The Salisbury Overture

...With a little backroom brawling and public rhetorical dueling, they and Smith should even manage to write the constitution that has already been broadly agreed upon...

...It might go something like this: "Look Josh, it's easier to deal with me than with Smith, right...

...The present Parliament is charged with passing the necessary transitional legislation, the most important being voter-registration, budget and antidiscrimination laws...

...Holders of 20 of the white parliamentary seats will be chosen by white voters only...

...who gave the British Labor government enough spine to stand up to the Tories' ranting about "kith and kin...

...Indeed, what bargaining power they had was largely supplied by the guerrilla pressure the absent parties exerted...

...If this showed, as intelligence sources believe it would, that the actual statistics are about 150,000 whites (not all citizens) and 9-10 million Africans, they could demand an adjustment of the seating figure to give the blacks more than the 78 per cent needed to reform the constitution...

...On March 3, the Prime Minister made a tongue-in-cheek offer to deal with these two groups if they laid down their arms—then quickly insured that this would not happen by launching a transborder attack on one of the bases in Zambia of the more moderate Zimbabwean nationalist leader, Joshua Nkomo...

...who sent Henry Kissinger and the Oval Office into a flat spin about Zimbabwe...

...Mugabe's are mostly trained by China, in Mozambique...

...So far, there have been few objective reports on how the "solution" has been received in Rhodesia itself...

...At that point Muzorewa, realizing he cannot hold on to power without the nationalists, will make his play for Nkomo...

...What is difficult to predict is when he will emerge...

...The most obvious criticisms of the agreement concern the entrenchment of settler power...

...As the New York Times pointed out in rejecting the pact, American interests "ride on a peaceful transition to black political power throughout southern Africa and the avoidance of conflicts that risk the involvement of outside powers...

...It will stipulate as well that no whites can team up with a minority African party to form a coalition government, putting the African majority into opposition...

...GairJe Russell Warren Howe is a veteran correspondent on African affairs...

...The odds are strong, however, that the sheer attractiveness of any promise of black-majority rule will give the agreement a certain initial popularity...

...For one thing, the 20 Europeans to be elected by whites only are unlikely to include any liberals, and the method of selecting the eight whites who will depend mostly on black votes practically insures the elimination of liberals in those seats as well...

...Let us suppose, though, that the guerrillas fail to disrupt the elections and that on December 31, at midnight, President Abel Muzorewa raises a new flag in Salisbury in the presence of delegations from South Africa and Transkei...

...In a similar vein, the trio should ask for a UN-conducted census...

...But even if Nkomo is absorbed in this fashion, there is a good chance that his commanders will fight on...

...For the rest of this year, Rhodesia will be ruled by the executive council, and administered by a cabinet whose every post will have a white minister, picked by Smith, and a black cominister, picked by the three African signatories to the agreement—each of whom will have the same number of appointments...

...At the same time, the unhappy "pact with the devil" the two divines and the elderly chief have signed will almost certainly lead to mounting disagreements along racial lines...

...Cuba would also help lead the guerrillas, or otherwise aid them in the field—for example, by air support...

...and, most important of all, who put Mugabe and Nkomo in the headlines and onto the red-carpet circuit...

...The Prime Minister, who engineered this "internal solution," will retain his job until the changeover...

...The prospect of bearded Cubans walking down the avenues of Salisbury might bring the South Africans to Muzorewa's side, whether he wants them there or not...

...The same is doubly true of Mugabe's more effective, more experienced commanders, should he make a deal...

...By that date, all those citizens over 18 who wish to vote should have registered and elected 72 persons to represent the country's huge African majority, and 28 whites to represent the remaining settlers...

...In short, Washington and London appear to have little choice save to watch from the sidelines while Smith, Muzorewa et al...

...He will also be faced with governing a country more wracked than ever by guerrilla war...

...On the other hand, Moscow has gladly backed Havana's intervention en masse in Angola and Ethiopia, and there seems no reason why it won't be equally obliging here...

