The New Man in Canada
WALLER, HAROLD M.
FACING A HOUSE DIVIDED The New Man in Canada by harold m. waller JOE CLARK Montreal The outcome of Canada's May 22 Federal election for the House of Commons was predictable. Pierre Elliott...
...He has promised, first of all, to eliminate some 60,000 public service jobs (a pledge that probably cost him two seats in Ottawa constituencies populated by civil servants...
...Consequently, this election hardly means the end of the separatist threat...
...As for relations with the United States, they should continue to improve...
...While Clark is not the commanding presence that Trudeau was, he will have an able if unspectacular team backing him up...
...five from the Atlantic provinces...
...This shift, it is argued, more than merely changes the locale of the struggle: It robs Levesque of the ability to portray the independence issue as one of "us vs...
...On the other hand, many observers regard the new Prime Minister as a weak leader who is not up to the task of coping with the wily Levesque...
...Should Clark see such a trend developing, he will be sorely tempted to call a new election in the hope of duplicating John Diefenbaker's 1957-58 feat of converting a narrow minority government into a strong majority one...
...The Prime Minister would prefer to devote most of his efforts to the formidable economic challenges the country faces...
...He might, for example, be able to devise proposals for a redivision of power within the Federal system that would satisfy Quebec short of secession...
...At the same time, the PC—having won only two of 75 seats in Quebec?is hardly a national party...
...Trudeau was somewhat flamboyant, quite intellectual and a very strong personality with clear leadership qualities...
...Although Clark's margin of victory effectively eliminated the threat of Trudeau retaining power by entering into a coalition with the New Democrats, it is too small for a parliamentary majority...
...Trudeau had overstayed the customary four years of his third term by nearly a year, hoping against hope that somehow he could turn this situation around, but finally the five-year legal limit compelled him to call the election...
...When he took a specific stand he was often burned badly...
...for the other two, Clark was forced to reach into the ranks of the Senate, an appointed body...
...Controlling none of the 10 provincial governments, the Liberals faced the contest knowing that there was great antipathy toward them and their leader in large parts of the country...
...In 1974, for instance, the Liberals took over 60 per cent of the seats in Ontario...
...It has greatly angered the Arab nations, who are making threatening noises about taking economic action and are pressuring Canadian businessmen to pressure Clark...
...Although there has been progress recently on fisheries, an oil pipeline and trade, several outstanding conflicts remain.They involve theU.S...
...It would appear, therefore, that the vote can be seen as a ringing endorsement of the federalist cause...
...four from the prairie provinces...
...In the area of international affairs, no significant departures by the Tories are likely...
...He was studiously vague on most issues during the campaign...
...15.-Can.$16.—For.$17...
...In the case of the distribution of seats in Parliament, Quebec will be very isolated from the central government...
...And there will certainly be a change of players as well as a change of emphasis in government, but there are few portents of drastic changes in Canadian life...
...And this is reflected in the makeup of Clark's Cabinet...
...On the other hand, a promise to imitate American tax law by making part of the mortgage interest and property taxes on private homes deductible from income proved very popular in places like Ontario...
...Clark is less likely to be out front, is more pragmatic, is not a deep thinker on political issues, and will not generate strong positive or negative feelings...
...On road level, one can expect a Clark government to be oriented toward business, to rely heavily on people with business connections and to be sensitive to middle-class concerns...
...This could make him more flexible and hence more successful in dealing with Quebec...
...New York, NY...
...The Conservatives were never able to overcome their inability to strike roots in Quebec...
...Or he might agree to a plan that would accord the mainly French province some special status within Canada...
...But only months after Trudeau declared in 1976 that separatism was dead, his fellow Quebeckers opted for the Party Que-becois (PQ)—which is committed to independence—in the provincial election...
...With regard to the vote itself, Quebeckers increased their support for the highly federalist Liberals by 8 per cent, to about 62 per cent...
...In the meantime, the new Prime Minister has challenged the other parties by promising to govern as if he actually had a majority...
...10010 though he seems to prefer a gradual shift of power away from Ottawa and toward the provinces...
...For most of this century the Liberals have controlled the government because their firm Quebec base, combined with moderate strength in other provinces, made them the single genuinely national party...
...Pierre Elliott Trudeau's 11-year-old Liberal Administration had long been running out of steam, lacked talented personalities (except the Prime Minister himself), and was bereft of new ideas...
...In sharp contrast to Trudeau's passion for a vigorous central government, Clark is not identified with any hard and fast constitutional position, THE NEW LEADER Subscriber's Service Coupon When writing about your subscription lor: CHANGE OF ADDRESS RENEWAL ADJUSTMENTS Please attach your mailing label lor efficient service To renew your subscription check below: ( ) I yr.—U.S...
...As the pollsters had predicted throughout the two-month campaign, the winner was the Progressive Conservative Party (PC), headed by Joe Clark of Alberta...
...Yet he cannot escape the persistent spectre of Quebec secession and the attendant need to work out a constitutional solution that can unite an extremely diverse and fragmented polity...
...Further, it comes at a time when the PQ leader has been made to look foolish by his ineffective support of the Social Credit Party, and when Ryan's revitalized provincial Liberals offer a credible alternative to a PQ administration that seems less confident than it was before the national election...
...So long as he was able to hold the country together, a lot of English Canadians were willing to put up with him despite their objections to many of his policies...
...Clark also has to find revenue or cut spending to finance homeowner relief...
...The absence of a national party has virtually determined the agenda of both the Liberals and the Conservatives...
