Standoff in Cuba

...Cuba may even become a major issue in the 1980 Presidential campaign, as it was in the 1960s...

...The question now is what to do about the Russians in Cuba The Carter Administration has chosen "quiet diplomacy," hoping that some face-saving formula will shortly evolve It is difficult to conduct quiet diplomacy in the middle of a political hurricane, though Besides, the Soviets do not appear especially willing to be cooperative They are no longer strategically inferior to us, as they were in 1962, and removing their troops under American pressure would damage relations with Cuba Moscow would be reluctant to take such a risk at any time, but especially now that Havana has proved its value by getting the nonaligned nations to accept an extraordinarily harsh anti-American set of resolutions -a matter of high priority since the early 1960s...

...Compounding the problem was the low priority Presider- Carter assigned to Cuba One of his first acts as Chief Executive was to end aerial reconnaissance The Soviets, meanwhile, despite claims to the contrary, were being no less secretive about the brigade than they were about installing their missiles in Cuba in 1962...

...Moscow has good reason, too, to wonder what all the fuss is about...

...Actually, it was Stone who triggered the latest Cuba flap He had been suspicious for months that something was brewing, and his concern was fueled by President Carter's veiled warning to President Leonid I Brezhnev on Cuba at last spring's salt n signing in Vienna -a warning largely ignored by the press, and apparently ignored altogether by the Soviets Finally, in mid-July Stone raised the issue of Soviet military activity on the island at a closed meeting of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee...

...Interestingly, it is the Democrats themselves who have sounded the alarm and pressed Carter for action On the evening of August 30, Idaho's Senator Frank Church, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, broke the news at a specially called press conference in Boise He coupled the announcement with a demand for the "immediate withdrawal of all Russian combat troops from Cuba," and a week later he stated flatly there was "no likelihood whatever" of salt being passed so long as the combat brigade remained in Cuba On September 11, Democratic Senator Henry M Jackson of Washington presented an expanded list of demands regarding Cuba that he insists the USSR must accept if it doesn't want the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty to go "down the tubes " That same day, the House adopted an amendment by Democrat Peter A Peyser of New York permitting the President to restrict exports to any nation violating the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, designed to prevent foreign intervention in the Western Hemisphere...

...At that time, Kennedy repeatedly scolded the Eisenhower Administration for its complacency toward the challenge of Communism in general and Cuba's slide away from us in particular The attack was effectively employed on the stump and on the television debates This infuriated Richard Nixon, who was mistakenly convinced that candidate Kennedy knew of the contingency plan to overthrow Fidel Castro with the help of Cuban emigres In 1980, of course, the political sides would be reversed, with the Republican standard bearer crying that a Democratic President's policies have spelled drift and defeat for the nation...

...In November 1963 , after the Cuban missile crisis and with Soviet-Cuban relations at a low mark...

...The U S has not had a similar reaction to Soviet activity in Africa or the Middle East-activity that is more dangerous to American interests than the appearance of an undermanned brigade in Cuba Nor did Washington protest last year when Soviet pilots and mig-23s showed up in Cuba, not to mention all the other military activity that is currently being conducted on the Caribbean island...

...But for the moment, at least, the conflict is between the White House and Congress And in the trenches below, one should add, between analyst and analyst Understanding that is important because it helps explain the torrent of sensitive information likely to inundate the American public in the coming weeks...

...Kennedy appeared ready to make a deal with Fidel Castro?Ca promising development cut short by the President's assassination in Dallas Subsequently, neither Lyndon Johnson nor Richard Nixon ever engaged in any serious negotiating with the Cuban leader...

...POLITICS AND The Standoff in Cuba by roger fontaine FRANK CHURCH Washington Nikita Khrushchev once observed that the United States should cope with Cuba as the proverbial Russian peasant coped with his live-in goat That is, we should get used to the smell without bothering to pretend we liked it There was, after all, no choice in the matter...

...Even after being forced to remove their rockets and troops, the Kremlin retained military advisors in Cuba who, after a decade of major effort, turned Castro's ragtag Rebel Army and militia into a modern, conventionally equipped second-rate armed force -good enough to serve as a proxy army in Africa and the Middle East, and to boost Soviet military and political capability in nations that are far from home...

...Yet we cannot complain that we were not warned In late July, after the Sandinista triumph in Nicaragua, an unusually garrulous Ramon Sanchez Parodi, chief of the Cuban interest section in Washington, said in a press interview that cooperation with the Soviet Union "will continue to increase in all fields including military collaboration " Asked if he meant at home or abroad, Sanchez-Parodi replied, "across the board ". Speculation in and out of the Administration about the brigade's purpose will continue Many explanations have been offered, although none are very plausible The suggestion that the troops are in Cuba to protect the "Big Ear" provokes the question Protect from whom...

...Then came Jimmy Carter The experience of previous administrations did not cast a shadow on his sunny belief that a modus Vivendi could be worked out with Cuba-as well as with such other minor league Communist powers as Cambodia, Vietnam and perhaps even North Korea Instead, the news earlier this month of a Soviet Army combat brigade in Cuba has dashed Carter's hopes, produced a political tempest on Capitol Hill and, worse, imperilled the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (salt II...

...My guess is that the combat troops cannot be separated from the Soviets' attempt to use the island for military purposes at a time of perceived American decline USSR soldiers in Cuba (I suspect a larger number was intended before their presence was uncovered) would give the Sandinistas confidence to pursue their revolution in Nicaragua, and bolster guerillas operating elsewhere in Central America More generally, Moscow's troops reinforce the impression of American drift and weakness around the world The point certainly was not lost on the delegates to the conference of nonaligned nations held in Havana earlier this month...

