...
...In recent years similar demands for strengthened provincial power have come from other provinces, albeit for different reasons...
...Ryan's proposals are consistent with the attempts of past Quebec governments to enhance their power at the expense of the Federal government...
...On the other hand, there is no gainsaying the fact that Quebecers do feel considerable dissatisfaction with the status quo...
...the province and evoking remarkable outpourings of feeling for Canada even among French Quebecers...
Vol. 63 • June 1980 • No. 11