...Harold M. Waller, a past contributor, is associate professor of political science at McGill University...
...I enclose $_ ATTACH ADDRESS LABEL HERE ( ) Change address to: ( ) Renew subscription for: NAME?Please print STREET ADDRESS CITY STATE ZIP CODE Moil to: THE NEW LEADER 212 Filth Avenue...
...Unless he shows strong signs of recovering his popularity in English Canada, he will probably be replaced with someone from that part of the country...
...Of the 29 ministers, 12 are from Ontario...
...border television stations, a treaty facilitating the movement of automobiles and parts across the border, the planned nationalization of a U.S.-owned asbestos company by the Quebec government, and the increasing U.S...
...thirst for Canadian oil and gas...
...If there is any underlying theme to his economic policy, then, it is the encouragement of individual initiative and the private sector and the reduction of state intervention...
...Yet by 1979 the Liberals had lost so much support in Ontario and the West that the Tories could win a plurality in Parliament...
...Whoever leads the party into the next election, though, will be faced with the same task: rebuilding an organization that has almost ceased to exist west of Ontario on either the Federal or provincial level...
...Meanwhile the Conservatives, excited about wielding power for the first time since 1963, will be trying to attract Quebeckers with the argument that they should choose enough Tory MPs to give the PC a truly national mandate...
...three from British Columbia...
...After much soul-searching, apparently, they could find no compelling answers, and started transferring their allegiance from the Liberals to the Conservatives...
...The policies Clark will pursue remain a question mark...
...Just as there are conflicting opinions on how Clark's personal qualities will affect the national unity question, so there are disparate interpretations on what the election results bode for Canada's future...
...Losing to the Liberals in the popular vote 40-36 per cent, the Tories nevertheless won 135 places?0 more than the Liberals—in the 282-seat Commons...
...The Social Credit Party—despite open backing from the PQ—did poorly...
...But the issue that provided the biggest foreign policy flap of the campaign, Clark's promise to move the Canadian embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, continues to stir controversy...
...Moreover, he will have to accomplish this without losing the Liberals' traditional base in Quebec...
...His hope is that his conciliatory attitude will produce greater results both at home and abroad than Trudeau's frequently abrasive and insulting manner...
...Second, the large budget deficit—much greater proportionately than America's—will act as a constraint on Clark's plan for stimulative deficit policies and keep him from embarking on any costly programs...
...While Trudeau will continue to head the Liberals at present, they will shortly initiate a reevaluation of his leadership...
...and a scant four from Quebec, which has about a quarter of Canada's total population...
...And the overtly separatist Union Populaire received only about 1 per cent...
...Yet, for reasons that have never been quite clear, Quebeckers are capable of a great deal of logical inconsistency between their positions in national and provincial contests...
...Two of these members are Quebec's Conservative MPs...
...Instead, he will try to curb spending, and thereby reduce taxes somewhat...
...law limiting tax deductability on expenses incurred attending foreign conventions, the Canadian law eliminating tax deductibility of advertising costs for commercials on U.S...
...Predictably, he promised to reduce inflation and unemployment—both urgent problems for Canada—spur economic growth, curtail government spending, cut taxes, etc...
...Ever since taking over his party's leadership, in fact, his relative blandness has been theobject of agood deal of derisive humor, much of it probably unfair...
...Thus his announcement that he did not recognize Quebec's right to secede gained him considerable enmity in that province—where it is apparently all right to support federalism so long as one also proclaims that Quebec can leave the federation...
...one from the northern territories...
...The Prime Minister must formulate a policy fairly quickly, particularly since the PQ decided early this month to hold a provincial referendum on what it disingenuously refers to as "sovereignty-association," and this will probably take place by the middle of 1980 at the latest...
...So far at least, the Prime Minister has remained firm...
...The beginning of the end for Trudeau came with the upsurgeof the Quebec independence movement...
...As a result, English Canadians throughout the nation began to ask themselves why Trudeau should be kept in if he was incapable of keeping Quebec Premier Rene Levesque and the PQ out...
...It is expected, therefore, that this Conservative government will have a fairly short life span, and that new elections will be held within two years...
...His main virtue, once the excitement of Tru-deaumania wore off, had always been his strong stand on national unity, his reputation as a bulwark against the Quebec secessionists...
...Washington will have to get used to the new Prime Minister's low-keyed approach...
...The most pressing issue facing Clark, however, is not the economy but Quebec...
...2 yrs.-U.S.$28.-Can.$30.-For.$32...
...last month, the Tories took exactly 60 per cent...
...them...
...Levesque and company see this working to their advantage, for they will be able to claim the election demonstrates that English Canada and French Canada really have little in common and would be better off going their separate ways...
...Add to this the corroborating view that English Canadians showed they do not care much about unity by abandoning the one party with a Quebec connection, and the country seems a step closer to formal division...
...A less bleak analysis notes that with Trudeau off center stage, the fight for the maintenance of the Canadian federation will now be waged not in Ottawa but in Quebec itself—between Lev-esque's separatists and the federalist forces headed by Quebec Liberal Party leader Claude Ryan...
...Finally, he has promised to sell the government-owned oil company, PetroCanada, to private interests, but political pressures and the exigencies of minority government may force him to reconsider...
...the sectional Social Credit Party in Quebec managed 4.5 per cent and six seats...
...Judging from the way they voted last month, many sectors of the Canadian public evidently share that hope...
...The democratic socialist New Democratic Party took 18 per cent of the ballots and captured 26 seats...
Vol. 62 • June 1979 • No. 13