...It has also been put forth that the brigade is in Havana to protect the regime Yet if Castro is in trouble, no one has learned about it And if the troops are meant to replace Cuban boys serving in Africa, then why now and in this strangely "configured" brigade structure, which is a highly unusual military unit in the Soviet Army...

...Two decades and six Presidents later, the U S has not yet accepted the advice of the late Soviet Premier But no one, it seems, has come up with a better arrangement, though many have tried In 1961 President John F Kennedy ordered (or, more accurately, did not stop) the Bay of Pigs invasion...

...At the same time, Moscow has not neglected the island itself as a military asset in the strategically vital Caribbean In 1970, the Russians were caught turning the old Cuban naval base at Cienfuegos into a nuclear submarine pen President Richard Nixon with little fanfare got them to halt construction, at least temporarily...

...In the past few years the trend has accelerated Indeed, the magnitude of the USSR's presence goes well beyond its few thousand troops that are now the center of controversy, the Soviets have been upgrading their military and intelligence capabilities all around For instance, it has been public knowledge since 1977 that the Russians monitor U.S telephone and cable traffic from a Havana base (When its existence was disclosed, New York's Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan bitterly protested that we "are letting the Russians treat us as if we were Russians ") No doubt more sensitive intelligence will shortly be leaked concerning what New York Times columnist William Satire has dubbed the "Big Ear," and when that happens the current medium-sized flap may well turn into a medium-sized crisis...

...In the subsequent political uproar, Republicans were quick to charge a clumsy attempt to split the blame with the Nixon and Ford administrations George Bush, the CIA's director in 1976 and now a Presidential candidate, said he had no recollection of any Soviet combat troops stationed in Cuba Henry Kissinger flatly rejected Vance's contention, and so did Gerald Ford...

...Another Democrat demanding removal of the Soviet troops is Senator Richard Stone of Florida, long a close observer and critic of the USSR-Cuban relationship-and he has broadly hinted at additional Soviet military activity on the island Since Church and Stone are up for re-election next year, their proclamations are given a generous discount in Washington Yet while it is true that Church faces a touch reelection fight in a conservative state, Stone is not in any serious political trouble and Florida is not as conservative as Idaho In any case, their pronouncements should not be dismissed as arising out of purely political motives The Cuba flap raises genuine questions about foreign policy coordination between the President and Congress, about U S intelligence operations, and about American relations with the Soviet Union...

...The Cubans' The Americans' Not very likely Another possibility presented is that they are there as a "tripwire" to prevent any future American attack But the U S has shown little inclination to invade for years In addition, the Soviets clearly did not want their presence known-and an invisible deterrent hardly deters...

...Perhaps more serious than the political aspect of the affair is what it indicates about the difficulties of intelligence gathering, especially by technical means (and this could have unexpected repercussions on the Administration's assurances that salt n can be adequately verified) The truth is that Soviet troops, particularly the command structure, were difficult to find -particularly when they were not expected...

...Roger Fontaine, a new contributor to the NL, is a senior researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies...

...So once again, by a hit and miss process, Soviet-American relations are being tested, and the rules perhaps rewritten And once again the focal point is Cuba-the goat that won't go away...

...But Gerald Ford did Conversations between Cuban and American officials went on for nearly a year in odd, out-of-the-way places, only to end abruptly with the build-up of Havana's forces in Angola...

...The responses to his queries prompted him a few days later to send a letter to Carter Stone reminded the President that in return for support on the Panama Canal treaty, Carter had promised him to "oppose any efforts, direct or indirect, by the Soviet Union to establish military bases in the Western Hemisphere ". The President detailed Cyrus Vance to reply In his letter, the Secretary of State reassured Stone that "there is no evidence of any substantial increase of the Soviet military presence over the past several years " Although Stone says that he does not believe he was lied to, he has called Vance's response "wrong," "incorrect," and "inappropriate " By inappropriate he clearly means that he did not expect a quick answer when the situation appeared to be so fluid Yet that is what the State Department gave him, without any hint that a reassessment was well under way-a reassessment that would come to an entirely different set of conclusions...

...Beyond the intelligence question lies the much larger matter of the Soviet Union's use of Cuba to improve its strategic position vis-a-vis the United States The process has been going on for 20 years, so we should not be surprised that the Moscow has taken advantage of Havana's loyalty and dependence, and that their military relationship has grown It began in 1960 with the first shipment of arms This was soon followed by Khrushchev s pledge to send "rocket weapons" in a "figurative sense' to the Cubans-a commitment that Fidel Castro translated as real rockets, much to the annoyance of the Russians Still, two years later, in the wake of the Bay of Pigs, the Soviets for the first time placed medium range missiles on foreign soil, and protected them with 20,000 troops...

...When Senator Church broke the story in Boise, the Administration attempted to "low key" it State Department spokesman Hodding Carter admitted the existence of a Russian combat force, then added that "as currently configured and supported [it] poses no threat to the United States " But five days later Secretary Vance, at his first press conference in three months, officially made the brigade "a matter of serious concern " He also got the Administration into some hot water by claiming that it may have been in Cuba since the mid-1970s, and "that elements may have been there since the early 1970s, and possibly before that " This of course, was a 180 degree reversal from the position that Vance had adopted a little more than a month before...