...Of course, should Smith use his "poor-climate" option and decide not to hold elections or restrict them to "safe" parts of the country, the situation would become critical...

...What lies ahead The Salisbury Overture BY RUSSELL WARREN HOWE ABEL MUZOREWA Washington On March 3, Bishop Abel Mu-zorewa, the Reverend Nda-baninghi Sithole, Chief Jeremy Chirau and Prime Minister Ian Smith, signed an agreement that will give Rhodesia a black-majority government on December 31...

...This constitution is to remain in force for 10 years or two parliaments, whichever is longer, and will require a vote of 78 members to be amended...

...Voter registration should reveal some of the extensive census irregularities of the past...

...dance their awkward pas de quatre as the music gets faster, and they finally fall...

...but in Africa, it's not so much 'tomorrow' as 'next year.'") And it is harder stoll to say how—whether the guerrillas will ascend to power by peacefully ousting their civilian point men and Muzore-wa, or by bloody battle...

...Just one thing is certain at the moment: the guerrillas can count on Cuba for help...

...It will not determine the shape of a future Zimbabwe, as Rhodesia is to be known, it will not lead to the removal of UN (or U.S...

...sanctions, and it will receive few endorsements: The African states' rejection of the settlement will probably remain quasi-unanimous...

...In addition, it will approve the constitution and nominate the 16 Europeans to contest the eight common-roll seats in the year-end balloting...

...Yet as editorials in the Washington Post and the New York Times have pointed out, the Salisbury "contrivance" (the Times' word) can be a stopgap measure at best...

...The sole possible restriction on the extent of Cuba's intervention is Soviet logistics—mainly the airlift—which has sometimes been refused in the past (notably when Castro, a decade ago, wanted to send volunteers to North Vietnam...

...The West can try to lean on Smith, but this is unlikely to be any more effective than in the past, particularly now that he feels that he has achieved something—and made about the only agreement his white electors would support...

...Washington will undoubtedly counsel patience to Nkomo, but understands that to survive politically he must ignore the advice...

...It may ask China to rein in Mugabe, but Peking has no reason to do so...

...London, in an election year, may not actively oppose it, seeing it as at least a partial retreat by the settlers...

...the only road to peace is letting the nationalists come to town...

...This in turn will make any constitutional reform—requiring the votes of all African members and at least six whites—virtually impossible for 10 years...

...Before long, popular feeling can be expected to run as follows: Muzorewa is a puppet, as the nationalists say he is, who sold out just to become President...

...The U.S...

...A Cuban military mission is already in Zambia, training Nkomo's troops...

...South Africa could be asked to pressure Smith, but Pretoria probably views the "internal solution" as excellent and is unlikely to do anything to upset it...

...Neither the U.S...

...In any event, for the rest of this year, at least, Rhodesia will face mounting conflict and bloodshed...

...White intransigence and patronizing settler ways are sure to infuriate most of the black coministers once the African freshmen learn enough about government to start trying to change ministerial policies...

...That way, we'll head off Bob [Robert Mugabe, Nkomo's Chinese-backed Marxist rival and the leader of the other guerrilla army...

...the other eight will be elected by the common electoral roll (Africans and Europeans together), but from a list of 16 selected by the current white representatives...

...maybe I'll just declare martial law...

...The transitional government is committed to bringing about a ceasefire in the war with the nationalist guerrillas headed by Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe, who represent the nation's two main political parties and refused to participate in the Salisbury talks...

...In the meantime, an executive council composed of the three black leaders and Smith, each alternating as chairman, will write a constitution that the present Parliament—dominated by white conservatives—must approve...

...Anyway, here's the offer: I'll invite you to be my prime minister and give you all the powers...

...The guerrillas will then take the floor, with Russia and Cuba doing the choreography...

...nor Britain, though, was surprised by the Rhodesia accord...

...Later, when he gets tired of raiding alone, you can offer him the ambassadorship to Peking, and we'll absorb some of his boys into the Army, where we'll watch 'em like hawks...

