Waiting for John Paul II's Next Move

...Along with quips about the "Polandiz-ation" of the Church (whatever that may mean), there is a real concern over the gradual loss of influence by the Italian cardinals—a concern not abated by the fact that the man who will replace France's Jean Cardinal Villot as Secretary of State will most probably be an Italian...

...Like the politicians, the Vatican is biding its time...

...Moscow, Pan-kow and Prague are apparently afraid that under John Paul H's pontificate the Vatican will be more vocal than in the past in defense of civil rights and religious freedom in Eastern Europe...

...Unlike his Italian predecessors, John Paul II has personal knowledge of life under a Communist regime...

...For them, the keynote is cautiousness, a reservation of judgment...

...A GAME OF CAUTION Waiting for John Paul II's Next Move BY SILVIO F. SENIGALLIA Rome After four and a half centuries of having one of their own in the Vatican, it took Italians a little while to get accustomed to the idea of a foreigner heading the Catholic Church...

...In 1947, the Christian Democrats and Communists joined forces to override Socialist objections, and had the Concordat written into the Constitution as Article Seven...

...In fact, the initial favorable reaction of the Socialists Silvio F. Senigallia reports regularly for The New Leader from Rome and Radicals to the selection of Woj-tyla was a direct expression of their hope that his origin would weaken Vatican-government ties...

...They were especially pleased because John Paul H's immediate brief predecessor, Aldo Luciani, was considered too much of an old-fashioned, paternally conservative parish priest...

...It supported Article Seven in 1947 for only one reason: to woo the Catholic electorate...

...But recently, following years of heavy pressure from the lay parties, Holy See and DC officials agreed in principle that the time had come to amend the article in line with the new political reality...

...Nor does it have anything to do with the former Karol Cardinal Wojtyla's defense of the so-called Church of Silence in his deeply religious Eastern European nation...

...Perhaps this is why the Catholic press has not yet offered any authoritative interpretation of what the new pontificate is expected to stand for and accomplish...

...These two documents, signed by Pius XI and Mussolinito insure, in the words of the dictator, "religious peace"established the territorial sovereignty of Vatican City and gave the Church a complicated set of jurisdictional rights extending to many areas of Italian life...

...He is friendly, full of bounce, dynamicin other words, simpatico...

...It is believed to explain, too, the warning in the Soviet weekly Novy Mir that the choice of a Polish cardinal should not be exploited by the West to sabotage detente...

...Even during the campaign preceding the 1975 referendum on divorce and the parliamentary debate in 1977 on abortion, the PCI carefully avoided any action that might offend the religious among the Italian masses...

...So it is hardly surprising that the DC fears his election might "widen the Tiber," as the expression goes—meaning, widen the gap between Church and State...

...Instead, it comes down to something much simpler: The Italians have found him to be an extremely likable person...

...Meanwhile, the Holy See's predominantly Italian curia seems as uneasy and as much in the dark as the Kremlin...

...It is the Church's attitude toward Communism in general and Eurocommunism in particular that will shape the PCI's judgment about the new Pope...

...Further, he is on the record as favoring a world-wide dialogue that would "include all those who are legitimately responsible for the common good of society"hardly the words of a "visceral anti-Communist...

...Consequently, his views on the progress of Eurocommunismon just how liberal, national and independent a model it is—will carry great weight...

...Now, with a man on the throne for whom Italian politics is perhaps not a pressing concern, Radicals and Socialists worry that a new Vatican-State treaty may fall low on his priority list, thereby perpetuating the Church's right and ability to meddle in governmental and political matters...

...Although the strategy was to no avail—the PCI was soon unceremoniously ejected from the post-war coalition Cabinetthis basic policy has remained unchanged over the last 30 years...

...He cannot be hoodwinked by dialectic legerdemain nor can he be accused of being a prejudiced, aristocratic old prelate indifferent to the plight of the masses...

...But among average citizens, at least, the doubts are gone: They are thoroughly pleased with the new Pope from Poland...

...For instance, the Christian Democrats (DC), who have dominated every Italian government since the end of World War II, are wondering whether their preferential status with the Vatican will be affected by John Paul's nationality...

...This, say Vaticanists here, explains the Kremlin's delay in commenting on his election...

...What accounts for their change of attitude is the fear that the 1929 Lateran Pacts between the Holy See and Fascist Italy will not be revised, as had been expected...

...And party Secretary Enrico Berlinguer does not wish to jeopardize his present compromise with the DC, which could pave the way for Communist participation in the government...

...The claims of some intellectuals notwithstanding, this affection has nothing to do with John Paul II being the son of an unfortunate country traditionally set upon by Germans and Russians (Italians are generally unfamiliar with Polish history...

...Rome's political circles, however, do not share the general population's enthusiasm...

...This made the Catholic Church "the religion of the State" and institutionalized its privileges...

...Such a prospect, by contrast, would greatly please the moderate Leftist parties—who have often denounced Vatican interference in Italian affairs and the clergy's open support for DC candidates at polling lime...

...Using an Italian colloquialism P. F. Svidercoschi, the religion editor of the Rome daily Tempo, observed: "Novi Mir is talking to the daughter-in-law to let the mother-in-law get the meaning...

...In other words, the warning is actually addressed to the Vatican at a time when Moscow is still unclear about the Vatican's new Ost-politik...

...Thus the curia, which after the election of the late John Paul I happily envisaged the continuation of the old order, is now facing a psychological as well as political adjustment...

...Nevertheless, a period of reappraisal has produced some second thoughts among the non-Communist lay party leaders...

...Wojtyla cannot be expected to have quite the same feeling...

...on several occasions he even mentioned his special devotion to "our beloved Italy...

...Moreover, shortly before the death of Paul VI—who, being keenly interested in Italian affairs, would doubtless have supported a revision a joint ad hoc committee actually reached tentative agreement on a number of issues, including education, the status of the unfrocked priests and taxes...

...The Communist Party (PCI), it should be noted, does not much care one way or the other about the Concordat's overhaul...

...This reserve, though, has nothing to do with personality: The politicians are waiting to see what concepts will inspire the Pope's performance and how he will interpret his pontifical duties...

...Dating from his days as a cardinal, Paul VI had been very close to the upper echelons of the Catholic party, and he maintained these warm relations after he became Pontiff...

...Until those views become known, the PCI seems determined to play a very cautious hand...

...Interestingly, similar caution is being exhibited by the Soviet government and other Communist regimes, albeit for different reasons...

...He knows what it is to be a worker and is no starry-eyed admirer of the capitalist system...