Correspondents' Correspondence

...Recently, however, the mood has changed, prompting the Prime Minister to dissolve the Diet and call for national elections on October 7 The move, part of Ohira's strategy to solidify his power and strengthen the new consensus, was not unexpected It will probably have the effect of decimating whatever support remains for Fukuda At the same time, it should reduce Japan's token opposition, the Socialists and the Communists, to little more than tedious speechmakers...

...In all his maneuvering, Ohira seems to realize that he must move quickly to offset yet another danger-a Rightist reaction that might plunge Japan into the pattern of a generation or two ago His advisers believe he has just enough time now to entrench himself and head off the rise of a leader capable of galvanizing a public frightened by the specter of economic malaise and military weakness -Donald Kirk...

...There are two major reasons for the developing consensus First is the populace's growing feeling that a unified front is needed against rising prices and the persistent threat of an oil shortage While President Carter was beset by protest when he proclaimed gasless Sundays, Ohira won unquestioning acquiesence, in the Japanese style Without having to issue any edicts, the government persuaded 95 per cent of the nation's gas stations to shut down on Sundays and holidays merely by issuing guidelines...

...Over the past year both groups have suffered disastrous electoral setbacks in their traditional strongholds, including Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto It was from these urban bases that their strategists had envisioned an assault on the central government backed by national labor unions, especially the formidable teachers' organizations Now the Socialist and Communist leaders appear incapable of welding their own coalition-and are losing their support in labor (The LDP has always counted on the farmers, conservatives who inevitably repay farm subsidies and protective tariffs and quotas by voting for the party, particularly for those leaders most likely to keep delivering what they want...

...Thus, besides confirming Ohira's still tenuous holds over the LDP, the October elections could give the party control of every key committee m the Diet One recent poll, for instance, showed that 52 per cent of the respondents now favored the LDP, as opposed to 36 per cent for all the other parties Several years ago, the figures were 46 and 48 per cent, respectively...

...Yet Ohira inherited an organization that had been highly factionalized since 1972, when Eisaku Sato resigned First Kakuei Tanaka clung to power for two years until he was forced out in a series of 1974 scandals involving political funding, one of the deeper mysteries of Japanese politics Takeo Miki then ruled on an interim basis until Fukuda knocked him out in what appeared to be a decisive downward turn in the fortunes of the conservative LDP There was even talk of a new coalition emerging, with at least one LDP faction uniting with the distant-second-ranking Japan Socialist Party Political analysts were wont to speculate on the possibilities of Japan's "turning left" in a great upheaval that might also portend the end of the Japanese-American alliance The ease with which Ohira dumped Fukuda seemed only to demonstrate continuing LDP unrest...

...Correspondents' Correspondence BRIEF TAKEOUTS OF MORE THAN PERSONAL INTEREST FROM LETTERS AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS RECEIVED BY THE EDITORS Japanese Consensus Tokyo-Probably no other major industrialized country functions so rigorously on a politics of consensus as does Japan Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira talks often about the phenomenon, and now he is seeking a consensus on his own position as national leader In the December 1978 election, Ohira upset Takeo Fukuda as head of the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP), thereby automatically replacing him as prime minister, too, since the LDP controls both houses of the Diet...

...Second is the sense here of being surrounded by enemies This time the primary foe is the Soviet Union, which the Japanese Defense Agency openly fingers as the enemy in a war that the more outspoken military figures believe is not far off Underlying the present fear is the belief that the United States would not live up to its treaty obligations-leaving Japan to fight, alone, as it had to in the 1920s and '30s...