...Anything else would mean ceding power to the three hastily formed parties with whom Smith negotiated, and who are chosen precisely because they had no forces of their own...

...will not actively back it, but is unlikely to take a line very different from England's...

...For they see themselves as the ones who threw Smith against the wall and forced him eat his words about "no African government in a thousand years...

...They could reasonably argue that if, say, the white population dropped to 10,000 a few years hence, there would have to be some adjustment...

...It is also to decide on the composition of the future armed forces and police, release persons detained without trial, review the sentences of political prisoners, organize voter-registration, and create a "climate conducive to the holding of free and democratic elections...

...Thus, Smith's three African partners—especially the widely popular Muzorewa—should pick up temporary credibility over the next few months if they make no dire mistakes...

...My own strong feeling, in fact, is that the eventual top man in Zimbabwe will be a guerrilla general...

...The Salisbury agreement puts the United States in an awkward position...

...And stepped-up guerrilla action, much of it directed against Africans to discourage voter-registration, for instance, is sure to bring opprobrium on the insurgents that the Smith Quartet will exploit...

...In future elections, the 16 candidates for the eight common-roll white seats are to be selected by the 28 white members of the outgoing legislature...

...One concession they should seek is a linking of the 72:28 black-white ratio in Parliament to the present official population figures of 267,000 whites with citizenship, and 6.7 million Africans...

...But lor that you have to be in Parliament, so I'll get someone with a safe seat to resign and you can run and win easily in a by-election...

...We'll figure out the constitutional angle afterward...

...with them in power, we will really govern ourselves—no whites stuffing parliamentary vetoes down our throats...

...Havana remains eager to spread its brand of revolution throughout the Third World, and it now finds Africa its best prospect...

...A Carter Administration staffer calls the arrangement "Transkei North," but in many ways Transkei—a puppet black enclave in South Africa—is more genuinely black-governed than Rhodesia will be for the rest of this crucial year...

...And I'm legitimate President of Zimbabwe, so 1 can make you an offer...

...The probable scenario is not hard to imagine...

...Yet with the guerrillas now forced to escalate this is precisely what will be difficult to avoid...

...The cabinet, thereby equally divided between whites and blacks, must then somehow initiate legislation by majority vote...

...Ironically, this will—as it has all along?strengthen Muzorewa's, Sithole's and Chirau's hands in trying to wrench a further concession or two from Smith...

...From the guerrillas' viewpoint, there is no alternative to escalation of their activities...

...The Bishop will immediately confront problems from wary whites guaranteed a decade of privilege, plus sniping from Sithole, Chirau and possibly others...

...Muzorewa can be advised to push for a slightly better deal, but his only leverage is the sound of guerrilla gunfire...

...the white exodus to South Africa, now slowing down, will resume...

...As outlined in the pact, the constitution will guarantee the independence of the judiciary and the public and armed services, compensation for any properties (read: big ranches) appropriated by the state, pensions (remit-table outside the country), and dual citizenship for those settlers wanting to retain British, South African or Portuguese nationality...

...From talks with Cuban officials, including one with a decisive voice in African policy, I learned that Castro is ready to provide forces to help Zambia defend its frontier from Rhodesian land and air incursions against guerrilla bases if Zambia asks for help, as President Kenneth Kaunda has said it might...

...For another, if a cease-fire is not achieved—as seems almost certain—and it proves impossible for the council to assure a "climate conducive to . . . free . .. elections," Smith need not hold elections at all...

...For their part, many whites will begin to decide that all Smith succeeded in doing was buy some time...

...As a Cuban official said to me earlier this month in Havana: "We Latinos have a mahana problem...

...They will be in a position to tell the whites: Make us more than puppets, because it's us or the terrs (white slang for the insurgents...

...Once Smith announced last year he was going to organize an "African-majority government" through an "internal solution," it was clear that he could not be prevented from doing so, and that there was little chance of getting him to change his mind...