The Birth of Zimbabwe

...The British talked about aid for the war damaged Frontline States—money to help with reconstruction, health and education pio-jects...

...The actual method of voter registration needs to be defined...

...There are two other aspects to Mugabe, though...

...admitted there were flaws in the recently adopted Rhodesian Constitution that had resulted last April in the election of Bishop Abel T. Muzorewa as Prime Minister, particularly in terms of the number of parliamentary seats reserved for whites...

...It appears, though, that at a time when American diplomacy under Jimmy Carter is suffering setbacks on virtually every continent, British diplomacy under Margaret Thatcher has ended a war on terms favorable to the West...

...Their differences begin (but do not end) with their very dissimilar personalities...

...He and his white Rhodesian Front partners seem likely to win a minimum of 55 of the new Parliament's 100 seats...

...But Mrs...

...Thatcher and her Foreign Secretary, Lord Peter Carrington, invited the heads of four Frontline States, Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania, Samora Machel of Mozambique, and Sir Ser-etse Khama of Botswana, along with the leaders of the Patriotic Front guerrilla alliance, Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe...

...The Lancaster House negotiations had much broader implications: Western Europe, the United States and Japan draw over 50 per cent of their strategic raw materials—copper, chrome, cobalt, manganese, uranium, vanadium, and diamonds—from southern Africa...

...Admittedly, everything could still blow up...

...Moscow, besides supplying arms, vehicles and aircraft, had for two years provided a contingent of military intelligence officers (GRU) to assist (some say, to run) Nkomo's Lusaka headquarters with tactical planning and operations in Rhodesia...

...At about the same time, increasing violence associated with zrpRA, the 13,000-man military arm of Nkomo's movement, further exacerbated the situation in Zambia...

...But above all, the Lancaster House process demonstrated that there is a place for the rule of law and fair play in a world grown increasingly barbaric...

...Second, and more important, Mugabe enjoys a limited appeal within his natural constituency, the Mashona tribe...

...Thatcher also knew that to end them unilaterally would court the destruction of the Commonwealth—an unthinkable act for a Conservative leader...

...And, most critically, it is uncertain whether the Front can communicate with and control its guerrillas living in the Rhodesian bush...

...The seats left will be scattered among splinter parties...

...With trade sanctions already lifted by nearly everyone, trade and investment will be stimulated...

...The way now seems clear for a working cease-fire by early 1980...

...In frank acknowledgment of southern African geopolitics, too, London set a course that minimized the possibility of heavy Soviet involvement...

...The economic effects were serious, and coupled with the shortages caused by the 14-year-old sanctions, it was clear the war could not be allowed to go on...

...Poorly educated, they are motivated by a mixture of fear and envy of the whites, and vague notions of the "liberation struggle...

...The election will be held soon, possibly as quickly as next February...

...It was in the course of this relaxed evening that Thatcher and Carrington Stefan A. Halper is a senior fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies, where Roger W. Fontaine, a previ-us contributor, is a senior researcher...

...Nkomo and Mugabe will be making separate calculations as to the influence of each within the Front, and the influence the Front might exert in Parliament...

...But the warning was clear: Unless an agreement was reached at Lancaster House, Rhodesian maize and South African assistance would not be forthcoming, and Kaunda's supporters would desert him...

...As the evening wore on, it became clear to Thatcher and Carrington that the Frontline leaders wanted "to be rid of the problem...

...The real authority of the British Governor General has yet to be tested...

...The GRU had also printed leaflets on how to succeed in elections by getting the "counters on your side"—in coordination with Nkomo's orders to move all ztpra units within 10 miles of the Rhodesian border...

...It is understandable, therefore, that the Tanzanian leader regards Mugabe as a genuine revolutionary, and appears to have vicariously enjoyed the battle he never waged...

...Peking had so far restricted itself to sending small arms, mines, rockets, and a limited number of MIG- 19's mainly to Mugabe's forces...

...Doubts as to whether it will remain united during the elections or decide to opt out of the whole business have been raised by the strong clashes between Nkomo and Mugabe that nearly ruptured the London Peace Conference on several occasions...

...Nor do the problems of the Patriotic Front stop there...

...The region, in short, is a dry-land equivalent of the Persian Gulf...

...First, he is believed to be a real "freedom fighter" by President Nyerere, often called the "Father of African Socialism...

...Substantial questions remain, however, concerning the transition period...

...It was in these circumstances that Thatcher and Carrington pressed the Lancaster House talks...

...The shape of the new government will depend in part on what happens in the Patriotic Front...

...In landlocked Zambia famine was overwhelming the war-torn population, and without access to the railway that runs through Rhodesia a quarter of the country's 5.6 million people would face death from starvation or from nutrition-related diseases within six months...

...That danger was made real in early November, when Salisbury declared a six-week food embargo...

...For the Conservatives, the birth of Zimbabwe after 15 weeks of arduous negotiations was a moment to be savored...

...Those words of Robert Burns, quoted by a Tory backbencher in high good humor, rang out over the House of Commons as Labor and Conservative MPs, one after another, noted the end of an empire—some with relief, others with regret...

...Rhodesian security forces had inflicted heavy casualties on the Front's forces—50-60 kills a day, plus air strikes and commando raids on guerrilla training and base camps that went almost unchallenged...

...Indeed, it is a measure of southern Africa's crazy-quilt politics that Johannesburg is the major source of Mozambique's hard currency and provides the management keeping the main port and railroads running, thus enabling Mach-el to survive...

...The economic strain was equally severe on Mozambique...

