Correspondents' Correspondence
ORNSTEIN, NORMAN J.
Correspondents' Correspondence BRIEF TAKEOUTS OF MORE THAN PERSONAL INTEREST FROM LETTERS AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS RECEIVED BY THE EDITORS. Lancegate Washington—It is not difficult to see why...
...After all, "Lancegate," as Republican critics like to refer to it, dominated the news last August and September, and the central figure himself still seems to pop up in the papers every week, flaunting his continuing close ties to President Carter...
...But when such men see a respected counterpart skewered on national TV, and forced to bare his personal and financial affairs, the lure of public service begins to fade for them...
...In a striking departure from past patterns, no "rebound" occurred in 1976...
...In an era when political scandals have become more important than political issues, there is every reason to believe that Lance will prove harmful to the Democrats in November...
...In most off-year elections, this roadblock to Republican recruitment would be of passing importance...
...To cite one example, 1966 was a banner year for the GOP, with gains of nearly 50 seats in the House because an intensive effort (led by private citizen Richard M. Nixon) attracted a large number of impressive candidates...
...The Watergate year of 1974 saw the GOP share of the House drop to 33 per cent, of the Senate to 38 per cent...
...Norman J. Ornstein...
...So 1978 may be a watershed: With the overwhelming advantages of incumbency increasing, the Republican minority most either expand to a respectable level, or remain indefinitely at its current low...
...In short, 50-100 formerly solid Republican House seats could be lost for a generation or more...
...But the chances of success clearly depend on the quality of its candidates...
...By contrast, 1976 was a mediocre recruiting year, and the Republicans reaped only disappointment...
...And if this year of high expectations turns out no better, the GOP—And William Safire—may have Bert Lance to blame...
...This not to suggest that the GOP is in a wholly hopeless position...
...Lacking a firm foothold in any branch of the government, its future health, if not survival, depends on making significant gains in Congress...
...Lancegate Washington—It is not difficult to see why William Safire's judgement that the Bert Lance affair will win Republicans an extra 20 House seats this fall has become the conventional wisdom...
...The logic behind this prediction runs as follows: While there has been a nascent move in the GOP to recruit "blue collar" candidates for Congress, the far more typical Republican strong challenger is a successful businessman or banker—in other words, a "Lance type...
...Indeed, it has reasonable shots at a number of House and Senate seats now held by Democrats, and the Republican performance in the handful of special elections held in 1977 demonstrated the party's potential...
...But it is occurring at a particularly crucial time for the party...
...the Republicans did not regain a single seat...
...Yet, as initial strategy is being plotted and candidates are being recruited—A different analysis is gaining credence among political professionals: Rather than hurt the Democrats, the Bert Lance affair could very well damage the Republicans...
...They don't see any incentive...
...As one Republican operative summed up the current situation: "In many districts, we just can't persuade our better people to run...
Vol. 61 • April 1978 • No. 9