...Consequently, the ultimate question remains: Will either man continue to believe that competing in an election is more profitable than returning to the bush and to resuming the war...

...in fact, he was restored to power in 1964 by the British King's African Rifles...

...might be willing to assist and finally acknowledged, en passant, the prospect of Patriotic Front participation in new Rhodesian elections...

...Acting firmly regardless of the risk when necessary, and always with a finite amount of patience, Whitehall pursued a policy characterized by a willingness to work with both sides in Rhodesia without surrendering the basic principles of multiracial and democratic government...

...The pragmatic—some insist opportunistic—Joshua Nkomo is supported by Kaunda (whom intelligence sources claim is a relative by marriage), and receives assistance from the Soviets, Cubans and East Germans...

...For Labor, the passing of Rhodesia meant, ironically, the slipping away of a favorite whipping boy...

...Should Nkomo and Mugabe finally decide to stay, the best guess is that in a fair contest the country's first black prime minister, Bishop Abel Muzore-wa, will form another coalition government with white backing—thanks to the strong support he enjoys from the majority Mashona tribe, particularly from the women...

...The new Tory Prime Minister, in office since May, knew her party would not extend Britain's economic sanctions against Rhodesia, due to lapse in the fall...

...Moreover, the consequences for millions of Zambians would be nothing short of disaster...

...None did so more than Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, whose government prevailed where four successive British governments had failed with eight separate initiatives...

...Botswana, strongly democratic since its independence 13 years ago, was now swamped with 20,000 refugees on its northern borders and the spreading violence from the civil war in Rhodesia threatened to make it the Lebanon of Africa...

...the time was right for the Patriotic Front, too...

...And for good reason...

...That is why Western intelligence and defense analysts closely followed each day's developments as the British pursued the thankless task of patching together a Rhodesian settlement...

...They also expressed the view that the U.S...

...When the going got rough, Thatcher declared: "We are not faint-hearted pilgrims, we will not be deflected by a stony path...

...in addition, the future of strategically vital southern Africa had to be dealt with...

...Although the country was agriculturally self-sufficient before independence, internal and external warfare and President Machel's penchant for "socialism" have contributed to mismanagement on an epic scale, producing shortages, inflation and hunger...

...Because the USSR has the second largest concentration of mineral wealth, with over 40 per cent of known world deposits, an unstable or pro-Soviet southern Africa would have a disastrous impact on the free world's defense industry, particularly in electronics and aircraft...

...To begin with, a war involving one superpower had to be settled...

...But Nyerere never fought in the bush...

...Kaunda resolved the crisis by promising that Nkomo's forces would be reduced in size—he did not say how— and a week later felt confident enough to travel to Britain...

...Meanwhile, Salisbury had its own motives for wanting a settlement...

...Despite Ian Smith's participation in the new regime, the exodus of white managers and technicians continued at the rate of 7 per cent per year...

...Robert Mugabe, a doctrinaire Marxist intellectual who would fit easily into European university circles, is backed by Samora Machel, with arms and materiel supplied courtesy of the People's Republic of China...

...According to British and Rhodesian intelligence reports, all this led to demonstrations by frustrated Army officers and sparked a Cabinet revolt to replace the Zambian President on the eve of his departure for the London Peace Conference...

...It also showed a willingness to accommodate the interests and placate the sensitivities of the Organization of African Unity and the Commonwealth without groveling...

...The Patriotic Front is expected to take 30-35 seats, mainly from the minority Entebele tribe in the west...

...But it was not simply a matter of the British staying a difficult course, or a narrow issue of their accepting colonial responsibilities...

...For many of them the war has become a way of life...

...Recruitment was slowing down as well, and mounting tensions within the Patriotic Front had Nkomo's and Mugabe's followers battling over areas in Rhodesia both claimed to control...

...There would be no more opportunities to drone on about the legitimate aspiration of the African people suffering under white minority rule...

...If he stands alone in the coming election, his prospects are poor...

...The negotiations had their genesis in Zambia, at last August's Commonwealth Conference...

...The Muzorewa regime had been unable to obtain international recognition...

...Over the past two months the Kremlin had increased the shipment of arms to zipra via Angola, the fifth Frontline State, by nearly 300 per cent...

...The crucial event of the August conference, recounted during conversations we had with Britain's key foreign policy officials, was a dinner held at the old British Government House in Lusaka...

...No longer would the Socialists be able to talk of Britain standing impeached before the bar of world opinion...

...Peace and political stability would virtually guarantee a revival of the potentially vigorous Rhodesian economy...

...Then there was the concern in London and Salisbury that an ongoing conflict would broaden the commitment of the Soviets and their proteges, the East Germans and Cubans, not to mention their competitors, the Chinese...

...For some it is simply the status and mobility gained from being a "freedom fighter" and carrying an AK-47, otherwise unattainable, that won't be easy to give up...

...In very measurable and immediate terms, Zimbabwe next year will add 20-30 per cent to its foreign exchange earnings merely by eliminating the costly middle men used in the surreptitious foreign trade Rhode-sians were forced to engage in after the imposition of sanctions...

...The 19th-century mansion that was the site of the achievement, Lancaster House, had been used before to mark the transition from colonial possession to nation-state...

...After nearly four months of heated argument, high emotion and dire threats of walk out—even once a new constitution had been agreed upon—the necessary transition arrangements were accepted by all three parties on December 17...

...The Frontline States were not alone in their need for a settlement...

...But bringing about Zimbabwe Rhodesia's independence was vastly more complicated than previous transfers of power...

...Faced with this iron-hard dilemma, she was determined to persuade the Frontline States that a solution could be found...